1. Sustainable Development: Why the Focus on Population? Dr. Maria Sophia Aguirre Department of Business and Economics The Catholic University of America University of Virginia October 3, 2004

2. Can the Earth Sustain More People?  Population is a problem, therefore they answer no:  The earth is limited -- the more we are, the poorer we will be.  The family is a hostile place for woman and children. Therefore it has to be monitored and regulated by international laws and institutions if poverty among women is to be eradicated.  P opulation threatens government stability in developing countries  Population is a solution, therefore they answer yes:  Healthy families are needed for the economy to fulfill its purpose: Cover basic needs, generate profits, and contribute towards the wellbeing of people  Numbers in themselves do not equal poverty; rather, poorly structured families and societies as well as economies foster poverty.

3. How People Perceive the Issue of Population is Critical  It is by these perceptions that international and national legislative policies are formulated, and local medical plans and sex education classes are designed.  Thus, it is equally critical that people ensure that their perceptions are grounded, not in rhetoric and emotions, but in established scientific and empirical data.

4. Sustainable Development  It is a policy approach that has gained popularity in recent years, especially in international circles.  The UN and Bretton Woods institutions have taken an active role in defining “sustainable development.”  By attaching a “population problem” stand they have made population control its implicit meaning.  Therefore, population policies have become the primary tool used to ‘promote’ economic development and to protect the environment.

5. I Would Like to Argue  The focus on family and population is not necessarily incorrect, but both the population control policies used and the approach of some international organizations to the family in the past twenty some years are mistaken.  This is so because:  Healthy families are essential for poverty reduction as they have a direct impact on the quality of human, moral, and social capital, and therefore, on the resources and the purpose of economic activity and structures.  Resources are use inefficiently as they are directed towards initiatives that weaken families and divert resources from initiatives that will address effectively weak social and economic structures. This, in turn, hampers real economic growth and perpetuates poverty.

6. On this point, I have good company Nobel Laureate, 1992  “No discussion of human capital can omit the influence of families on the knowledge, skills, values, and habits of their children and therefore on their present and future productivity.” Becker (1991) Nobel Laureate, 1998  “The human development approach must tale full note of the robust role of the human capital, while at the same time retaining clarity about what the ends and means respectively are. What needs to be avoided is to see human beings as merely means of production and material prosperity.” Sen (1994)

7. Players and Perspectives in the Debate  The Population Control Perspectives  The Women's Rights Perspective  The Children's Rights Perspectives  Sexual and Reproductive Rights Perspective  The Gender Perspective

8. 1. The Population Control Argument  First: rapid growth in population means the spread of poverty and aggravates conditions such as as poor health, malnutrition, illiteracy, and unemployment (Bucharest, 1974)  Second: population threatens government stability in developing countries, and encourages confrontation between developed and developing countries (Memorandum 200)  Third: it pushes future generations to scarcity, and an unsustainable environment carrying capacity (Rio, 1992)  Fourth: it sees population growth to be symptomatic of the larger problem of women's oppression—the more children a woman has, the less opportunity she has for her own self- actualization and development (Cairo, 1994 and Beijing, 1995)

9. 2. The Women's Rights Perspectives  Family is seen as a factor that oppresses and subordinates women socially because children curtails the mother’s development.  Access to 'reproductive information and services' frees women from this situation, since ignorance makes women have more children than they desire.  Women have the right to be women, whether they work in the home or outside of it. Motherhood and the family do not oppress women, but rather offer women fuller expression.  Women become a policy tool, by reducing them to their reproductive and sexual traits or capacities, they fail to recognize the fullest dimensions of women

10. 3. The Children's Rights Perspectives  Normal perspective: holds children as the recipients of parental protection and guidance. Parents held their rights in their stead until they grew out of minority status.  Recent perspective: wishes to endow children with greater autonomy, regardless of age, and argues that these autonomous children hold certain rights over and against their parents.  Both views are present in the 1989 Convention on the Rights of the Child.  The Recent perspective: seriously challenges the parental rights recognized by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights drives a wedge in the parent-child relationship by setting parent and child on equal footing neglects any understanding of an organic relationship of parents and children.

