1. Application of the urbanized MM5 to the Houston-Galveston region by R. Bornstein*, H. Taha, R. Balmori, SJSU S. Dupont, J. Ching, RTP/EPA/NOAA A. Martilli, UBC S. Stetson, SWS, Inc. D. Byun, U of Houston S. Burian, U of Utah *pblmodel@hotmail.com 27 th NATO/CCMS/ITM Meeting Banff, Alberta, Canada October 2004

2. OUTLINE PROJECT GOALS PROJECT GOALS uMM5 CONFIGURATION uMM5 CONFIGURATION SYNOPTIC SUMMARY: 700 MB & SFC SYNOPTIC SUMMARY: 700 MB & SFC DOMAIN 1: MM5 WINDS VS NWS DOMAIN 1: MM5 WINDS VS NWS MM5 WINDS (MESO CONVENTION) MM5 WINDS (MESO CONVENTION) FULL BARB = 1 M/S FULL BARB = 1 M/S FLAG = 5 M/S FLAG = 5 M/S DOMAINS 2-4: MM5 WINDs DOMAINS 2-4: MM5 WINDs DOMAIN 5: uMM5 TEMPs & UHIs DOMAIN 5: uMM5 TEMPs & UHIs CONCLUSION CONCLUSION

3.  Overall: Evaluate impacts of de- & re-forestation on Houston O 3 levels (Byun, USFS)  SIP Episode: Aug-Sept Texas2000 in Houston  MetModel: EPA uMM5 (Martilli, Dupont, Ching)  Improved: uMM5 input (Burian, Stetson)  Machine: SJSU 96 CPU cluster (Balmori)  Evaluate (Taha):  uMM5 vs. MM5 performance  uMM5 sensitivity to LU/LC changes Project Summary:

4. 5-domain configuration, D5 is “urbanized” Resolution: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 km Grid dimensions (excluding surface): 43×53×28, 55×55×28, 100×100×28, 136×151×28, 133×141×48.

6. Urbanization Techniques Urbanize: surface, SBL, & PBL momentum, Urbanize: surface, SBL, & PBL momentum, thermo, & TKE Eqs Allows prediction within UCL Allows prediction within UCL From vegetation canopy-model of Yamada (1982) From vegetation canopy-model of Yamada (1982) Veg parameters replaced with urban (GIS/RS) terms Veg parameters replaced with urban (GIS/RS) terms Brown and Williams 1998 Brown and Williams 1998 Masson 2000 Masson 2000 Sievers 2001 Sievers 2001 Martilli et al. 2001 (in TVM) Martilli et al. 2001 (in TVM) Dupont et al. 2003 (in MM5) Dupont et al. 2003 (in MM5) LLNL 2004 LLNL 2004

7.  From Masson (2000)

8. uMM5 input + as f (x, y) in D-05 (from Burian, Stetson, USFS)  land use (38 categories)  roughness elements  anthropogenic heat as f (t)  vegetation and building heights  paved surface fractions  drag-force coefficients for buildings & vegy  building height-to-width, wall-to-plan, & impervious-area ratios  building frontal, building plan, & and rooftop area-densities  vegetation top- and area-densities  ε, cρ, α, etc. of walls and roofs

9. From Stetson: high- resolution Houston z o data

10. Base-case (current) vegetation cover (urban min)

11. Modeled increases in vegetation cover (urban max) Values are 0.1 of those in previous chart

12. MM5 vs. uMM5: Preview of Results uMM5 takes longer than MM5 uMM5 takes longer than MM5 with 1-CPU: 8 times longer with 1-CPU: 8 times longer with 96-CPU: only 3 times longer with 96-CPU: only 3 times longer each-day of our uMM5 simulation took each-day of our uMM5 simulation took 16.0 days with 1-CPU 16.0 days with 1-CPU 4.5 hours with 96-CPU 4.5 hours with 96-CPU uMM5 gives better: uMM5 gives better: TKE, UHIs, & winds

20. Synoptic Preview Pre-episode day Pre-episode day 700 hPa: flow NE of Houston was from SE 700 hPa: flow NE of Houston was from SE Sfc: Sea-breeze frontal formation Sfc: Sea-breeze frontal formation Episode day Episode day 700 hPa: flow now from NE  700 hPa: flow now from NE  opposition to onshore sea-breeze flow opposition to onshore sea-breeze flow Sfc: offshore cold-core low forms  Sfc: offshore cold-core low forms  along-shore (NE to SW) coastal-flow  along-shore (NE to SW) coastal-flow  ozone episode ozone episode NWS vs. MM5 NWS vs. MM5 NWS charts show only subtle changes NWS charts show only subtle changes MM5 provides the details MM5 provides the details

