1. The Prediction of Wind-Driven Coastal Circulation PIs: John Allen and Jack Barth, OSU Academic Partners: Government Partners: Industrial Partners: COAS, OSU, Corvallis, OR (Allen, Barth, Boyd, Caldwell, Egbert, Huyer, Kosro, Levine, Miller, Moum, Samelson, Skyllingstad) NOAA, NMFS, Newport, OR (Peterson) NOAA, ETL, Boulder, CO (Harlan, Wilczak) CODAR Ocean Sensors, Los Altos, CA (Barrick, Lipa) Ocean Imaging, Solana Beach, CA (Svejkovsky)

2. OSU NOPP Goal: Develop nowcast and forecast systems for wind-driven coastal ocean flow fields (alongshore coastal jets, upwelling and downwelling fronts, eddies, surface and bottom boundary layers) Approach: High-resolution coastal ocean and coastal atmospheric models Data assimilation and bio-optics land-based coastal radar moorings turbulence profiling atmospheric profiling SeaSoar and MiniBAT hydrography Observational program

3. Barth, Kosro wind-driven upwelling separated by wind relaxation events upwelling over the shelf, broadening over the submarine banks subsurface thermal features influenced by submarine bank topography OSU-NOPP: Ocean Observations

4. Land-based coastal radar (CODAR) surface velocities Alongshore jet following bottom topography and intensified over the submarine banks Kosro, Harlan OSU-NOPP: Ocean Observations

5. OSU-NOPP: Atmospheric Model Samelson, Skyllingstad, Wilczak mean and variable alongshore wind stress increases by a factor of 3-4 from north to south intensification near Cape Blanco at 43N

6. OSU-NOPP: Atmospheric Model Samelson, Skyllingstad, Wilczak atmospheric model provides useful estimates of Model (solid) vs. buoy (dashed) wind stress Model minus buoy surface air temperature (solid) vs. alongshore wind stress (dashed) wind stress ocean upwelling evidently modifies coastal surface air temperature by 1-5 degrees C over time scales of 1-2 days (Model SST is from large-scale analysis that does not resolve upwelling response.)

7. OSU-NOPP: Coastal Ocean Model With spatially uniform windsWith spatially varying winds Results with spatially varying wind stress forcing are qualitatively and quantitatively closer to observations Modeled (solid) vs. observed (dashed) alongshelf currents at 20m (top) with spatially uniform winds (bottom) with spatially variable winds Allen, Gan (Moored observations: Levine, Kosro, Boyd)

8. OSU-NOPP: Data Assimilating Coastal Ocean Model Oke, Allen, Miller, Egbert, Kosro wind observed velocity with assimilation modeled (no data) Land-based radar velocities assimilated into a primitive equation ocean circulation model velocity correlations between observations and the data-assimilating model substantially improved over a model with no assimilation Data-assimilating model surface temperature maps capture observed broadening of upwelling region over Heceta Bank 1998