1. F7 and FORCLIMIT PROJECTS: The Tropical Forestry and Global Climate Change Research Network Climate Change Mitigation: Role of Forests and Forestry Projects Jayant Sathaye Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) University of California, Berkeley, CA July 2003

2. What is the role of sinks in the global carbon cycle?

3. Atmosphere Fossil Deposits 6.3 62.3 92.3 60 90 3.3 Plants Soil Oceans 750 500 2000 39,000 About 16,000 1.6 The Global Carbon Cycle Units Gt C and Gt C y -1 …are leading to a build up of CO2 in the atmosphere. Fossil emissions... …and land clearing... But, the oceans and land vegetation are taking up 4.6 Gt C between them. At equilibrium this would be zero. The KP seeks to reduce net emissions by about 0.3 Gt C below 1990 levels

4. Carbon emissions and uptakes since 1800 (Gt C)

5. Above ground carbon Below ground carbon

6. What is the forestry mitigation potential in developing countries?

7. Mitigation Analysis l Goal: – Estimate the carbon mitigation potential and costs of forestry options l Scale: – National or regional level analysis – Project-specific analysis » Confined to a specific geographic location, time period and institutional framework so as to allow changes in GHG emissions attributable to the project to be monitored and verified

8. F7 Project Description l National and regional level mitigation analysis l Studies conducted by country-specific modeling teams – LBNL provides technical support, training and outreach l All analyses use the same model – COMAP accounting approach l Data: National statistics on land use patterns, carbon benefits and costs of mitigation options, timber and non-timber prices, etc.

9. F7 and FORCLIMIT Participating Research Groups (F7 since 1990) l ASIA:  CHINA -- Xu, Deying (IPCC Lead Author, LULUCF Report), Forest Ecology and Environment Institute, Beijing  INDIA -- Dr. N.H. Ravindranath (IPCC Coordinator, LULUCF Report, CLA for Tech Transfer, and LA for WGIII Report, Consultant to UNFCCC), Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore  INDONESIA -- Prof. Rizaldi Boer (UNFCCC Consultant), Bogor Agriculture University, Bogor (co-funding with EAP)  MALAYSIA -- Dr. Roslan Ismail (ITTO Board, IPCC LA), SustechAsia.com Sdn Bhd., and Prof. Azman Abidin, UPM, Malaysia (via EAP funding)  PHILIPPINES -- Prof. Rodel Lasco (IPCC Lead Author, LULUCF Report), University of the Philippines, Los Banos (via EAP funding) l AFRICA :  TANZANIA -- (Yonika Ngaga, CEEST, Dar es Salam, and Dr.Willy Makundi, LBNL, LULUCF and WGIII Lead Author) l LATIN AMERICA :  MEXICO -- Prof. Omar Masera, IPCC CLA LULUCF and LA Tech Transfer and WG III reports, National University of Mexico  BRAZIL -- Dr. Philip Fearnside, IPCC, CLA LULUCF and LA WGII, National Institute for Research in the Amazon (INPA), Manaus

10. Mitigation Analysis Using a bottom-up approach l Select area (country or region) and option to analyze l Develop basecase and mitigation land-use scenarios by option l Estimate carbon stock changes by option in each carbon pool –Live and dead biomass, soil, and products l Estimate costs and benefits of each option –Costs: Investment, recurring, opportunity, and monitoring –Revenues: Timber, fuel wood, honey, etc. sources l Compare cost and carbon estimates –Use an equilibrium carbon approach, and/or track annual changes in carbon and costs/benefits l Estimate macroeconomic impacts

11. 1. Identify and Screen Potential Mitigation Options 2. Assess Current and Future Forest and Agriculture Land Use Patterns 9. Discuss Barriers to and Policies Needed for Implementation 5. Estimate Net Carbon Sequestration Per Ha by Mitigation Options (Vegetation, Soils, Understory, Litter & Wood Product) 7. Develop Scenarios of Total Cost and Carbon Seques- tration by Mitigation Option 8. Evaluate Cost- Effectiveness Indicators for Ranking Mitigation Options 4. Determine Land Area and Wood Production Scenarios by Option 6. Estimate Unit Costs and Benefits by Mitigation Option 10. Assess Macro- Economic Effects of Scenarios (Jobs, Capital, Exports, GDP, etc.)-India 3. Assess Current and Future Wood Product Demand Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP)

12. Negative cost potential about half the total COMAP: Forestry Mitigation Potential (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines and Tanzania) 35 36 10 9 7 8 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 6 5 4 3 2 1 ($1,000) ($800) ($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200 $400 $600 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Cumulative Carbon Mitigation Potential (Mt C), 2000-2030 - Hypothetical Carbon Price Source: 1. Sathaye J. Makundi W., Andrasko K. Boer R., Ravindranath N.H., Sudha P., Rao S., Lasco R., Pulhin F., Masera O., Ceron A., Ordonez J., Deying X., Zhang X., and Zuomin S. 2001. Carbon mitigation potential and costs of forestry options in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, and Tanzania. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 6. Nos. 3-4, pp. 185-211.

