1. CHAPTER 7
HUMAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

2. What Is Unique About Kerala?

3. Kerala (Southern state in India) vs. India
Life expectancy 71 years versus 61 for India
Infant mortality 17/1000 versus 72/1000 for India
Fertility rate 1.8 versus 3.3 for India
95% literacy rate
All villages in state have access to school and modern health services
Women as well-educated as men
Both men and women are equally involved in family planning
50 years of a communist party influencing anti-Hinduism believes and rationalist practices

4. What is this chapter about????
Improving the lives of people
Reducing fertility rates
Protecting the environment

5. Children As an Economic Asset

6. Reasons for Large Families in Developing Countries
Old age security
High infant and childhood mortality rates
Children are considered an economic asset
Education for women is minimized, cosidered non-important
Low social status of women
Low availability and/or use of contraceptives

7. Factors Influencing Family Size
Importance of education and children viewed as economic assets or liabilities
Status of women and importance of education
Income and old age security
Cultural views on child-bearing
Contraceptive use and availability

8. The Poverty Cycle

9. Good News Bad News PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT Economic progress
increase in GNP
higher wages
Social progress
> literacy rates
> clean drinking water
> sanitary sewers
< fertility rates (Table 6.1)
1.1 billion live on < $1/day
1 billion lack access to clean water
1 billion live in urban slums
800 million malnourished

11. Adult Female Illiteracy: A Global Comparison

12. Millennium Development Goals
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Achieve universal primary education
Promote gender equality and empower women
Reduce child mortality
Improve maternal health
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
Ensure environmental sustainability
Forge a global partnership for development

14. Japan, South Korea,
China
Europe, North America
India, Pakistan,
Avganistan
Ethiopia,
Nigeria,
Zambia,
South Africa
Thailand,
Vietnam,
Phillipines

15. World Bank Reform Goals
Improving the quality of life
Improving the quality of growth
Improving the quality of the regional and global commons

16. A New Direction: Social Modernization must consider
1. Improving education :educate women on birth control techniques
2. Improving health: provide vaccines, medication, contraceptives, clean water
3. AIDS
4. Family planning
5. Employment and income
6. Resource management

17. 3. Impacts of AIDS Epidemic
AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome)= the greatest Challenge to Health Care in Developing Countries
90% of all HIV-infected people (40 million by 2006) live in developing countries
Life expectancy in Botswana was 61 years in 1980 – now 34 years
One million elementary students lost teachers
2.5 million AIDS orphans in developing world in 2010

19. 4. Family Planning
Counseling on: STDs, contraceptives, spacing children, pregnancy avoidance
Supplying contraceptives
Pre- and postnatal care
Cutbacks in family-planning services lead to more unwanted pregnancies

20. Founder of Grameen Bank
Muhammad Yunus: Economics professor in Bangladesh
Microlending model duplicated by over 100 countries
Recipient of 2006 Nobel Peace Prize

21. 5. Employment and Income: Grameen Bank Loans (Microlending Model)
Grant small loans primarily to women
Does not upset existing social structure
Utilize local resources for employment
Utilize women for central work places
Helps develop self-reliance

22. 6. Resource Management Replant trees Prevent erosion
Resource management educational programs

23. Putting It All Together: Social Modernization
The cycle of Social
Modernization counteracts
The cycle of Poverty.

24. The Cairo Conference
All nations agreed that population is an issue of crisis proportions that must be confronted forthrightly.
Formulated the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development Program of Action (ICPD Program of Action)

25. The 1994 ICPD Program of Action
Enhancing reproductive and basic health of women and children
Improve education opportunities for women
Empowerment of women
Reduce population migrations
International cooperation (0.7% GNP of developed world)

26. ICPD 20 years later….
The 2014 session of the Commission on Population and Development opened on 7 April with calls to redouble efforts to promote development through strengthened reproductive health and human rights. The session – to review progress made since the 1994 adoption of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo – cast a spotlight on the many challenges that remain, including persistent inequalities. “There have been great gains in the past 20 years – in poverty reduction, girls’ education, maternal and child mortality, access to sexual and reproductive health services, including family planning, protection of reproductive rights, and many other areas of the Programme of Action,” said Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin, Executive Director of UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund. “Yet these gains mask significant and growing inequalities, which are preventing the most vulnerable, marginalized and excluded among us – especially women and girls – from realizing their human rights as affirmed by the forward-looking Cairo consensus." - See more at:

