1. Supervisors: Dr. Leo Timokhov (AARI) Andrej Rubchenia Dr. Vladimir Pavlov (NPI) Long-period variability of thermohaline structure and circulation of water in Fram Strait and Euro-Arctic Seas

2. Current system in the investigated region

3. Database Years

4. Temporal data distribution By YearsBy Months

5. Expected results Determination of climatic changes of water circulation in the Euro-Arctic seas and in Fram Strait Estimation of the water exchange between the Arctic and North-European basins at various levels from the surface to the bottom Estimation of brine and heat fluxes in Fram Strait Correlation model of Ocean-Atmosphere relation

6. Spatial-temporal section in Fram Strait (winter season, temperature)

7. Spatial-temporal section in Fram Strait (winter season, salinity)

8. Atmospheric Ice Oceanic Direct influence Of atmosphere and ocean activity Long-term connections So-called “Distant connections” Long-term changes of thermohaline structure of waters in the Euro-Arctic seas and Fram Strait

9. Atmosphere events impact Atmosphere events impact Influence of ice cover Influence of ice cover Influence of advection factors Influence of advection factors Long-term variability of thermohaline structure and circulation of water in Fram Strait and Euro-Arctic Seas Influence of variations of Atmosphere marcrocirculation Cyclonic activity in the region Ice cover variability in the region Influence of ice outflow from Arctic Basin

10. Atmosphere events impact Long Scale Long Scale Synoptic Scale Synoptic Scale Cyclone activity in the region Atmosphere circulation indexes – AO, NAO

11. Region 1 Region 2 Atmosphere activity in the region Region 1 Region 2

12. Min 1 Max 1 1 Max 2 2 Region 1 Region 2 Cyclonic activity in the Region 1, winter Temperature variability in Fram Strait, winter Min 1Min 2 Cyclonic activity in the Region 2, winter

13. NAO winter index (1945-1993) Temperature (Winter, Box 15, 1945-2000) Long Scale

14. Arctic Oscillation +1 year, r=0.71 Temperature AO index

15. Long Scale North Atlantic Oscillation NOA index Temperature

16. Influence of ice cover Seasonal time scale Seasonal time scale Long-term time Scale Long-term time Scale Local Changes Local Changes Distant Climatic connections Distant Climatic connections IN SPACE IN TIME

17. Long time scale Ice cover Temperature FRAM r=0.65..0.95; Time shift: 0..5 years

18. Distant Climatic Connections

19. 3 years Polynya SVALBARD

20. Greenland Area of Polynya activity ~ 3 years Time distribution of new ice voluems produced in Kara Sea (Nov-May) Time variability of ice production and temperature in Fram Strait (1000m) New Ice formed in polynya Temperature in Fram Strait

21. Advective factors Salinity in Farore- Scotland Straits Salinity in Fram Strait

22. Conclusions Appearance of extremums of changes of AO Index in February advances by 1 year the corresponding extremums of year time numbers of temperature and salinity of waters in the central part of Fram Strait and WSC waters on horizons from 0 up to 200 meters The best correlation is observed between changes of NOA index and temperatures of WSC on horizon 200 meters during the summer period. The maximal factor of correlation equals 0.72 - at advancing influence of changes of NOA index on 1 year We can see significant correlation between ice production in polynyas and salinity on different horizons in the Greenland Sea. Time shift is about 2..3 years. The best correlation is observed between salinity on 1000m horizon in the area of WSC and polynyas near Novoja Zemlya (r=0.83..0.99) Formation of minima of temperature and salinity of surface waters in the central part of Fram Strait is distinctly connected with an intensification of cyclonic activity in area of Svalbard. An increase in the ice cover in the Greenland Sea in May and July leads to an increase in temperature of surface waters in Fram Strait, with time shift by 3 years, probably by recirculation of cold and fresh water. An increase of salinity of the Atlantic waters in Straits causes salinization of waters WSC, in 3 years it is revealed in an increase in salinity of waters in the central part of Fram Strait.