1. A Study on Economic Development in the New Silk Road
Kazakhstan
Mukhamediyev BULAT
Kazakh National University

3. Territory of the republic (thsd. sq. km) 2724,9
Population ( , thsd., person)
Density
Capital was moved from Almaty to Astana in 1997

5. Economic Development of Kazakhstan in 2000-2010
Rate of GDP growth % last 10 years
The extraction of natural resources
Favorable investment climate
Developed financial sector
The Economy is closely integrated into global processes
Reflects the cycles of the global economy, all its ups and downs
Due to the structure of exports it is able to extract excess profits in times of crisis

6. Rate of GDP growth

7. GDP growth

8. Inflation The banking bubble (excessive borrowing)
6-8 % in period 2000–2006
Up to 19 % in
The banking bubble (excessive borrowing)
The real estate bubble (housing prices rise in ten times)
They burst with the onset of the global financial crisis
The sharp decline in lending to the economy
The slowdown in economic activity
Decline in real incomes

9. Government measures
Increases in pensions and salaries for public sector employees
Support the banking system
Strengthening the raw material orientation of the economy
In 2010 exports of mineral products %
including oil and associated gas 50% of exports

10. The Resource Curse Increased production of oil and gas condensate
Reserves will last for years
Dutch disease
The development of economic and political institutions, the OF
Diversification of the economy
Financial sector development, access to investment resources
The increase in total factor productivity

11. REER

12. Estimated crude oil production in Kazakhstan, mln barrels per day

13. Oil Tengiz and Kashagan - an annual increase of 5 million tons
In the next 10 years the RK may enter to the five largest suppliers of mineral resources
Problems in oil refining sector

14. The structure of oil and gas condensate in the ROK in 2000-2011, mln. T

15. The structure of oil and gas condensate in the ROK in 2000-2011, mln. T

16. Economic Development
High prices are favorable for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan.
However, the productivity decreases for a large part of non-oil economy.
Liquidity in the banking system is restored, but new loans made ​​in small quantities.

17. The most important factor of the growth is the price of oil
The most important factor of the growth is the price of oil. In 2010, they rose by 41%.
Fixed capital investment has shifted from foreign sources to domestic sources.
The state budget deficit - about 2%.

18. The price of Brent crude oil, U.S. $ per barrel

19. Industry

20. Foreign Direct Investment in fixed assets for the years 1993 -2010, USD million

21. GDP growth
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Real GDP growth, %
9,8
13,5
9,3
9,6
9,7
10,7
8,9
3,2
1,2
7,0
Nominal GDP, $ billion
18,3
22,2
24,6
30,8
43,2
57,1 81
105
132
113
146

22. Oil Extraction and its Price

23. Inflation

24. Export and Import, 2010 Export, % Import, % CIS 13.4 45.8 Russia 8.137
Europe
54.1
25.3
Italy
16.2
5.3
France
7.5
1.7
Asia
25.7
21.7
China
17.1
13.3
Turkey
2.1
Japan
0.9
1.9
Korea
0.4
1.8

25. Risks
The main risk to Kazakhstan is the price of oil. According to the WB the oil price rise by 1% leads to an increase in GDP by 0.08%.
Oil in 2009 was about 70 percent of exports, 26 percent of GDP.
Diversification of export destinations: - KPC and Atyrau-Samara - Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline - Atasu-Alashankou
External risks to the financial sector
The instability of the flow of portfolio investment (12% of GDP in 2010)
External debt equels about 80% of GDP.

26. Customs union Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus - 01.01.2010.
Creating a single economic space2012 году.
Для Казахстана средний тариф увеличился с 6.7 до 11.5.
В 2010 году общий объем импорта остался почти неизменным.
Однако, импорт за пределами ТС сократился на 20%, а из Китая – на 48%.
В 2011 импорт из Китая медленно восстанавливается, а из Европы и Северной Америки снижается.

28. Западная Европа -Западный Китай – 8 445 км
45 days
10 days
14 days
West Europe - China – km
Transsib– km
The sea route through the Suez Canal – km
до 45 суток
10 суток
14 суток
Западная Европа -Западный Китай – км
Транссиб – км
Морской путь через Суэцкий канал – км

30. Impact of the new Silk Road
The Economy of Kazakhstan
Other countries