1. Public Transport Pricing Strategies using an Agent-based Simulation Platform (A Case study of Singapore and Lessons for Pakistan) Speaker : Dr. Muhammad Adnan Associate Professor Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi National Conference on Sustainable Transport 18-19 December 2015 1/21

2. Outline Agent-Based Models and Simulation SimMobility PT Pricing Strategies Singapore Case Study Lessons for Pakistan 2

3. Agent-based Models and Simulation (1) Agent-based models and simulation (ABMS) is a relatively new approach to modelling complex systems composed of interacting, autonomous ‘agents’. ABMS is particularly applicable when agent adaptation and emergence are important considerations. A combination of several synergistic factors is moving ABMS forward rapidly. ◦ continuing development of specialized agent-based modelling methods and toolkits ◦ the widespread application of agent-based modelling ◦ the mounting collective experience of the agent-based modelling community ◦ the recognition that behaviour is an important missing element in existing models ◦ the increasing availability of micro-data to support agent-based models ◦ advances in computer performance 3

4. Integrated platform Collaborative research laboratory Development and evaluation of mobility portfolios SimMobility – Introduction (I) What bundle of options best performs under an inherently uncertain future

5. SimMobility - Introduction (II)

6. SimMobility- Introduction (III)

7. SimMobility-Introduction(IV) Applications ◦ Road and PT pricing strategies ◦ Innovative modes & services ◦ Crisis management ◦ Bus lane optimization ◦ Adaptive traffic control strategies 7

8. Public Transport Pricing (I) Pricing policies in public transportation: Off-peak periods → price discounts (up to free). [Peak periods → price markups]. Pricing policies can be: Time-based (e.g. before 7:30AM on weekdays). Location-based (e.g. outside CBD into CBD). User-based (e.g. applicable to senior citizens). Why are they used? To influence a demand shift from peak to off-peak periods, to improve the level of service, to attract commuters to more sustainable (public) travel modes etc. 8

9. Singapore Case Study 9

10. Singapore Experience 10 FREE PRE-PEAK TRAVEL ON MRT Source: Land Transport Authority Source: Ministry of Transport OFF-PEAK MONTHLY TRAVEL PASS

11. Free Pre-Peak MRT Policy Free Pre-peak Travel on Singapore MRT: As of 24 June 2013, free trips outside CBD into 16 (18) CBD stations before 7:45AM and up to 50 cents discount 7:45AM – 8:00AM. Implementation in SimMobility: Free trips from non-CBD zones to zones assigned to 16 CBD stations, with arrival before 8:00AM. Zones assigned to their centroid’s nearest stations. 11 OD flows from EZ-Link card data (August 2013)

12. Peak Ridership into CBD 12 EZ-Link tap-outs at CBD MRT stations 7:30 AM before after 8:30 AM before after The effects of the free pre-peak policy on peak ridership into CBD: After policy: higher pre-peak ridership and lower peak ridership. before after EZ-Link card data: before (2011) and after (2013):

13. Results/Policy Implementation Changes in KPIs: Peak ridership into CBD: ↓ -4.55% Average MRT trip fare: ↓ -1.92% (-2¢ ) Average MRT trip fare into CBD: ↓ -15.27% (-20¢) Operator’s revenue: ↓ -0.96% Number of MRT trips: ↑ 0.99% Number of MRT trips into CBD: ↑ 1.81% 13

14. Results/Policy Implementation MRT Mode Share for trips into CBD: Increased MRT mode share in the free period is mostly due to a time shift rather than a mode change. 14 Trips into CBDBefore PolicyAfter PolicyChange Before 8:00AM37.49%42.33%+4.84% Before 9:30AM41.63%42.81%+1.18% Whole day39.39%39.72%+0.33%

15. Lessons for Pakistan (I) Huge investments are being made in urban mobility sector ◦ Mass Transit Projects ◦ Intelligent Transport based Developments ◦ Investments in Road Infrastructure Urban Mobility-based policy decision needs to be analyzed in new and emerging modeling tools for better results ◦ Traditional forecasting models are being outdated and not able to address complex nature of interactions involved in such situation 15

16. Lessons for Pakistan (II) ABMS are now used in many developed countries for innovative policy scenarios for their operational systems ◦ (Lahore BRT can be a case in Pakistan i.e. data availability) for investigating policies such as  skip-stop operations, time-,  location-people-based pricing policy  multi-modal travel options in terms of innovative access and egress modes, such as bike sharing and free access or egress ride. 16

17. Thank You 17