13. GCOMAP Results: Forestation – Long Rotation: $10 / t C + 5 % / year carbon price scenario 1990-2000 FAO Base Case Planting Rates (thousand ha/yr): C America – 60 S America -- 80 Africa – 115 India – 350 China – 615 Rest of Asia – 1100

14. GCOMAP Results: Avoided Deforestation: $10 / t C constant carbon price scenario

15. GCOMAP Results: Avoided Deforestation: $100 / t C constant carbon price scenario Carbon price that halts deforestation: Africa $ 38 / t C C America $ 85 / t C Rest of Asia $105 / t C S America $ 85 / t C Note: Prices are sensitive to the proportion of deforestation that yields timber revenue

16. 1. Selection and Characterization of Options l Mitigation Options – Regeneration – Natural and Enhanced – Short and Long-rotation Plantations – Agroforestry – Forest Protection – Forest management – Bioenergy – Avoided deforestation l Characteristics – Mean annual increment, soil carbon, vegetation carbon, rotation period – Establishment and silvicultural costs, timber and non-timber benefits

17. 2. Land-use Scenarios l Brazil -- Scenarios based on potential identified in literature l China -- Two scenarios based on government plans »Forestation of 80% and 60% of suitable land area in 30 years in three regions -- South West, South East, and North East. l India -- Sustainable and commercial forestry scenarios analyzed l Indonesia -- Government plans scenario, and a mitigation scenario were analyzed. The latter meets all wood demand by 2010. l Philippines -- Forestation rates of 100% and 50% of government plans in two scenarios. l Mexico -- Baseline (likely trends) and mitigation scenario analyzed  Mitigation consists of reduced deforestation rates, better forest management, and plantations meet commercial wood demand l Tanzania - The Tropical Forest Action Plan (TFAP) scenario, assuming that 3.5 Mha and 1.7 Mha land area is converted are analyzed.

18. 3. Carbon Accounting Four carbon pools are accounted for –Above- and below-ground biomass, detritus, soils and products –Carbon accounting is on an equilibrium value basis Annual balance is reported for vegetation carbon All accounting is with respect to a reference case or baseline carbon

19. 3.1 Carbon Accounting Time Carbon Stock T 0.5 T Natural regeneration Plantation operated in rotation Forest Protection: Baseline Scenario Forest Protection: Mitigation Scenario

20. 4. Benefit / Cost Accounting Costs include –Establishment or first costs –Recurring costs -- maintenance and monitoring –Opportunity cost of land Benefits include –Revenue from sale of timber and non- timber products -- fruits, honey, etc. Accounting is with respect to a reference case or baseline cost and benefits

21. 4.1 -- Regeneration Project: Accounting of Carbon and Costs Time Carbon Stock G Time Annual Cost R R T T I V U O O

22. 4.2 -- Forest Conservation Project: Accounting of Carbon and Costs Time Carbon Stock Baseline Scenario Mitigation Scenario Baseline Scenario Annual Cost T A B C D O M O E F T Tp Y X L Z V

23. 4.3 -- Plantation Project Harvested in Rotation: Accounting of Carbon and Costs Time Carbon Stock G 0.5 G Time Annual Cost R R T K T M N A B O O

25. 6. Conceptual Figure: Impact of barriers on costs and carbon mitigation potential Carbon sequestered or emissions avoided (t C) Cost of carbon ($/t C) F7 Estimate – Socioeconomic Potential Market or Achievable Potential Economic Potential Barriers: Examples Carbon leakage Class structure Gender Issues Attitudes and habits Market Failures: Examples Ill-defined property rights Lack of information Absence of markets Poor capital markets ?? Technical Potential

27. Carbon Benefits: Mitigation Options in F7 Studies 2000-20122000-2030 Cumulative (Mt C) Annual average (Mt C/yr) Cumulative (Mt C) Annual average (Mt C/yr) F7 Study1,8511406199200 All- Tropics 2,7302109,028290

28. Potential Supply

29. Ongoing Work at Berkeley Lab l Estimating mitigation potential of projects taking barriers into consideration –Land tenure, rural cultures, risk-averse behavior, lack of product markets, etc. l Project-specific analysis of forestry mitigation options –Establishing approaches to resolve issues of baselines, permanence, and leakage l FORCLIMIT Project –Evaluation of case studies to better understand key LULUCF issues about leakage and baselines l GCOMAP Model development