21. 1200 UTC (0700 DST) 24 AUG 700 mb 700 mb Pre-episode AM Pre-episode AM SE flow NE of Houston SE flow NE of Houston

22. 1200 UTC (0700 DST) 25 AUG 700 mb 700 mb Episode AM Episode AM Opposing NE flow NE of Houston Opposing NE flow NE of Houston Will cause con with sfc SB V Will cause con with sfc SB V

23. 1200 UTC (0700 DST) 25 AUG Sfc chart Sfc chart Episode AM Episode AM Not much detail Not much detail Similar to day b/f & after Similar to day b/f & after

24. MM5 results: Preview Domain 1: Domain 1: Captures NWS synoptic features (change in 700 hPa flow-direction NE of Houston) Captures NWS synoptic features (change in 700 hPa flow-direction NE of Houston) Indicates off-shore feature (cold-core L) not on NWS charts Indicates off-shore feature (cold-core L) not on NWS charts Domains 2-4: shows details of off-shore L Domains 2-4: shows details of off-shore L Domain: 5: shows UHI effects Domain: 5: shows UHI effects

25. Coastal Cold-Core L Episode day 3 PM Domains 1-3

26. Domain 4 (3 PM) : Note cold-core L off of Houston on O 3 day (25 th )

27. Domain 4: weak sea breeze meets inland NE-flow Domain 5: Finer details of sea breeze and NE-flow 4 th (MM5) & 5 th (uMM5) Domains: Non-episode day at 2 PM

28. Domain 3 (12 km) 4 PM: cold-core L (from where?)

29. 1 km uMM5 11 PM: nocturnal UHI

30. 1 km uMM5 3 PM: daytime UHI

31. 1 km Domain: end of daytime UHI (8 PM 21 Aug) Upper L: MM5 Upper L: MM5 Upper R: uMM5 Upper R: uMM5 Lower L: uMM5-MM5 Lower L: uMM5-MM5 uMM5  1.5 K warmer (stronger UHI) uMM5  1.5 K warmer (stronger UHI) Blob is LU/LC error Blob is LU/LC error

32. 1km Domain: end of night UHI: 9 AM 22 Aug Upper L: MM5 Upper L: MM5 Upper R: uMM5 Upper R: uMM5 Lower L: MM5-uMM5 Lower L: MM5-uMM5 uMM5  1.5 K cooler (weaker UHI) uMM5  1.5 K cooler (weaker UHI)

33. Explanation of uMM5 UHI & UCI Wet soil TI > urban TI > dry soil TI Wet soil TI > urban TI > dry soil TI Urban an area surrounded by wet soil thus has Urban an area surrounded by wet soil thus has Daytime UHI (as urban area warms faster than soil) Daytime UHI (as urban area warms faster than soil) Nighttime UCI (as urban area cools faster than soil) Nighttime UCI (as urban area cools faster than soil) Reverse true with dry rural soil Reverse true with dry rural soil Current results thus consistent with wet rural soil (as expected) around Houston, as uMM5 produced daytime warming & nighttime cooling over urban Houston Current results thus consistent with wet rural soil (as expected) around Houston, as uMM5 produced daytime warming & nighttime cooling over urban Houston

34. Ongoing & future efforts Additional analysis of current simulation results Additional analysis of current simulation results Additional simulations on new 106 CPU cluster Additional simulations on new 106 CPU cluster Use planned 2005-6 Houston field- study (?) data to determine atm and (GIS/RS) urban parameters Use planned 2005-6 Houston field- study (?) data to determine atm and (GIS/RS) urban parameters

35. THE END

37. Domain 1: 7 AM 24 AUG 700 mb 700 mb Pre-episode Pre-episode Weak off- shore L (not in NWS) Weak off- shore L (not in NWS) Weak NE flow NE of cityWeak NE flow NE of city

38. Domain 1: 0700 DST 25 AUG 700 mb 700 mb Episode AM Episode AM Stronger off- shore L Stronger off- shore L Stronger NE ff NE of city Stronger NE ff NE of city Will cause con with SB ff Will cause con with SB ff

39. Domain 1: 1800 DST 23 AUG Sfc chart Sfc chart Pre-episode Pre-episode On-shore SB On-shore SB Not much difference at same time on next 2 days Not much difference at same time on next 2 days Need to see inner domains Need to see inner domains