27. World Population Over the Centuries
9,000 human beings added to the
planet every hour

28. Reasons for the Human Population Explosion
Causes of disease were recognized and treated
Improvements in nutrition
Discovery of antibiotics
Improvements in medicine
Increase in number of women who actually reach child-bearing age
Short doubling times in some countries

30. Average Number of Children, Grandchildren, and Great Grandchildren in a family
America
West Germany
Africa 14 5
258

31. Different Worlds Rich nations, poor nations
Population growth in rich and poor nations
Different populations, different problems

32. Major Economic Divisions of the World
Gross national income/capita

33. Economic Categories Based on Per Capita Gross National Income
High-income, highly developed, industrialized countries
United States, Japan, Canada
Average GNI per capita = $26,710
Middle-income, moderately developed countries
Latin America, South Africa, China
Average GNI per capita = $1,850
Low-income, developing countries
Western and central Africa, India, central Asia
Average GNI per capita = $430
GNI= GNP/ population size

34. Disparities Developed countries Low-income developing countries
15% of the world’s population
Control 80% of the world’s wealth
Low-income developing countries
37% of the world’s population
Control 3.0% of the world’s gross national income
Difference in per capita income: 63 to 1!

35. Dimensions of the Human Poverty Index

36. Different Populations, Different Problems
Ehrlich and Holdren formula to account for human factors that contribute to environmental deterioration
IPAT Formula: calculates human pressure on the environment
I = P x A x T
I = environmental impact
P = population
A = affluence and consumptive patterns
T = level of technology in the society

37. Different Populations, Different Problems reflected in I=PAT
Environmental impact of developing countries due to “P” population is high
Environmental impact of developed countries due to “A” affluence and “T” technology is high
Average American places at least 20 times the demand on Earth’s resources compared to a person in Bangladesh.
Developed countries: lower P, high T, high A= high I
Developing countries: highest P, low A, low T= high I

38. Different Populations, Different Problems
Affluence “A” effects can be moderated in developed countries by using stewardship
How does stewardship (S) affect the IPAT formula?
S = wildlife conservation, pollution control, energy conservation, and recycling
INCREASE “S”, DECREASE “I”
I = P x A x T S

39. Population Increase in Developed and Developing Countries

40. Population Data for Selected Countries (Table 5-2)
Country
Total Fertility Rate
Doubling Times (Years)
World
2.7 58
Developing Countries
2.9 47
Developed Countries
1.6
700

41. Global Conditions for a Sustainable Population
Lower fertility rates (stabilize population)
Consumption must decrease
Protect the environment (stewardly action must increase

42. Developing Nations High fertility rates
High consumptive lifestyles: use 80% of world’s wealth
Intense poverty
Eat high on the food chain

43. Developed Nations Long doubling times High environmental degradation
Twenty percent of the world’s population

44. Basic Human Needs Drinkable water Edible food Safe housing Health care
An education
A job

45. The Developing Countries dealing with exploding populations
Reform the system of land ownership
Intensify cultivation of existing land to increase production per unit area
Open new land to farm
Move to cities and seek employment
Engage in illicit activities for income
Move to other countries
How do these “solutions” aggravate the problems?

