1. IFEX 2010 NOAA’s plans for Summer 2010 Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division

2. Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al., BAMS, 2006) IFEX intended to improve prediction of TC intensity change by: 1)collecting observations that span TC life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation 2)developing and refining measurement technologies that provide improved real- time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment 3)improving understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle

3. 2010 HRD Field Program Plans –Continuation of IFEX objectives –~700 hours total for all aircraft –N42RF (P-3) will be available by early June, N43RF available early August, N49RF (G-IV) available early June –Crews available for two-per-day missions starting early July (Tampa and deployments)

4. IFEX goal 3: Improving understanding Genesis SAL/vortex interactions Rapid Intensity Change Ocean observations Landfall coordination Focus areas for 2010 IFEX goal 1: Collecting observations for model initialization/evaluation Doppler radar Synoptic surveillance HWRFx real-time runs HFIP real-time runs SFMR evaluations/possible HIRAD Doppler Wind Lidar Ocean winds/AWRAP Coyote low-level UAS Global Hawk high-level UAS IFEX goal 2: Developing and refining measurement technologies

5. IFEX1: HWRF Doppler Support Missions 2 P-3 Flights per day--on-station time centered on 0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC analysis periods -optimum 3 days of flights in a row starting at tropical depression or maybe pre-depression stage For example, data for 12 UTC analysis, must be collected from 0900-1500 UTC. Thus, P-3 takeoffs will be planned (within personnel and safety constraints) to maximize time within this window TS Dolly (2008) 7/21 23Z7/22 11Z7/22 23Z

6. IFEX1: Real-time Doppler Data ASCII files containing wind fields at 0.5 & 1.0 km, & vertical cross-sections, available to NHC Real-time 3D wind fields on AOML ftp site for possible assimilation/initialization of models Trimmed, quality-controlled Doppler radials for assimilation into parallel HWRF -path off aircraft appears not quite ready yet Doppler radial-velocity superobs transmitted to AOML ftp site for researchers to assimilate

7. IFEX 1: HWRFx-HFIP Demo System HWRFx: based on WRF-NMM code, similar architecture to HWRF HWRF initial conditions currently; EnKF using airborne radar, GPS drops under development Coupling with ocean model under development 9-3 km current capability, near completion of 9-3-1 km capability 100 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 255075 radius (km) 03Z 8/29 27:9 km 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 255075100 radius (km) 03Z 8/29 9:3 km 255075 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 height (km) 100 radius (km) 19:23Z 8/28 Doppler Axisymmetric tangential wind from Hurricane Katrina (2005) after RI Wind swaths for Hurricane Bill and TS Erika (2009) for 9-3 km

8. IFEX 1: FY09 HFIP Real-time Test Diverse NOAA (HRD, ESRL, NCEP/NHC, NCO, EMC), Navy (NRL), NCAR, and university (FSU, PSU, SUNYA, URI, TACC) team testing on-demand capability to support operational hurricane forecasting. Build upon FY08 HFIP HRH & TACC efforts to use high resolution: – Global (FIM and GFS at 10-km, plus 15-km FIM ensembles); and – Regional models, both operational and experimental, to demonstrate on-demand capability and multi-model regional ensembles. HWRF (operational, 4-km, 3-km HWRFx) GFDL WRF-ARW (4-km NCAR, 4-km FSU, 4.5-km PSU using EnKF to assimilate Doppler superobs) COAMPS-TC MM5 (4-km) NCEP model fields & NOAA P-3 Doppler radar superobs transferred automatically from NCO to ESRL and TACC, experimental models run, standard output products generated for forecasters, and products transferred to NHC. Products – ATCF tracks (Marchok and other trackers) – HRH diagnostic suite (track (Marchok tracker), intensity, RI) – Ensemble diagnostics – New diagnostic and evaluation tools

9. IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies HIRAD (Hurricane Imaging Radiometer) Passive C-band Radiometer, similar technology to SFMR Objective: To measure strong ocean surface winds through heavy rain from air or space-based platform – Cross-track as well as along-track imaging (Swath width ~60 o,~3 x altitude) – Winds dynamic range: 10 – 85 m/s, through rain up to ~90 mm/hr – Would complement scatterometers and lidars Institutional Partnerships: – Project leadership, PI, and engineering at NASA/MSFC – Technology, engineering, and science partners: NOAA/HRD, Univ. Central Florida, Univ. Michigan, Univ. Alabama Huntsville Simulation of surface wind speed (m s -1 ) seen from 18-km altitude in mature TC with HIRAD