11. 4. Arguments for Sexual and Reproductive Rights  Reproductive Health  An individual Good  Population Stabilization  A Common Good

12. A. Reproductive Health: An Individual Good  It is an end in its own right and a ‘foundation stone’ to achieve women’s empowerment, education and health. Thus education and its promotion is for the individual good.  Reproductive health and universal access to contraception are integral to achieve equality between men and women  Therefore, it is the responsibility of the government to ensure the universal exercise of this human right

13. B. Reproductive Health: A Common Good  It is a foundation stone of prosperity and better quality of life for all people. They are essential to achieve ‘sustainable development.’  The global and national needs are sustainable development and environmental preservation, and people are the most important threat.  ‘Accordingly, global and national needs coincide with personal rights and interests’ (UNFPA’98)  The assumption underlying this argument is the Malthusian Theory of population and resources.

14. Therefore, the sexual and reproductive rights perspective  Ties together the population control perspective and the women's rights perspective, and increasingly, also children's rights.  Argues that if information is made available, women will use these services and will have fewer children. This, in turn, will free women from home and enable their personal development. It will also curbs population growth.  Is supported by the UN Conferences of the past twenty-five years,  Is based, on the false premises that all women want fewer children, motherhood is an oppressive institution, and population growth is a negative occurrence. It also ignores the problems of an aging population.

15.  They argue that the traditional binary understanding of gender as male and female restricts personal sexual expression.  The gay-lesbian lobby, radical women's rights groups, and population control groups such as the International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF), are the main supporters of an understanding of gender that allows for bisexual, transsexual, homosexual, etc.  The population control perspective is supportive of alternative gender language insofar as non-heterosexual couples imply fewer children, while the gay-lesbian lobby and radical women’s groups want greater sexual ‘freedom of expression.’ 5. The Gender Perspective

16. Economic Theories  Classical Economic Growth: Malthusian Theory picked up by Coals and Hoover (1958)  Neo-Classical Theory: Solow (1956)  Human Capital Theory: Gary Becker  Neo-Malthusian Theory: Ehrlich (1968) and Hardin (1968)

17. Classical Economic Growth  The foundation of the relationship between population growth and real growth is Malthus' Theory of Population and Income (1798 Essay in the Principle of Population.)  Population grows geometrically while subsistence (food) increases at an arithmetic ratio.  Thus, there is an inverse relationship between population growth and development.  Man’s ability to increase his food supply is constrained in three particular ways: through land scarcity, limit productive capacity of cultivated land, and the law of diminishing returns.

18. The inverse relationship between population and growth The consumption effect The production effect on private and public goods Age ‑ Distribution effect Dilution of Capital

19. Summary  Assuming a fixed level of resources, it predicts a decrease in per capita income in two ways: more consumers divide any given amount of goods each worker produces less because there is less capital, private and public, per worker  In addition: growing number of young children poses an additional burden on consumption because they consume but they do not produce. population growth hinders economic growth because, by reducing savings and education, it reduces investment.  Key assumption in this theory is the ceteris paribus

20. Classical Theory Fails Both Theoretically and Empirically Analysis at both levels suggest that there is no statistically proven simple relationship between population growth and economic growth, population size and economic growth, population size and resources, or population growth and environment. Thus, empirical evidence suggests that population growth is not the only relevant variable for development and, therefore, that there is no support for Malthus' dynamic growth theory.

21. Neo-Classical Theory  Focus on economic growth through investment, ignoring any link between population and the economy.  The adjustments in growth take place due to the behavior of investment in physical capital.  Growth is a worldwide process and country characteristics determine the relative level of income.  Shocks may only play a minor role in determining the long-run path of output, despite being an important determinant of variance in decade-long growth rates.

