1. The Value of Measurements and Where they Apply Data Requirements for Evaluation of Population Policy Liezl Coetzee Southern Hemisphere Consultants liezl@southernhemisphere.co.za

2. Context South African Population Policy Adopted by Parliament in April 1998 Follows on International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) - Cairo 1994 Shift to Developmental Focus Coincides with new political dispensation Evaluating policy impact Data Requirements & Challenges

3. Overview Population Policy and Development Goal & Objectives Implementation – multi stakeholder process Shift in emphasis: Demographics to Development Population & Development – impacts, linkages & strategies Data requirements Link demographic & development variables Review of assessments Challenges to measuring ‘Impact’

4. Policy goal & Objectives Goal: “Bring about changes in the determinants of the country’s population trends, so that these trends are consistent with the achievement of sustainable human development.” Objectives: 1. Ensure systematic integration of population factors into all policies, plans, programs and strategies aimed at enhancing quality of life at all levels and in all sectors; 2. Ensure a coordinated, multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary & integrated approach in design and implementation of programs & interventions that impact on major national population concerns. 3. Ensure availability of reliable, up- to-date information on population and human development situation to inform policy making & program design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation at all levels and in all sectors;

5. Population Policy Implementation Implemented by National & Provincial Population Units (Dept. Social Development) Multi-sectoral & multi disciplinary Collaboration of all departments + civil society partners Integrate population issues in policies, programmes & projects Address population concerns in sustainable development context Challenges to co-ordinating implementing partners.

6. Shift in emphasis Former focus fertility, mortality, family planning – quantitative demographic targets to measure success New focus impacts of demographics on development – qualitative indicators to measure living standards Implications for monitoring & evaluating impact… How to measure “development”?

7. Population Policy Strategies Population and human development: 1. poverty reduction 2. environmental sustainability 3. health, mortality and fertility 4. gender, women, youth and children 5. education 6. employment 7. migration and urbanization. Policy implementation capacity: 8. co-ordination and capacity building for integrating population and development planning 9. advocacy and population information, education and communication (IEC) 10. data collection and research.

8. Population Policy & Data Capacity for implementation weak i.t.o. Availability of data & information Institutional & technical capacity. To build capacity, the policy set an objective To “Ensure availability of reliable, up-to-date information on the population and human development situation to inform policy making & program design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation at all levels and in all sectors.” Emphasis on availability of information to inform policy making.

9. Population Policy Impact Assessment M&E Requirements Investigation of the mutual impact of development variables on population variables, and vice versa Monitoring and evaluation of dynamics between variables Interventions to influence these interrelationships Policy Impact assessments to date 2000, 2004 - Key findings related to data 2008 Key findings related to implementation & data Impacts over 10 years?

10. 2000 – Evaluation of Policy Strategies 1. Co-ordination and capacity building for integrating population and development planning 2. Advocacy And Population Information, Education And Communication 3. Poverty Reduction 4. Environmental Sustainability 5. Health, Mortality And Fertility 6. Gender, Women, Youth And Children 7. Education 8. Employment 9. Migration And Urbanization 10. Data Collection And Research

11. 2000 – Key Findings: Data Collection And Research Programs do not support the essence of the population policy strategy on data collection and research: Lack of commitment, technical capacity and mechanisms to promote an integrated approach for data and information management Little if any sharing and mutual utilization of data and information. Systems developed in different departments inaccessible for other users outside the department. Little evidence of ways to ensure that primary data and information are further analyzed and interpreted for use by secondary users “Silo planning” Need analyzed and interpreted population information in user-friendly and accessible formats.

