1. NEMOMED8 performance in the Adriatic Sea: the first results
Natalija Dunić, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia,
Samuel Somot
CNRS-GAME, Toulouse, France

2. Outline: About Mediterranean climate modelling
About NEMOMED8-ARPERA2 run
Verification on data
DWF and BiOS
Conclusions et al.

3. About Mediterranean climate modelling
Most of them available through MedCordex community,
Several strong institutional groups engaged

4. About NEMOMED8-ARPERA2 run
period:
1/8° horizontal resolution, varies approximately from 12 km in the south to 9 km in the north of the domain
43 inhomogeneous vertical z- levels
deformed around Gibraltar, to resolve strait dynamics, Atlantic buffer
ARPERA2 surface forcing: ARPEGE-Climate downscaling of ERA-40
rivers: RivDis database + Ludwig et al. (2009), Black Sea inflow as a river

5. Verification on data Palagruža Sill transect Seasonal sygnal removed
Model fairly reproduce mean fields
Model overestimate temperature and salinity
Interannual variability strongly underestimated

6. Verification on data Stations D1200, JP
Model underestimates dense water formation in the Adriatic

7. Verification on data Hovmoller plots Central Palagruža Sill
Fair reproduction of the EMT
Longer periodicity of interannual/decadal thermohaline oscillations

8. Verification on data Palagruža Sill - trends
Trends are not reproduced properly

9. DWF and BiOS Dense water transports
Decadal variability in dense water formation
Correlation with wintertime (NDJF) fluxes
EMT-driven advection of low salinity waters in the Adriatic stopped the DWF

10. DWF and BiOS Extreme winter of 2012
ROMS/Aladin
Janeković et al., JGR, 2014
Extreme winter of 2012
Although underestimating, extreme DWF dynamics have been reproduced qualitatively
NEMOMED8

11. DWF and BiOS
model
Decadal patterns obtained by SOM neural networks at the Palagruža Sill
measurements
Mihanović et al., JGR, 2015
Fair reproduction of termohaline patterns, but not in time (except post-EMT period)

12. DWF and BiOS BiOS not reproduced quantitatively
NEMOMED8 BiOS do not follow observed BiOS
Circulation is always cyclonic (although oscillating in strength), the NIG gyre is located more to the southwest

13. Conclusions et al.
Not much people looked to the reproduction quality of 3D climate models in the Adriatic Sea  this study is just a beginning (we hope)
NEMOMED8 river forcing do not include some major rivers, underestimate wintertime cooling and the DWF
NEMOMED8 climate model is qualitatively reproducing Adriatic dynamics, but qualitatively pretty far from reality
BiOS has not been properly modelled
More advanced climate model should be applied – NEMOMED12, with better forcing ALDERA run (Aladin- Climate) and better rivers