1. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Climate resilience & a Green Economy Errol Douwes Manager: Restoration Ecology Branch Environmental Planning and Climate Protection Department Durban (EThekwini Municipality), South Africa

2. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Understanding risk Global drivers of change – Climate change – Biodiversity loss – Habitat fragmentation – Nitrogen deposition Acknowledging complexities

3. Increased flood risk

4. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Invasive Alien Plants Tool to evaluate long-term city plans and policies against the impacts of climate change. Represents climate change impacts spatially. Considers: temperature, rainfall, food security, health impacts, biodiversity, GHG emissions and sea-level rise. Provides access to resources – catalogue for climate protection documents. Fire associated risks: Too much or too little.

5. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461:472-475 Nine planetary boundaries

6. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Predicting Durban’s Climatic Future: GCM models: downscaling increases uncertainty for local predictions e.g. total water supply could increase or decrease, but high probability of flooding and evaporation rate increase Flexible planning using “no regret” options e.g. Ecosystem restoration ensures buffer protection and continued supplies of services like flood attenuation

7. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Climate related events - are we missing anything? Extreme events Slow onset events No real Disaster Management Few opportunities for Risk Transfer More insidious? Disaster Management Risk Transfer vs Extreme storms Severe floods Temperature extremes Drought Rapid infrastructure damage Health issues Ocean acidification Rising sea levels Desertification Agricultural potential Forest degradation Soil erosion Migrations Water availability

8. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Ten Principles of the Durban Adaptation Charter 1.Mainstream adaptation as a key informant of all local government development planning. 2.Understand climate risks though conducting impact and vulnerability assessments. 3.Prepare and implement integrated, inclusive, and long-term local adaptation strategies designed to reduce vulnerability. 4.Ensure that adaptation strategies are aligned with mitigation strategies. 5.Promote the use of adaptation that recognises the needs of vulnerable communities and ensures sustainable local economic development. 6.Prioritise the role of functioning ecosystems as core municipal green infrastructure. 7.Seek the creation of direct access to funding opportunities. 8.Develop an acceptable, robust, transparent, measurable, reportable, and verifiable register. 9.Promote multi-level and integrated governance and advocate for partnerships with sub- national and national governments on local climate action. 10.Promote partnerships at all levels and city-to-city cooperation and knowledge exchange.

9. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Leverage in other related sectors: – 2013: Durban is invited to become one of the seven cities internationally testing the indicator set for the proposed urban Sustainable Development Goal. In 2015 the MDGs will be replaced by a set of SDGs. Council formerly endorses Durban’s support for an urban SDG. – 2014: Mayor Nxumalo is invited to high level gathering of Mayors (New York, Paris, Melbourne, Buenos Aires, Shenzhen, Bogota, Johannesburg) and Ambassadors in New York on the urban SDG. Durban’s leadership in the climate change adaptation

10. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Partnerships: why are they so critical? Perhaps not surprising but often overlooked: – partnerships enable knowledge sharing and bring disparate disciplines and partners together A systemic approach sounds good on paper, but how can we know we’re really making progress? – Research – Pilot programmes – Long term monitoring, verification, and comparative studies Relevant partnerships improve learning and knowledge exchange, funding etc.

11. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Ask how much? What does a green economy cost? Is it cost effective? How does it shape up, in comparison with current economic models? The risks of current economic forecasting Long term cost-benefit analyses: Economists and politicians need convincing – They need to show support for the green economy Is GDP the only feasible measure? Thinking outside the box: – Yes, Gross National Happiness must be considered

12. PEP20, Edinburgh: Implementing the SDGs for inclusive, climate resilient green economies Thank you