12. 2004 Evaluation Population size, structure and distribution Fertility rates and trends Morbidity and mortality trends Migration & Urbanization Trends Achievements and challenges Gender, Women, Children and Youth; Health; Employment; Poverty; Education; Environmental sustainability and natural resources Coordination & Capacity building Data collection and research Population and development information Population and development research, trends analysis, monitoring and evaluation Population units Advocacy and Information, Education And Communication

13. 2004 – Key Findings: Data Data gathering Population and Development Information Service (Dept Social Development, 1999) National Statistics System Information Sharing Southern Africa Research on Poverty Network (SARPN) Housing and Urbanisation Information System (HUIS) Municipal Demarcation Board databases Education Management Information System, National Centre for Curriculum Research and Development Research initiatives around population and development issues: Government Departments Academic institutions “Progress has been made with the implementation of the policy, in all sectors.”

14. 2008 Assessment Examine extent to which “population & development situation” changed since early 1990s, in context of new political dispensation. Themes: 1. Introduction: Overview of population trends and dynamics in the country 2. HIV/Aids 3. Sexual and reproductive health and rights 4. Youth 5. Children and families 6. Migration and urbanization 7. Gender equality, equity & empowerment of women 8. Population, environment and development 9. Poverty & inequality, 10. Population & development research, technical capacity development and institutional arrangements for policy implementation

15. Key findings – Implementation Indicators : Output performance indicators & targets for implementation, not suitable for measuring ‘impact’ Institutional system Numerous initiatives : Research, Advocacy, Capacity Building Significant activity & output, relevant projects Appropriate synergies Points to effective institutional system for policy implementation. But doesn’t measure… Impact…

16. 2008 – Key Findings – Data Data quality & collection procedures serious problems Questionable validity Comparability of datasets difficult No numerical targets in 1998 Population Policy, difficult to evaluate progress made in implementation; problem of attribution. What do we know and what don’t we? What we know… Proportions And what we don’t… Actual numbers E.g’s: Population size, growth estimates, migration

17. Human Development Index (HDI) Lifespan, Education, Income SA’s performance: Up 1975 – 1995 Down 1995 – 2005 (policy period…) HDI unpacked Life expectancy down (HIV…) Education up (and then?) Income up (but is it sustainable?) 2008 – Key Findings – Impact

18. Life expectancy Overall decrease in life expectancy: 1997: 54.7 – 2007: 50 Lack of consensus about Life Expectancy calculation– limitations of data reliability before 2000 Since 2000 – “increasing mortality, especially of the young” Impact of HIV/AIDS Stabilising but at high levels of infection Don’t know actual # HIV+ people Women worst affected ANC prevalence up (but why?)

19. Education Overall increase in Adult Literacy (1995: 69.6% - 2006: 74.4%) Different datasets and criteria for ‘Adult literacy’ complicate assessment – South African (>20years) and ‘HDI’ (>15 years) figures differ Gross enrolment rate (GER) (# learners per education level/ # persons corresponding to official age for level. ) Primary Boys and girls higher than expected (GER>100); Girls > boys Secondary Boys and girls lower than expected (GER<100); Girls < boys Tertiary Overall upward trend: 2000: 1.3% - 2006: 1.6% ~3.6%pa growth (population growth 1.2%) Better education, but youth dying young because of HIV/ emigrating, so what is real impact?

20. Income Equality? Productivity? (In)equality: Mean: 1995: R1 101.48 – 2005: R 1514.81. = 37% Median: 1995: R428.74 – 2005: R483.87. = 12.9% Mean consistently higher, and increased more than median from 1995- 2000 - distribution skewed to right: Few (and fewer) rich and more poor. Income up, but is productivity? Social grants recipients up: 1996/7: 2.4m – 2007/8: 12.3m =~25.5% of total population Employment growth: 2001: 24.9%– 2007: 27.4% (=2.4%pa) (Unemployment down: ‘Official: 29.4% - 23%; ‘Unofficial’: 40% - 34.3%) Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP): Temporary job opportunities up: 2004/5: 174 854 – 2007/8: 291 953 (~1mil in total) Implications for sustainability?

21. Challenges to measuring Policy Impact’ Heavy reliance on existing information, not always in compatible formats Monitoring change - Accurate & consistent data collection & analysis NB Attributing change to policy Defining ‘success’ – what if…? Policy Evaluations Output/ Performance indicators can be used to evaluate implementation But ‘Impact’… ???