22.  In certain cases, these models have been able to explain the experience of developed countries, they have failed to explain worldwide experience.  Studies of OECD countries support Neo- Classical theory. (Dowrick and Nguyen, 1989)  In Newly Industrialized Countries (NIC) human as well as physical capital investment took place. (Blackburn and Ravn, 1995)

23. Human Capital Theory  This model relates the concept of human capital to family and growth.  Human capital is introduced as an important source of economic development that depends on advances in technological and scientific knowledge.  A key assumption: the rate of return on investments in human capital rises as the stock of human capital increases.  For this reason, resources are not fixed and may increase as population increases.

24.  Population growth, when studied in the light of human capital theory, leads to multiple equilibrium points. (Becker, 1993)  He concluded that this means that history and luck are critical determinants of a country's growth experience.  Thus, population growth is not the only determining factor in economic development but training and educational programs together with physical capital investment are the important factors.

25.  Developed countries with negative fertility rates and undeveloped countries would benefit from an expansion of both the pool of human capital and strengthening of the family as the principle promoter of education and quality of life.  Diminishing returns? Becker found the answer to this issue in the increase of labor productivity due to education and consequently rejects the Malthusian assumption of fixed resources.

26. Neo-Malthusian Theory Two main sub-categories –The Limited Resource Perspective: takes the classic Malthusian argument and applies it to all natural resources –The Socio-Biological Perspective: almost acting as a sub-set of the former, treats the environment as a limited resource and regards people as a threat to the biodiversity and ecological balance of that resource.

27. “Amazing at it seems, providing people in developing nations access to Family Planning is a critical first step in saving much of the 40 million acres of tropical rainforest being lost each year. (…) In places where family planning programs already provide voluntary contraception, health care and sex education, most women are choosing smaller families. This, in turn, eases the intense pressure on our environment's natural resources.” (…) “find out what Americans can do to help make international family planning a reality.” U.S. News and World Report

28. ‘hundreds of millions’ of people will die of starvation by the 1970s, 65 million Americans will starve, the population of the U.S. will decline by 22.6 million persons, and England will cease to exist by 2000. (Ehrlic, 1968) The population connection must be made in the public mind. Action to end the population explosion humanely and start a gradual population decline must become a top item on the human agenda: the human birthrate must be lowered to slightly below the human death rate as soon as possible. There still may be time to limit the scope of impending catastrophe, but not much time. … More frequent droughts, more damaged crops and famines, more dying forests, more smog, more international conflicts, more epidemics, more gridlock, more crime, more sewage swimming, and other extreme unpleasantness will mark our course. (Ehrlich and Ehrlich,1990)

29. Resources At A Glance In 1998, 150 countries enjoyed a life expectancy at birth of more than 70 years, up from 55 countries in 1990. The number of developing countries in the group has more than tripled. (World Development Report, 2000/2001) Between 1990 and 2000 the share of the population with access to safe water nearly doubled, from 40% to 85%. (Human Development Report, 2003) Despite rapid population growth, food production per capita increased by nearly 25% during 1990-97. The per capita daily supply of calories rose from less than 2,500 to 2,750, and that of protein from 71 grams to 76. (UNDP 1999 Human Development Report) Cropland, which includes land devoted to temporary and permanent crops, temporary meadows, market and kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow, consumes 11% of the total land area in the world. (World Bank, 1998/99 World Development Report) GDP per unit of energy use (PPP US$ per kg of oil equivalent) grew from 3.2 to 4.6 in developing countries and from 3.8 to 4.9 in developed countries (Human Development Report, 2003) Carbon dioxide emissions per capita grew from 1.6 in 1990 to 1.9 in developing countries and from 10.5 to 10.8 in developed countries. (Human Development Report, 2003) Water Consumption rates: US 600 liters/day per person EU 200 liters/ day per person Africa 30 liters/day per person Decreasing rate of growth: the UN estimates that the world population will be 8.9 billion in 2050; earlier estimates were 9.4 billion by 2035 and 10 billion by 2050. (UN 1998 Revision of the World Population Estimates and Projections) Add to this the concerns with population implosion. Decreasing fertility on a global scale (1980-1998) Low Income countries4.3 to 3.1 Middle income3.7 to 2.5 High Income1.8 to 1.7

30.  Malthus and his followers are mistaken on both the demand and the supply side: On the demand side because population does not follow a geometric growth as Malthus predicted. On the supply side because the resources are not easily extinguished; rather, they are created and expanded by the people who are born, live and work.  His followers have failed to produce sound projections. They lacks sound data and sound logic.

