1. Building an interconnected agenda for wheat research in the next decade Martin Kropff Director General CIMMYT

2. The 9 Billion Person Question Agrifood systems Food security Climate change Diseases Urbanization Resources Diets MoreLess Better

3. UK-US-Lloyds insurers food system shock scenario (2015) Need to reduce uncertainty around the impact of an extreme shock to the food supply. Experts in the fields of food security and the economics developed a plausible scenario of a global staple crop production shock, and the cascade of impacts that could result Ug99 (windborn)

4. UK-US-Lloyds food system shock scenario Ug99 (windborn) Lloyds emerging risk report (2015)

5. Wheat production losses FOOD SYSTEM SHOCK SCENARIO

6. Pakistan: 10% India: 11% Low Monsoon Drought Wheat production losses FOOD SYSTEM SHOCK SCENARIO

7. Low Monsoon Australia: 50% coincides Drought Wheat production losses Pakistan: 10% India: 11% FOOD SYSTEM SHOCK SCENARIO

8. Low Monsoon Australia: 50% coincides Drought Flooding Wheat production losses USA: 7% Pakistan: 10% India: 11% FOOD SYSTEM SHOCK SCENARIO

9. Drought Low Monsoon Australia: 50% coincides Flooding Russia: 10% Ug99 Ukraine Turkey : 15% Kazakhstan: 15 % USA: 7% Pakistan: 10% India: 11% FOOD SYSTEM SHOCK SCENARIO

10. Drought Australia: 50% Flooding Ug99 Low Monsoon coincides Russia: 10% Ukraine Turkey : 15% Kazakhstan: 15 % USA: 7% Pakistan: 10% India: 11%+5% FOOD SYSTEM SHOCK SCENARIO

11. January-April Average min. Temperature C  Y=11.55 – 0.65 X R 2 =0.75 Source: H.-J. Braun, I. Ortiz Monasterio CIMMYT

12. Price increases x4x4 x5x5 Stock market losses Food riots Humanitarian crisis Human cost 10% in EU 5% in US Wheat Maize Rice Soybean 7%7% 10% 11% Global production losses 7%7%

13. Growing concern for food system shocks Scenario posed by Lloyds as warning to insurers Insurers only see a return from extreme events that occur as rarely as once per 200 years UK-US taskforce finds that food shocks could soon be occurring every 3 decades How can we help prevent this?

14. Interventions to avoid such a scenario

15. Germplasm Exchange Confusion around Standard Material Transfer Arangement and Nagoya Protocol: good intentions to share benefits but expected restrictions on germplasm exchange We must join forces to maintain international, cross-border germplasm exchange Open Access germplasm is as important as Open Access data

16. Collaboration Borlaug Global Rust Initiative International Wheat Yield Partnership Global Open Access Breeding Informatics Initiative Heat and Drought Wheat Improvement Consortium, Expert Working Groups of Wheat Initiative Collaboration with National Wheat Improvement Initiatives Research partnerships crucial: CIMMYT ICARDA CRP WHEAT - IWIN Phenotyping Platform Public – Private Partnerships!

17. CIMMYT is here as a platform

18. Speeding up Genetic gains Low cost, high- throughput phenotyping Speed breeding integrated with physiology Characterization and use of genetic resources Big Data: Management and analysis still a challenge Breeding fast but seed systems still poor in developing countries

19. Priority areas

20. Impact by Interventions

21. Priority areas Hybrid wheat Sequence genome Photosynthesis efficiency Better modeling Genome editing Improved control of meiotic recombination Epigenetics

22. Modeling 2015: data in search of a system Genomics Transcriptomics Proteomics Metabolomics

23. Wheat - Nutrition – Health Healthy Diets from Climate-Smart Food Systems – and Wheat is part of it Micro-nutrients / Vitamins / Folic Acid Wheat and Obesity e.g. Fibre / resistant starch Quality: Protein Content - High CO2 requires better N management Health Issues Gluten sensitivity Fusarium toxins

24. Cross-disciplinary approaches

25. Economic benefits of international wheat improvement research Additional annual production due to international wheat improvement research estimated from 24 million tons to 65 million tons per year. Total value of additional wheat grain production attributable to international wheat improvement research ranges from US$ 6 billion to US$ 17 billion annually (2010 US$). Total benefits attributable to the CGIAR wheat improvement research range from US$ 2.1 billion to US$ 5.7 billion annually (2010 US$)

26. Thank You and see you at 1 st International Wheat Congress in 2019 in Saskatoon

27. Thank you for your interest! www.CIMMYT.org