30. Key Concerns about Climate Change Projects l Tests for additionality and credibility of baselines l Estimating and controlling GHG leakage l Monitoring and verification of GHG emissions and carbon stock l Permanence: Duration of carbon stocks of a LULUCF project l Sustainability concerns about LULUCF projects The above issues, except permanence, are of concern to all climate change projects, although their impact varies by type of project

31. Leakage l Reduced access to land, food, fuel and timber resources without offering alternatives may result in carbon leakage as people find needed supplies elsewhere l A few pilot projects have been designed to reduce leakage – Multi-component projects: (CARE/Guatemala) increases fuelwood availability and agricultural productivity by encouraging agroforestry l Significant leakage may require assessments outside the project boundary – Difficult if the assessment is across national boundaries

32. 1.1 Forestry Mitigation Options In Study Countries: Key Assumptions OptionInitial Cost ($/ha) Rotation Period (yrs) Mean Annual Increment (t C/ha/yr) 1. Short-rotation 2. Long-rotation 3. Regeneration/ Management 4.Protection/ Conservation 150 – 450 450 – 700 18 – 40 5 – 10* 7 –8 25 – 40 40 – 80 3.8 – 19.2 1.6 – 11.1 0.8 – 3 * Excludes opportunity costs of land, which vary substantially across countries. These are accounted for in the estimates for each study country.

33. 2. Historical land-use characteristics CountryTotal land area (‘000 ha) Forested Area (‘000 ha) Defrstion Rate Study Area (‘000 ha/yr) Potential This Study (000’s ha) Potential Trexler/Haugen (000’s ha) Brazil845,700390,0001113 – 290685,000 China (3 regions) 963,296115,6006031,953 India328,76063,30027453,20035,000 Indo- nesia 192,401104,500750-1,50031,00013,600 Mexico196,700115,65272021,00035,500 Phili- ppines 30,0005,200994,4008,000 Tanzania89,16141,8577507,50011,100 Total2,556,857837,593Not Applicable234,053188,200

34. 1. Identify and Screen Potential Mitigation Options 2. Assess Current and Future Forest and Agriculture Land Use Patterns 10. Discuss Barriers to and Policies Needed for Implementation 5. Estimate Net Carbon Sequestration Per Ha by Mitigation Options (Vegetation, Soils, Understory, Litter & Wood Product) 7. Develop Scenarios of Total Cost and Carbon Seques- tration by Mitigation Option 8. Evaluate Cost- Effectiveness Indicators for Ranking Mitigation Options 4. Determine Land Area and Wood Production Scenarios by Option 6. Estimate Unit Costs and Benefits by Mitigation Option 9. Assess Macro- Economic Effects of Scenarios (Jobs, Capital, Exports, GDP, etc.) 3. Assess Current and Future Wood Product Demand Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP)

35. 2.1 Land-use categories

36. 3.2 Vegetation Carbon Stock in Study Countries 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2000'12'302000'12'302000'12'302000'12'302000'12'302000'12'30 MexicoIndonesiaChinaIndiaPhilippinesTanzania Mt C Mitigation Scenario Baseline Scenario 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2000'12'30 Philippines Mitigation Baseline

37. 4.4 Evaluation of Project Costs Time Total Costs B: Discounted present value of cost series A C: Annualized cost of a LULUCF project Converging series A: Cost of a LULUCF project

38. 4.5 Discounting Carbon Revenue

39. 5. Forestry Mitigation Potential, Indonesia Forest Protection Bioenergy Reforestation - Short - Rotation Reduced Impact Logging Reforestation - Long - Rotation Enhanced Natural Regeneration Long-Rotation Plantation Short- Rotation Plantation -150 -100 -50 0 100 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Cumulative Carbon Mitigation Potential (Mt C), 2000-2030 Cost ($/t C) DR = 10%

40. Negative cost potential about half the total COMAP- Forestry Mitigation Potential (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines and Tanzania) 35 36 10 9 7 8 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 6 5 4 3 2 1 ($1,000) ($800) ($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200 $400 $600 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Cumulative Carbon Mitigation Potential (Mt C), 2000-2030

41. Negative cost potential about half the total 5.3 Forestry Mitigation Potential (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines and Tanzania) 35 36 10 9 7 8 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 6 5 4 3 2 1 ($1,000) ($800) ($600) ($400) ($200) $0 $200 $400 $600 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Cumulative Carbon Mitigation Potential (Mt C), 2000-2030 Hypothetical Carbon Price