1. Setting Development Goals for Population Dynamics & Reproductive Rights January 9, 2013 John F. May Visiting Fellow Center for Global Development Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

2. 2 1. Population Dynamics New Challenges

3. 3 Great Divergence in Fertility Levels 16% of the world population: TFR >4.0 children per woman (mainly LLDCs) 38%: TFR between 2.1 and 4.0 children (diverse group) 46%: TFR<2.1 children per woman (North America, Europe, and China & some Asian countries)

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5. 5 Age Structure’s Transformation

6. 6 Youth Bulge (and Security Demography) When the proportion of 15-29 age group represents more than 40% of all adults (15+) Pakistan (2010) = 46.4% For example: Pakistan (2010) = 46.4%

7. 7 Urbanization Since 2009, >50% of the world population is urban And 2/3 of people will live in cities in 2050 Issue of slums (1 billion people)

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9. 9 International Migration About 3% of world population This proportion will increase … … and so will tensions around international migration issues

10. 10 Population Aging Elderly support ratio For example: Germany 2010 = 3 persons aged 15-64 for 1 person 65+ 2050 = 2 persons aged 15-64 for 1 person 65+ Depopulation of some countries (Russia)

11. 11 2. Reproductive Rights A Renewed Emphasis

12. 12 Family Planning Past Abuses  India: Emergency 1975-77  China: One-child policy 1979  Abuses in Latin America (e.g., Peru)  Top-down approaches  Target setting

13. 13 Focus on Reproductive Rights 1. The reaction against FP past abuses and 2. The realization that family planning is necessary but not sufficient Resulted in reproductive rights agenda adopted at ICPD Cairo (1994)

14. 14 Reproductive Health Child Health Domestic Violence Maternal Health Family Planning HIV/AIDS & STDs

15. 15 Millennium Development Goals  Family planning was left out in 2000, and included only in 2005 (Target 5b)  Need to address Pop/RH issues in the next development framework

16. 16 3. Setting Development Goals The Way Forward

17. 17 Inequity & Poverty  The DHS quintile analysis has enriched our understanding of inequity  Rapid population growth is linked to poverty at household level

18. 18 Demographic Dividend Situation in which working age groups expand relative to dependents, with more favorable dependency ratios Opportunity for faster economic growth (East Asian experience), but sound economic & social policies are needed Window of opportunity limited in time

19. 19 A Multisectoral Approach  Link family planning efforts with female education & income generating activities  Empowerment of women  Human capital formation (i.e., education & health)

20. 20 Priority Groups  Women (and their partners)  Women (and their partners): they represent half of the population – absolutely key for any future progress  Youth  Youth: in many LLDCs, 30% of the population is between 15 and 29

21. 21 Political Commitment  IT IS CRUCIAL (e.g., Tunisia, Rwanda)  Need for more advocacy  Concept of “Public Demography”  Convey key demographic concepts in a simple way

22. 22 Thank you!