1. Activities and Resources Baseline Plan during construction and financing of the LHC (2003- 2010) Luciano MAIANI Council, December 13, 2002

2. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan2 INTRODUCTION The Baseline Plan for the construction and financing of the LHC project (2003-2010), Doc. SPC/818/FC/4629, aims at providing a solid basis for the completion of the LHC and a corresponding revision of the 1996 agreement This document marks the conclusion of the complex processes set in motion by the LHC Cost to Completion Review made in 2001 It builds on a very large amount of work (Task Forces, ERC, Medium Term Plan June 2002, Action Plan, September 2002);

3. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan3 Throughout the process, a consistent picture has been developed by CERN Management whereby the Plan would contain a balanced package of measures: Reduction of non-LHC programme and savings Revision of the LHC schedule, to follow the industrial production; Prolongation of the LHC repayment period to 2010. First proposals made by CERN Management in March have been finalised in the Medium Term Plan 2003- 2006 presented in June.

4. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan4 The Plan is finalised to the construction and financing of the LHC; it provides a base-line only, certainly not an optimal picture of what CERN could do for European Particle Physics in the long run; CERN’s know-how and infrastructure under used. We hope Council may reconsider the scientific activities, with more resources added (P&M!)

5. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan5 Seven Pillars Activity Programme MTP 2002 (SPC/811; FC/4567) LHC in 2007; Limited scientific and R&D programme. Resource Plan: MaterialMTP 2002 (SPC/811; FC/4567) LHC cost to completion; Contingency Savings in Industrial Services Local Staff: M  P transfer if established. Resource Plan: Manpower CERN/FC/4628 CERN-wide analysis for the period 2—3-2010 Indexation of the expenditure budget during the LHC construction periodCERN/FC/4619/Rev. Builds a margin against cost escalation of LHC contracts Monitoring and Control Tools Action Plan (FC/4591; CC/2461) Finance and Programme Control; Earned Value Management; Annual LHC Cost & Schedule Review, first results; Audit Committee. Indexation of MS/HS Contributions over the periodthis document Indexation to keep purchasing power over 2003-2010 Loan from the EIBFC/4608 (recommended by FC, Nov.6)

6. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan6 2. Scientific Activity of CERN, 2003-2010 The phasing out of a broad scientific programme has continued after LEP2000. Today, the whole of CERN is committed to the LHC, with a limited number of ring-fenced parallel activities To keep a minimum of scientific diversity To preserve vital options for CERN’s future

7. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan7 Resources for the LHC 2003-2010, Personnel+Material

8. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan8 LHC Experiments LHC experiments fully engaged in the construction phase, to have detectors ready for the LHC physics run in 2007. Experiments have agreed to live within the limits of the pledged funds at any time. ALICE, ATLAS and CMS. Contingency plans, compatible with the available funds have been reviewed by the LHCC and presented to the RRBs Plans include staging and deferrals of items that will only be needed later, for high-luminosity running. No cost over-run has been identified so far by LHCb.

9. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan9 LHC Computing Of particular interest, the work on computing facilities for physics data analysis and computational Grids, and on advanced electronics techniques for detector readout systems. The R&D phase (phase 1) of the LHC Computing Grid (LCG) project started in 2001. The construction phase (phase 2) of the LCG project will extend over 2006-2008. Catalyse the development of data-intensive Grid computing, pursuing open solutions to fulfill the challenging requirements of science at CERN's Large Hadron Collider; Open environment where investments on applied research for data-intensive Grid computing can be made by government, academia and industry.

10. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan10 The Scientific Programme Budget line for Fixed Target Experiments established from 2006 onwards dotted lines = = extensions yet to be approved

11. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan11 The experimental programme described above implies the support of a large number of external users. about 6500 registered CERN users (4750 of which are from the Member States) in 2002. On average some 2000 of these people are on site at any one time, requiring support of one kind or another. This demonstrates the vitality of the scientific programme of the Organization but also inevitably places a heavy burden on the infrastructure. Users

12. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan12 3. Budget Estimates Basically coincide with those given in the Medium Term Plan, June 2002, in particular for the scientific programme, the cost to completion of the LHC and the CERN share to Detector construction. Fully consistent with the Draft Budget for 2003

13. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan13 Tab. 1A. CERN share of LHC Detectors: all-out estimate Includes cost escalation of contracts and PE cost Gives an absolute ceiling to the total cost to CERN (current money) 1995-20012002-2007Total CERN share of detectors construction+C&I125.6144270 Common construction, C&I, M&O57.4115172 Cost Escalation21 TOTAL MATERIALS463 Personnel329.7436766 GRAND TOTAL 1248 19 Indexation of PE cost

14. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan14 Tab. 6A. LHC construction: all-out estimate Includes cost escalation of contracts and PE cost Gives an absolute ceiling to the total cost to CERN (current prices) 1995-20012002-2007Total Machine Hardware, Installation & Experimental Areas1006.020713077 Test & Preoperation (includes additional infrastructures, 94 MCHF) 38.4226264 LHC Injectors35.23671 Contingency140 Cost Escalation of contracts191 TOTAL MATERIALS3743 Personnel368.56611029 GRAND TOTAL4802 30 Indexation of PE cost

15. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan15 Annual LHC Cost&Schedule Review Committee –J. Peoples (FNAL), Chair –R. Bacher (DESY) –M. Cox (JET) –M. Harrison (BNL) –M. Pannier (Min. Finances, France) –A. Wrulich (PSI) Met on Oct. 21 to 23 Conclusions to be included in the December 2002 LHC Status Report. Committee was asked to respond to three issues whether the LHC Project Cost-to-Completion could be used as a baseline cost estimate for tracking project cost performance; whether current project schedule could be used as a baseline schedule for tracking project performance; to evaluate the tools that project team currently uses and plans to use to monitor the cost and schedule performance.

16. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan16 Recommendations (Dec. 1, 2002) –that CERN Management adopt the LHC Project Cost-to-Completion estimate (hereafter Cost-to-Completion) of 3,220 MCHF, as the project cost baseline for tracking the project cost performance for the remainder of the project. –that CERN Management adopt the current project schedule that forecasts the start of commissioning on April 2007 for tracking the project schedule performance for the remainder of the project. –that the LHC project team continue to use the project tools that are currently in use and that they quickly move to complete and deploy the proposed earned value system (EVM), since it will provide additional tools to closely monitor cost and schedule performance. Note: 3220=3077+143

17. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan17 Extra costs (wrt. Dec. 2001) submitted to the Comittee “ The Project Director informed the Committee that two cost overruns had occurred since the Cost-to-Completion had been prepared. These were 9 MCHF in civil engineering and 7 MCHF in magnet cryostats.” Are reported in the LHC Status Report, Dec.2002 To be added to the Cost to Completion and compensated from the contingency, in next MTP, June 2003

18. 4. Income and related Budgetary Balance 4.1 Regular Contribution The level of the annual contribution base is 937.5 MCHF at 1995 prices (Council, Dec. 1994) This basis reduced by 9.3% (in stages) to reach 850.3 MCHF, at 1995 prices, from 2001 onwards. The regular contribution is the sum of this base and of the contributions to the budget of six Member States. Planning proceeds on the basis of a 2% cost-variation increase per year model for expenditure. From 1998 to 2005 inclusive, the Host States’ contribution are indexed by 2% per year while the regular contributions of the other Member States are indexed by 1%. From 2006 onwards, we ask Council to “make its best effort to index the regular contributions according to the calculated overall Cost Variation Index”.

19. Tab. 10. Anticipated Budgetary Position (MCHF, current prices) Advanced contributions from MS can ease the burden of the interests cost…and liberate resources for new activities!

20. Council. Dec. 12, 2002L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan20 6. CONCLUSIONS The Baseline Plan is the result of an impressive amount of work during the last year, by CERN Staff, the ERC and other external collaborators; A very detailed and solid evaluation of programmes, resources (P and M) and costs; A stable cost estimate of the LHC programme; The Plan provides a tough but solid and viable basis for the LHC completion in 2007.