10. IWRAP/AWRAP Overview C-band and Ku-band Conically-Scanning Profiling Scatterometer  Simultaneous dual-frequency measurements of: Volume reflectivity and Doppler profiles Surface normalized radar cross-section Supports:  Calibration/Validation of current OSVW satellite missions (ASCAT/METOP and Oceansat-2 scatterometer)  Risk reduction for future satellite sensors (Dual-Frequency Scatterometer on GCOM-W2)‏  Ocean and atmospheric boundary layer research (tropical and extratropical cyclones)  Improved utilization of existing OSVW data via improved knowledge of remote-sensing capabilities and limitations in extreme environmental conditions (i.e., tropical and extratropical cyclones) IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies

11. Coyote Low-Altitude UAS IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies Fill existing low altitude data void in hurricanes Safely provide continuous observations of T,P,V, q below 200ft Coyote UAS – P3 Mature Hurricane Eyewall Pattern

12. Example of P3 Doppler Wind Lidar data display in Google Earth Winds are displayed in 50 meter vertical resolution wind flags; Panel between wind profiles contains aerosol loading as function of height Courtesy G. D. Emmitt IFEX2: Developing & refining measurement technologies

13. 5 km 1 km 07:40Z 14Aug18:35Z 14Aug19:25Z 15Aug Doppler-derived wind speed and vectors (m s -1 ) for Pre-Fay (2008) Convective/mesoscale interactions during genesis (e.g., “bottom-up” vs. “top- down”, convective vs. stratiform processes) Synoptic-scale influences on genesis (e.g., SAL, “marsupial” paradigm) Coordinated G-IV/P-3 missions provide multiscale, broad temporal coverage IFEX3: Tropical cyclogenesis Best track position of Fay (courtesy weather.unisys.com)

14. How does moisture and vertical wind shear in the surrounding TC environment impact TC intensity? Hypothesis: Arc cloud formation can disrupt TC intensity by: a) promoting downdrafts locally b) promoting low to mid-level outflow c) bringing cool, dry air down into the boundary layer Arc Clouds Dry air intrusion 46 kt SSE jet 86 kt SE jet Dry air intrusion IFEX3: SAL/Vortex interactions Hurricane Bill (20 Aug 2009) CIMSS TPW (1200 UTC)

15. 0 204060 80 100120 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 IFEX3: Rapid Intensity Change 0 204060 80 100120 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 204060 80 100120 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 204060 80 100120 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 204060 80 100120 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 204060 80 100120 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 06:56Z 07Nov 17:54Z 07Nov 17:21Z 08Nov r-z plots of axisymmetric reflectivity (dBZ, top) and wind speed (m s -1, bottom) for Paloma (2008) r (km) height (km) Convective/mesoscale interactions during RI (e.g., role of convective hot towers, convective vs. stratiform processes) Synoptic-scale influences on RI (e.g., SAL) Coordinated G-IV/P-3 missions provide multiscale, broad temporal coverage P3 Paloma (2008) RI experiment

16. Observe and improve our understanding of the LC response to the near-surface wind structure during TC passages. Specific objectives are: Determine the oceanic response of the LC to TC forcing; and, Influence of the LC response on the TC’s boundary layer and intensity. Deliverables include: V, T, S profiles to 1000 m @ 2-m resolution. Surface winds (SFMR, GPS) provided by HRD. Atmospheric profiles of V, T and RH @ 5-m resolution. IFEX3: Loop Current Response During TC Passage

17. IFEX3: LANDfall and Inland decay Airborne sensors –Airborne Doppler –GPS dropsondes –Flight-level, SFMR winds –AWRAP –SRA Ground sensors (DHC) –FCMP towers –TTU Sticknet –Mobile radars –Coastal Mesonets –88D radars Diagnose and understand processes that control size and structure of surface wind field at landfall and inland Measure structure of intense convection located in an offshore rainband Coordination among airborne and ground-based sensors