31.  There is a positive correlation between human capital, infrastructure and economic growth healthy institutions and economic development health and income per capita  These positive correlations reflect an essential causal link running from human capital to healthy institutions (social capital) infrastructure and technology  Life expectancy is a significant predictor of economic growth We know from economic analysis that in economic development

32. The family faces serious health and poverty problems, especially in the developing world Lack of income and assets to attain basic needs: –Human Assets: basic labor, education, health, skills –Natural assets: inputs of production –Physical access: infrastructure –Financial assets: access to savings and credit –Social assets: instructions that are functional and not corrupted. Vulnerability to adverse shocks, linked to an inability to cope with it

33. Environmental Health, Welfare and Living Conditions in Low Income Countries Indicator% access House Connection: water48 / 99 House Connection: sewerage46 / 99 House Connection: electricity62 / 100 Water consumption (liter per person)30 / 600 Wastewater treated29 / 97 Solid waste disposal: landfill or incinerated31 / 78 Solid waste disposal: other (dump,recycled,etc.)66 / 22 Paved Road19 / 94 Literacy49 / 100 Under-five mortality (per 1000)107 / 6 Public Expenditures on Health (%GDP)1.3 / 6.2

34. Two side Effects  Aging Population  The Problem of Health

35. Aging Population: Facts  No debate over if or when an aging population will manifest itself: by 2035 China will have a reversed age pyramid  From 2000 to 2025, people above 65 will triple while youngsters under 15 will increase by only 6%  The dependency ratio (defined as the percentage of the population aged 65+ over the percentage of the population aged 15-64) will increase from an average of 50% in 1995, to an average of 85%-90% by the year 2050.  Today in China only 44.9 % of the urban employees and 85.4 % of the retirees covered

36. Speed of Population Aging Number of years for % of population aged 65 and over to rise from 7% to 14% Source: US Census Bureau, 2000

37. China’s Population Distribution, 2000 Source: State Statistical Bureau (200 2), Beijing, China and The World Factbook, 2003

38. Aging Trap  Social security system funding: the family can not support the elderly  Competition between the younger and older people  Early retirement  To provide for the economic needs of the elderly, there is a reduction of funding allocated to training new generations  The transmission of cultural, scientific, technical, artistic, moral and religious goods is endangered: "moroseness”  Saving rates are affected by a society's age structure, mirroring the change in an individual's saving rate over the life cycle.

39. The people faces serious health problems, especially in the developing world  The main health risks and causes of death for men and women are:  Cardiovascular diseases (kills 16.7 million)  Malignant neoplasms (cancer) (kills 7.1 million per year)  Injuries (kills 5.2 million)  Respiratory diseases (kills 3.7 million)  Perinatal conditions (kills 2.5 million)  Respiratory infections (kills 3.9 million)  HIV/AIDS (produces 5 million new cases and kills 2.9 million)  Diarrhoeal Diseases (kills 1.8 million per year)  Tuberculosis (produces 8 million new cases per year and kills 1.8 million people per year)  Malaria ( produces 300-500 million new cases per year and kills 1.2 million)  Maternal condition (kills 540,000 per year)  These diseases are rare and treatment is accessible in developed countries and their cost is remarkably low. WHO, World Health Report, 2003, Annex Table 3.

