1. GRIDLOCK? – TRANSPORT IN 2030 THE FUTURE FOR PRIVATE TRANSPORT Professor Mike McDonald Director, Transportation Research Group Vice-Chair, European Road Transport Research Advisory Council

2. CONTENTS FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES WHAT WILL CARS BE LIKE? WHAT WILL THE ROAD NETWORK BE LIKE? WILL ATTITUDES CHANGE? WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN FOR PRIVATE TRANSPORT?

3. FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES WE ALL MAKE TRANSPORT DECISIONS WHICH BEST SUIT US (Private and Business) FOR MANY PEOPLE, AT MANY TIMES AND IN MANY LOCATIONS CARS PROVIDE THE MOST ATTRACTIVE SOLUTION FOR TRAVEL ROAD IS THE ONLY REALISTIC CHOICE FOR MOST FREIGHT/GOODS MOVEMENTS A RELATIVELY SMALL REDUCTION IN DEMAND RESULTS IN A LARGE REDUCTION IN DELAY

4. WHAT WILL CARS BE LIKE?

8. How Well do Drivers Perform? LONGITUDINAL CONTROL LATERAL CONTROL LOCATION/ROUTE FINDING

10. ABS BAS ESP ABC ASC ACC Lane keeping Advanced driver assistance functions offer:  support in driving dynamics limitations  increased safety, efficiency and comfort The responsibility remains at the driver. The increase in safety and comfort are essential ! Curve- & Speed limit warnings Adaptive gearbox Traffic signs Intelligent illumination vision enhancement

11. Normal Driving Safety Systems soft level 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Active Safety Passive Safety Crash Crash Probability Warning Systems Automatic- Safety Systems Assistance Systems Holistic Safety Approach Safety Systems for minimal crash Safety Systems hard level Safety Systems after Crash Emergency/ Mayday Systems crash severity sensing for ignition levels and belt tension Pedestrian airbag Emergency braking system, Collison avoidance Brake assistant Lane departure warning ACC S&G etc Occupant Protection Basic Vehicle Safety Rescue Collision Avoidance Pre-Crash Phase Examples for ADASE Level of critical safety situations

12. Integrated Driver-Adaptive Systems Ergonomics Approach Nomad systems Aftermarket systems Integrated In-vehicle systems + Driver (age, experience, functional abilities, motivation, etc) Complexity of the Road context Visual/Auditory/Input/output Integrated HMI ?

13. Picture courtesy of California PATH

15. ULTra at Heathrow

16. WHAT WILL THE ROAD NETWORK BE LIKE?

17. THE CHALLENGES TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT Policy Systems Managing information Changing technologies Developing priorities Competences Managing expectation New concepts Finance and ownership Research

18. ROMANSE

19. NANO-TECHNOLOGY Source: ASTRA, Newcastle University MotesASTRA trial concept - RTPI

20. NON INTRUSIVE MEASUREMENT OF VEHICLE EMISSIONS BY THE ROADSIDE REMOTE SENSING DEVICES (RSD’S)

21. BASIC ACCESS CONTROL CONFIGURATIONS Ramp metering with priority access –one lane controlled and one priority lane –both lanes controlled and new bypass priority lane Ramp metering –both lanes controlled Lane closure with priority lane –one open lane and one priority lane Lane closure –one open lane and one closed lane Access open for priority vehicles only Access closed

22. INTEGRATION OPPORTUNITIES Network Measurements/ Monitoring Management Options Selection Traffic Management Policy Objectives Control Option Development Control/ Information Delivery Driver Response Driver Behaviour New Driver Behaviour New Integrated Control/Management Options New Control Techniques New Vehicle Technologies

23. WILL ATTITUDES CHANGE?

27. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? No magic technology bullet. Wide range of private vehicles with new approaches to ownership and usage. Managed network based on more comprehensive understandings. Acceptance of need to change because of energy costs/global warming. People will make fewer trips by car. Goods/freight movements will be rationalised.