1. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Seoul, Korea, June 1-3, 2005 Nicolas Wagneur / Gilles Verner Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Canadian Meteorological Centre 6 th APSDEU Meeting

2. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Outline Current status: –MSC Satellite Reception Facilities –MSC / CMC Participation in EARS –Telecoms and Computers –NWP System at CMC –MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR Changes to NWP System since last meeting –New 15-km regional GEM –Incorporation of new datasets: AMSUA-AQUA / GOES-12 radiances / USA Profilers / MODIS winds / GOES-P BUFR winds –Implementation of EnKF in EPS –Implementation of 4D-Var in global system Future Plans and Requirements for Data

3. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien MSC Forecast Offices and Satellite Reception Facilities Each MSC Office has a GOES Direct Readout Station. CMC has 3 GOES Readout Stations. MSC operates 2 HRPT Stations: Halifax and Edmonton. Data from a non-MSC Northern station is also available (Resolute). CMC has DOMSAT system for AVHRR- GAC (TeraScan)

4. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien MSC Forecast Offices and Satellite Reception Facilities Each MSC Office has a GOES Direct Readout Station. CMC has 3 GOES Readout Stations. MSC operates 2 HRPT Stations: Halifax and Edmonton. Data from a non-MSC Northern station is also available (Resolute). CMC has DOMSAT system for AVHRR- GAC (TeraScan) X X X X X X X X

5. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien HRPT Receive Sites CMC Edmonton Halifax Gilmore Creek, Alaska Tromso Direct Receive DOMSAT EARS Wallops, Virginia

6. Eumetsat ATOVS Retransmission Service System Overview HRPT AAPP USERS UPLINK EUMETSAT NOAA EUMETCast STATIONS NWP SAF Quality Control GTS Courtesy of Eumetsat MSC/CMC are participants in EARS

7. AAPP Processing Node Central Site – CMC Dorval HRPT Data Provider Networks and Equipment EUMETSAT Equipment in Dorval Communication Provider Equipment Router EARS: MSC HRPT Data Provider Sites Central HRPT Equipment HRPT Gander HRPT Edmonton HRPT Halifax ICD AD.1 Courtesy of Eumetsat Gan- der now NA

8. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMC Computer Center Configuration

9. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Telecommunications GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T1 during 2003 Upgrade was done for exchange of NWP model output (for EPS) and Canadian Radar data Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GOES – MTSAT? ) Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS Internet still used for access to Nesdis data Funding for dedicated link (T1+) with Nesdis approved, hope to implement operational link after the Nesdis relocation

10. OPERATIONAL RUNS: MAIN COMPONENTS GEM model Global (100km) : 0-10/15 days Regional (15km) : 0-48 hours HIMAP (10km) : 0-24 hours air quality (CHRONOS) Environmental Emergency Transport model (CANERM) Trajectory model monthly and seasonal forecasts global assimilation cycle 4D Var Analysis (data collection and assimilation) Models, 6-hour forecast (trial field) Wave model (WAM) regional data assimilation ensemble forecasts (16 members) surface analysis

11. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMC Data Assimilation Cycles

12. CMC Operational Models Global ModelRegional Model Uniform grid Resolution of.9º (~100 km) 28 eta levels Kuo convection scheme Sundqvist stratiform scheme Force-restore surface module with climatogical soil moisture 10 day forecasts at 00Z and 6 day forecasts at 12Z. Cut-off of T+3h10 Variable resolution grid Resolution of.1375º (~15 km) 58 eta levels Kain-Fritsch scheme Sundqvist stratiform scheme ISBA surface module with soil moisture pseudo-analysis (error feedback, no data) 48-hour forecasts (00Z -12Z) Cut-off of T+1h35 4D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T108), but regional system still 3D-Var Background errors from 24-48 method Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR GEM model (global, regional, meso)

13. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien 575 X 641 grid ( 66% in 15-km uniform area ), 58 levels Regional model

14. CMC Operational Models (cont.) Mesoscale model Global EPS GEM variable grid (HiMAP) Resolution of.09º (~10 km) L35 Kain-Fritsch convection scheme Sundqvist condensation scheme ISBA surface module No assimilation cycle (started from 6hr regional) 30 hour forecasts at 06/18Z EnKF assimilation cycle with 96 members, GEM at 1.2º Resolution of ~150 km (1.2º for GEM and T149 for SEF) Forecasts with 16 members Multi model approach with different physics options 10 day forecasts at 00Z

15. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Observations for 4D-Var assimilation TYPE FORMAT / INSTRUMENT PLATFORMVARIABLES Upper-air soundings radiosonde pilot dropsonde (profiler) land stations ships aircraft (dropsonde) temperature moisture winds sfc pressure Surface observations synoptic land stations ships fixed buoys drifting buoys temperature moisture sfc pressure winds (marine) Satellite NOAA ATOVS amsu-a & amsu-b circumpolar (NOAA series) (Aqua, amsu-a) radiance GOES imager geostationary (GOES-W) (GOES-E) radiance AMVs ( IR, WV, VI channels) geostationary (GOES-E/W/P, METEOSAT-5/7) (circumpolar, Terra & Aqua) derived winds Aircrafts BUFR / AMDAR AIREP / ADS Aircrafts (single level & profiles) temperature winds