40. Statistics of HIV/AIDS per Region, 2003 RegionsBegin- ning Persons Infected with HIV New persons Infected with HIV Rate of Adults infected with HIV Rate of women infected with HIV Modes of Transmission Sub-Sahara AfricaEnd 70s 25 million 3 million7.5%55% Hetero Northern Africa and Middle East End 80s 480,000 75,0000.2%40% Hetero, IDU South AsiaEnd 80s 6.5 million 850,0000.6%35% Hetero East and Pacific Asia End 80s 900,000 200,0000.1%20% IDU,Hetero, MSM Latin-AmericaEnd 70s 1.6 million 200,0000.6%30% MSM, IDU, Hetero CaribbeanEnd 70s 430,000 52,0002.3%50% Hetero, MSM Central Asia and Europe Begin. 90s 1.3 million 360,0000.6%20% IDU Western EuropeEnd 70s 580,000 20,0000.3%25% MSM, IDU North AmericaEnd 70s 1 million 44,0000.6%20% MSM, IDU, Hetero Australia and New Zeeland End 70s 32,000 5,0000.2%10% MSM Total 37.8 Million 8.4 million1.1%48%

41. Low Cost Effective Interventions Cost of Treatment and (annual cost per capita) US Dollars TreatmentCostsEffectiveness Chemotherapy for TB (6 months )$20.00 ($0.60) 95% Contraceptives (HIV)$14.00 ($1.90) 99% (85%-95%) Hydration salts for Diarrhea$0.33 ($1.60) 95% Pneumonia Antibiotics (5 days antibiotics)$0.27High Measles (1 dose of vaccine)$0.26 ($0.50) 98% Malaria$10 ($0.05) 100% Sources: CDS, WHO

42.  Cost of malaria to African countries is 1-5% of GDP, productivity of the worker is reduced by 60%. Direct and indirect costs of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa exceed $2 billion.  75% of TB infections and deaths occur in the 15-54 year age group (the most productive group).  AIDS places seventh among the leading causes of death. The main mode of transmission are homosexual and heterosexual promiscuity and injected-drug-use (IDU) (all high risk behavior). 36.1 million infected.  Majority of maternal deaths are due to poor access to health care (1.9% of female death)

43. Solutions often Proposed  Outlined in the 8 UN Millennium Development Goals.  Population control Aging population trap  “Safe sex” and antiretroviral drugs. Although condoms give the “best” protection against HIV for men, the risk reduction for women is not as high (Davis and Weller,1999) Use of condoms increases the risk of contracting AIDS (UNAIDS 1996 and NACHHD 1999) Not a solution for IUD and Heterosexual transmission Access to family planning increases sexual promiscuity (Kaiser 2000, Paton 2002, USAID 2002)

44. The message is clear, the only way to avoid acquiring HIV through sexual contact is abstinence from sexual involvement or restricting sexual activity to a mutually faithful, monogamous, life-long relationship with a similarly uninfected heterosexual partner. In most cultures and for all recorded history, this relationship is known as marriage

45. Allocation of Funds  World Bank lending for malaria amounted to $300 million and for tuberculosis amounted to $560 million.  The WHO funds totaled $369 million in 2002-2003  For HIV/AIDS, the World Bank allocated $1.5 billion in grants, loans, and credits to fight HIV/AIDS over the past five years.  Cost of Antiretroviral regimen has decreased significantly ($12,000 per year to $500)  Annual population assistance levels reached $2 billion a year.  The misuse of funds does not only affect health but also other fundamental elements of economic growth

46. Expenditure on Grant-Financed Development Activities of the United Nations System by Sector (Percentage of Total)

47. Expenditures on Grant-Financed Development Activities of the United Nations System by Sector Source: Compiled from Comprehensive Statistical Data on Operational Activities for Development, years 1990-2003.

48. CONCLUSIONS  The neo-Malthusian perspective is seriously flawed on many levels and policy actions based on such assumptions will be equally compromised and potentially damaging for real sustainable development.  Most potent among these critiques for the rational observer is the scientific data, which holds neo-Malthusian claims up to the light of reality. Let the data speak for itself.

49.  In addition, these policies coerce less developed countries to make population control the overriding investment. Thus, women are involuntarily reduced to vehicles for carrying out government policy.