1. AIDS and the S-I-R Model A study of three groups of people most susceptible to the AIDS virus A Presentation by Tiana Towns and Tanya Milki

2. Objective  Create an SIR model that realistically predicts AIDS movement throughout the given populations

3. The key issues and themes  The main issue in this project was determining the transmission coefficient that would give us realistic, feasible results  Finding statistical data to help us create realistic models

4. The General SIR Model  S’(t)=-aS(t)I(t)  I’(t)=aS(t)I(t)-bI  R’(t)=bI Our tweaked model…  S’(t)=-aS(t)I(t)  I’(t)=aS(t)I(t)-bI  D’(t)=bI

5. General assumptions  Everyone who has the virus eventually dies  We are only working with fixed populations  No natural disasters will compromise our model  No cure will be found

6. Male-to-male homosexual contact

7. Injected drug users

8. Heterosexual contact

9. Conclusions  We are only able to make speculations as to how the AIDS epidemic will spread in the coming years because of the uncertainties in information, such as population sizes, those not taken into account for, those belonging to more than one susceptible population, etc.