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Grain Marketing AG BM 102. Hard Red Wheat Price Bio-Fuel Ethanol Bio-diesel Both ethanol & bio-diesel rules controversial in Farm Bill debate Corn prices.

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Presentation on theme: "Grain Marketing AG BM 102. Hard Red Wheat Price Bio-Fuel Ethanol Bio-diesel Both ethanol & bio-diesel rules controversial in Farm Bill debate Corn prices."— Presentation transcript:

1 Grain Marketing AG BM 102

2 Hard Red Wheat Price

3 Bio-Fuel Ethanol Bio-diesel Both ethanol & bio-diesel rules controversial in Farm Bill debate Corn prices much lower recently

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5 Corn Supply Bil. Bu. YearBeg stocksProductionSupply 2009/101.6713.1014.77 2010/111.7112.4514.18 2011/121.1312.3613.51 2012/130.9910.7811.93 2013/140.8213.9214.78 2014/151.2414.4815.74 Source: USDA

6 Corn Usage bil. bu Source: USDA YearFeedFoodFuelExportsTotal 2009/105.131.354.591.9813.07 2010/114.791.415.021.8413.05 2011/124.551.435.011.5412.53 2012/134.331.374.640.7311.11 2013/145.181.405.121.9213.60 2014/155.381.415.121.7513.66

7 Corn Usage Crop2004201020132014 Feed57.8%36.7%38.2%39.1% Food12.8%10.8%10.3% Exports17.1%14.0%14.2%12.9% Ethanol12.4%38.5%37.3%37.7%

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9 Other mostly Russia and Ukraine

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11 Corn futures prices 11/28/14 MonthPrice (cts/bu.) May 15397 Sept 15409 Dec 15417 Dec 16423

12 Dec 2014 Corn Contract

13 Source: CME Weekly Ethanol Outlook Report

14 Ethanol 213 plants operating 5 under construction or expanding Current 14.4 bil. gal/yr – 5.1 bil. bu. Many were closed until corn price fell Source: Renewable Fuels Association

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16 PA Corn Crops YearMil. Bu.Yield 2005117.1122 2006117.1122 2007121.5124 2008117.0133 2009131.6143 2010116.5128 2011106.6111 2012132.0132 2013164.3155 2014152

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33 160 acres of wheat 11 minutes 8 seconds Winkler, Sask. 100 combines

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41 Old Mill

42 Mill

43 Wheat by Truck

44 Wheat by Railcar

45 Probing Truck

46 Testing Equipment

47 Dryer

48 Wheat Silos

49 Top of Silos

50 Rollstands

51 Roll Change

52 Sifter

53 Mill Spouting

54 Bulk Trailers Loading

55 Flour Trailer on Scale

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57 Price Discovery Futures Market Local Supply and Demand Grades & Standards

58 Market Power Cargill & Continental Archer Daniels Midland Conagra Local Monopsony

59 International Trade Multinationals Wheat Boards

60 Summary Big Integrated System Price driven Market power important Space, time, and product form very important here The law of one price System works!


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