46. Consequences of Exploding Populations
deforestation
resource depletion
loss of agricultural land
disease
pest resistance
population migration
Irrigation
Wetlands
biodiversity
MORE
More Population
Causes
LESS

47. Affluence in the United States
Affluence= the state of having plentiful wealth including the
possession of money, goods, or property
Consume the largest share of 11 or 20 major commodities
Eat more than three times the global average in meat
Lead the world in paper consumption
Environment improves with increasing affluence

48. Affluence in the United States
Enables wealthy to clean up immediate environment by transferring waste to more distant locations (underdeveloped nations)
Affluent isolate themselves and unaware of the global environmental stresses caused by their consumptive lifestyles

49. Demography= the study of human populations and population trends Immigration= the movement of people into a country or region, from another country or region Emigration= the movement of people out of a country or region, from another country or region Net Migration Rate= the difference between the immigration and emigration in a given year per 1000 people in a country Crude Birth Rate (CBR)= the number of births per 1000 individuals per year Crude Death Rate (CDR)= the number of deaths per 1000 individuals per year Doubling Time= the number of years it takes a population to double

50. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)= an estimate of the average number of children that each woman in a population will bear throughout her childbearing years
Replacement Level Fertility= the total fertility rate required to offset the number of deaths in a population in order to maintain the current population size (typical replacement level is 2)
Infant mortality= the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1000 live births
Child mortality= the number of deaths of chilren under 5 years of age per 1000 live births
Life Expectancy= the average number of years that an infant born in a particular year in a particular country can be expected to live

51. Dynamics of Population Growth
To understand the dynamic of population growth, the following must be considered:
1. Population profiles
2. Future populations
3. Population momentum
4. The demographic transition

52. 1. Population Profile United States

53. Population Profile United States

54. Future Population Profile United States

55. Population Profile of Italy

56. Population Profile Italy

57. 2. Population Projections United States
Increased fertility rate
of 2.0 and current
migration
Fertility rate of 1.8

58. Population Profile Developing Country
Age structure diagram= a visual representation of the number of individuals
within specific age groups for a country, typically expressed for males and females
Population Profile Developing Country

59. Population Profile Developing Country

60. 3. Population Momentum= continued population growth after growth reduction measures have been implemented
Effect of current age structures on future population growth
Determined by percent of population in younger versus older age cohorts
It will take countries with a large base of younger population a long time to achieve stability.
Countries like Iraq will continue to grow for years even after the total fertility rate is reduced to replacement level.

63. Global Population Growth Rate= ICBR-CDRI 10
(we divide by 10 to arrive at the % because the rates are expressed per 1000 people)
National Populaton Growth Rate=I(CBR+immigration)-(CDR+emigration)I
If we know the growth rate and assume it is constant, we can calculate the number of years it takes for a population to double.

64. Calculating Population Doubling Times
A Zero Growth Population is achieved only if CBR= CDR
70/ Rate of Increase = Doubling Time
Doubling time= the number of years it will take a population
growing at a constant percentage per year to double

66. 4. The Demographic Transition
developing countries are already moving towards a stable, non-growing global
human population by having smaller families than before
modernization brings about a lower death rate due to better health care,
low infant and childhood mortality, and at the same time it brings about low
birth rates
Demographic transition= the gradual shift in birth and death rates from the
primitive to the modern condition in the industrialized societies
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Crude Death Rate (CDR)= the number of births
and deaths respectively, per thousand of the population per year

67. Phases of The Demographic Transition

68. Phases of Demographic Transition
Phase I: primitive stability (CBR = CDR)
Phase II: declining CDR, CBR remains high accelerating population growth
Phase III: declining fertility rate, but significant population growth continues
Phase IV: modern stability with low CBR and CDR
Phase IV: developed countries
Phases II and III: where most developing countries are currently due to modern
medicine and sanitation being introduced

69. Reassessing the Demographic Transition
Development should be linked to a reduction in poverty
Existing poverty is an affront to humanity and should not be tolerated
Both poverty and development are a threat to the health of the environment
Improving women’s rights and education are foundational in achieving slower population growth

70. Vocabulary/concepts Total fertility rate Replacement level fertility
Factors involved in social modernization
Muhammad Yunus
Microlending Model
The Cairo Conference
ICPD program of action
Reasons for human population explosion
Dimensions of the human poverty index
IPAT formula
Stewardship
Developing nation
Developed nation
Affluence
Demography
Immigration
Emigration
Net migration rate
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Doubling time
Total fertility rate
Replacement level fertility
Infant mortality
Child mortality
Life expectancy
Age structure diagram
Population momentum
Global populatin growth rate
National population growth rate
Zero population
Demographic transition phases