1. Presented to:GMU System-Wide Modeling Workshop By: Joseph Post, ATO NextGen & Ops Planning Date: 10 December 2008 Federal Aviation Administration FAA System-Wide Modeling Uses and Shortfalls

2. Federal Aviation Administration 2 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Uses of System-Wide Models NextGen Overview Modeling Shortcomings –ATM Domain Airport Terminal En Route Oceanic Flow Control Airline Operations Center (AOC) –Model Use Overview If we can’t model the current system, how can we model this thing? NextGen

3. Federal Aviation Administration 3 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 NAS Strategy Simulator AwSim/AERALIB NASPAC ATO Modeling Suite SIMMOD RDSIM/ADSIM

4. Federal Aviation Administration 4 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Uses of System-Wide Models Performance Assessment Requirements Analysis Cost-Benefit Analysis Development

5. Federal Aviation Administration 5 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.) Portfolio optimization The Challenge:To select an optimum portfolio of aviation investments so as to maximize the overall economic return, subject to a budget constraint. Consumer Surplus Producer Surplus Government Costs Environmental Costs

6. Federal Aviation Administration 6 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.) System-wide performance assessment Model System  Target Performance -  Expectations Demand “The Performance Loop”

7. Federal Aviation Administration 7 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 NextGen Implementation Plan 43 Mid-Term Capabilities Air Traffic Operations Airport Development Aircraft & Operator Requirements NextGen FY0910111213141516171819 Capital Programs ADS-BERAM SWIMTFM-M DataCommTMA NNEWWAAS NAS Voice SwitchLAAS Aircraft Roadmap 7 Solution Sets Increase collaborative ATM Increase flexibility in the terminal environment Increase arrivals/departures at high-density airports Initiate trajectory-based operations Reduce weather impacts Improve safety, security, and environmental performance Transform facilities 2 Solution Sets 35 OEP airports 15 metropolitan areas

8. Federal Aviation Administration 8 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 TBO Initiate Trajectory Based Operations

9. Federal Aviation Administration 9 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 HiDensity Solution Set Increase Arrival/Departures at High Density Airports

10. Federal Aviation Administration 10 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Flex Terminal Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Area

11. Federal Aviation Administration 11 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Collaborative ATM Improve Collaborative ATM

12. Federal Aviation Administration 12 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Weather Reduce Weather Impact

13. Federal Aviation Administration 13 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Airport Modeling Shortfalls Simplistic airport capacity –Single airport configuration Convection weather –Airport closure Departure release Surface congestion –Taxiways –Gates –De-icing Tail number tracking –Delay propagation Passenger tracking –Connections Coupled

14. Federal Aviation Administration 14 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Terminal Modeling Shortfalls Simplistic terminal airspace –Airport coupling –Terminal capacity Aircraft trajectories –Route of flight –STARs –DPs Convection weather –Re-routing/arrival gate closure

15. Federal Aviation Administration 15 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 En Route Modeling Shortfalls Static sector capacity –Monitor Alert Parameter (MAP) Static sector definition Response to sector overload –Re-routing Metering –Time-based metering –Miles-In-Trail (MIT) Convective weather –Dynamic sector capacity –Tactical re-routes Continuous Descent Approaches (CDAs)/ Tailored Arrivals

16. Federal Aviation Administration 16 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Oceanic Modeling Shortfalls Oceanic airspace!

17. Federal Aviation Administration 17 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Flow Control Modeling Shortfalls Ground stops/ground delays –Airport constraints (GDPs) –Airspace constraints (AFPs) Strategic re-routes –Severe Weather Avoidance Program (SWAP) –Canadian Off-load

18. Federal Aviation Administration 18 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 AOC Modeling Shortfalls Cancellations Ground Delay Program (GDP) response Re-routes

19. Federal Aviation Administration 19 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Model Use Shortfalls Ease of Set-up Monte Carlo replication –Demand Flight schedules OD pairs Equipment –Aircraft performance –Routings –Capacities/airport configurations –TFM –etc. Visualization Validation

20. Federal Aviation Administration 20 FAA System-Wide Modeling 10 December 2008 Questions?