16. MSC Doppler Radar Network now completed! All volume scans available at CMC.

17. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Largest Regional with 67 DHC-8s and increasing fleet of CRJs to 65 by Feb 2006 Started with 21 DHC-8 100 in June 2002 but T bias issue ACARS-based system ARINC 620 Supp. 4 format Fall 2004: Improvement to Temperature sensor Jan 2005: Data on GTS Canadian AMDAR: Development with AC Jazz CRJs equipped with Collins CMU-900 – data from 10 first CRJs since Apr 04 Fall 2004… DHC-8s were upgraded with dual Spirent Air Data Computers (ADC), dual Spirent temperature probes and Universal Avionics UL-70x

18. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Sabre Command & Control System C&C Operational since 5 February 2005

19. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien AMDAR-Jazz Met Report Specifications Canadian AMDAR software specifications are based on ARINC 620 Supplement 4

20. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Canadian AMDAR coverage

21. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Monitoring of Canadian AMDAR - DHC-8 Temp. August 02

22. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Improvement to T Bias on DHC-8 Aircraft Significant change in TT/UV biases: probes changes by Jazz in Dec 04! CMC Aug 02

23. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien T Bias on DHC-8 Aircraft Density plot of innovations of temperature, all data for month of January 2005. Note that the temperature bias of the DHC-8 is almost gone! CMC

24. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien DHC-8 Aircraft Wind Monitoring Scatter plot for wind, all data for month of March 2005. Note a few bad values when forecasting light winds! CMC

25. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien CRJ Aircraft TT Monitoring Density plot of innovations of temperature, all data for month of March 2005. Generally good temperature data! Also wind but not shown. CMC

26. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien First Air Route (http://www.firstair.ca/images/FA-ROUTE.gif)

27. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien First Air System being developed Integration with Amelia.MET ISAT Box from SkyTrac TAMDAR from AirDat

28. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Progress Status: First Air First Proof Of Concept system about to be tested on a test B727 If test is positive, proceed with implementation on 8 aircraft by 31 March 2005 If funding is available, proceed with implementation on 7 remaining aircraft by 31 March 2006 Long-term agreement being developed with First Air Fleet is: 4 B727 aircraft (3 combined passenger-freight models and 1 full freighter). 3 B737 combined passenger- freight aircraft. 8 ATR-42-300 aircraft.

29. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Other Canadian observations Canadian AMDAR : other developments with West Jet, AMS, Canadian North and First Air (data in Northern Canada) “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail. Canadian radar data - now available centrally at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) operational, full volume scans available. Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…problems with BUFR data Montreal mesonet, including research wind profiler: under installation but operated by Universities, data not yet available to CMCand redistribution restrictions may apply…should be provided to USA profiler hub Some soil TT data available, eventually in BUFR.

30. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting New GEM regional model evaluated in parallel during Spring 04 MPI code 15 km, 58 levels (575 x 641 grid) Minimum resolution of 350 km Sundqvist condensation scheme Kain-Fritsch convection scheme Moist TKE (Turbulence en air saturé) Ktrans Shallow convection Very good results for mass/wind and PCPN 8x more cpu than previous regional model (24km, 28 levels) Incorporated AMSUB and GOES radiance data (as in global) Implemented May 18, 2004

31. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Results from PAR run: Oper 24- km vs new 15-km GEM; NOAM mid-feb to mid-apr 04 GZ500UV250

32. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Results from PAR run: Oper 24- km vs new 15-km GEM; NOAM mid-feb to mid-apr 04

33. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting New datasets, implemented September 21, 2004: Global + Regional AMSU-A on AQUA MODIS Polar Winds (AQUA / Terra) GOES 6.7 micron channel for GOES 12 (GOES-10 was already assimilated) USA Wind profilers BUFR Winds for GOES-P (JMA dataset) Revision of data preprocessing in preparation for 4D-Var (thinning procedures, but no change for 3D-Var)

34. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien MODIS Wind Selection 1. Blacklisting rules (to keep the data): Time Window: ±1h30 of analysis time (3D-Var) Derivation Method: 1: IR 2: WV (cloudy regions) Levels: IR above 700 hPa, WV above 550 hPa Obs. Wind speed: > 2.5 m/s Land Mask: over ocean only except above 400 hPa Quality Indicator: RFF above threshold of 0.6 3. Background Check removes about 0.1% of the remaining observations 3. Spatial Thinning Mainly to limit the impact of spatial correlation of observation errors horizontal resolution of ~ 180 km 11 vertical pressure layers priority given to the obs. 1- closest to analysis time 2- maximum QI value

35. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien MODIS Polar Winds Impact trial with the Canadian Meteorological Centre Assimilation System Verification against radiosondes, day 3, Canadian Arctic region, UU East-West wind component left side, UV Wind speed right side, Bias dashed lines, RMSE solid lines, red no MODIS winds, blue with MODIS winds MOWSAP II period, 86 Forecasts every 12hrs from 2004071300 to 2004082412 Started with the final analyses of the assimilation cycle UU UV

36. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien MODIS Polar Winds Impact trial with the Canadian Meteorological Centre Assimilation System Verification against analyses, Anomaly correlation, day 1-5, for 60°- 90° North and South

37. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien GOES-12 water vapor channel Addition of GOES EAST data to already assimilated GOES WEST Local processing from raw images received by direct broadcast –5 imager channels remapped on a 0.1º grid –Imager 4 (11 μ) used for cloud analysis, but only imager 3 (6.7 μ) is currently assimilated. Same processing as for GOES-WEST –Only one location selected per 1 X 1 deg area –Simple bias correction: bias= aBT + b –Radiances assimilated above low clouds if local response function allows it (not sensitive to cloud) –Max satellite zenith angle of 70° (60 deg latitude) Direct radiance assimilation –Uses MSCFAST radiative transfer model –Gross error check against background (6 hour forecast) –One radiance assimilated every 2 deg to alleviate possible error correlation which are not taken into account in current system

38. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien GOES WEST pixel selection

39. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Both GOES satellites pixel selection

40. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Parallel suite with all new data sets: June 28 – Sept. 21, 2004 Evaluation done in operational context (model launched with short cutoffs) Day to day subjective evaluation by forecasters, positive evaluation Objective score comparison with operational suite –Global model : July 5 – Sept 21, 2004 –Regional model : July 21 – Sept 21, 2004 Implemented on Sept. 21, 2004

41. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien meters/second Forecast hours meters Results from Parallel Run – Global System

42. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien meters/second meters Forecast hours Results from Parallel Run – Regional System

43. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Operational WMO Verification GEM-15

44. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting Ensemble Kalman Filter in EPS, implemented 12 January 2005 EnKF assimilation cycle with 96 members, GEM at 1.2º EnKF uses same observations as operational 3D/4DVar, differences in data selection and thinning. E.g. assimilation of AMSUA Observation operators and data QC from 3D/4DVar Forecasts: 16 members (Multi-model: SEF T149 and GEM 1.2º) Different model options used for both models, forecast mode only Forecasts done once a day up to 10 days

45. ENSEMBLE SET-UP and Z0, SST, Alb medium-range forecasts perturbed fields for roughness lenght sea surface temperature albedo random numbers observations and perturbed observations random numbers EnKF data assimilation first guess perturbed analysis 6 hour integrations with GEM model medium-range integration with model SEF Selection of 16 analysis medium-range integration with model GEM

46. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien EnKF vs OI assimilation 6-hr Fcst Northern Hemisphere 24 Oct – 24 Nov EnKF OI Std and Bias

47. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien EnKF vs OI assimilation 6-hr Fcst Southern Hemisphere 24 Oct – 24 Nov EnKF OI Std and Bias

48. Review of EPS at CMC : 500hPa OLD vs NEW

49. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting Global 4D-Var Assimilation Cycle, implemented March 15, 2005. 6h window with 45 min time step. Same observation dataset as 3D-Var except for 4D data thinning. Spatial data selection is done for each 45 min time bin. Incremental analysis performed at T108. GEM tangent-linear and adjoint models on 240 x 120 grid. 2 outer loops:  40 inner loops : adiabatic physics (vertical diffusion)  30 inner loops : improved physics (SGO, large scale condensation, convection)

50. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien TypeVariablesThinning radiosonde/dropsonde U, V, T, (T-T d ), p s 28 levels Surface report T, (T-T d ), p s, (U, V over water) 1 report/6h Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) U, V, T1 o x 1 o x 50 hPa ATOVS NOAA 15-16-17, AQUA Ocean Land AMSU-A 3-10 6-10 AMSU-B 2-5 3-4 250 km x 250 km Water vapor channel GOES 10-12 IM3 (6.7  ) 2 o x 2 o AMV (Meteosat 5-7, GOES 9-10-12) U,V (IR, WV, VI channels) 1.5 o x 1.5 o MODIS (Aqua, Terra) U,V1.5 o x 1.5 o Profiler (NOAA Network) U,V(750 m) Vertical Observations assimilated in 4D-Var

51. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien 4D-Var 3D-Var 6 hours Distribution of data assimilated in the 6-h window Radiosonde Aircraft AMV Surface Profiler GOES ATOVS (A) ATOVS (B)

52. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Type4D-Var3D-VarDifference Aircraft164 06454 911+199% Radiosonde91 05391 034 ~0% AMV166 01080 124+107% ATOVS261 264177 944+47% GOES16 4379 258+76% Profiler25 4274 282+494% Surface54 30854 303~0% TOTAL778 563471 856+60% Average amount of data assimilated per day

53. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Summer 2004: North America Anomaly Correlation GZ 500 hPa over North America 4D-Var 3D-Var

54. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Summer 2004: Southern Hemisphere Anomaly Correlation GZ 500 hPa over the Southern Hemisphere 4D-Var 3D-Var

55. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien -4-8-12-161161284 ImprovementDegradation(m) Summer 2004: RMS of Error Differences at 72h RMS error differences (4D-Var – 3D-Var) GZ 500 hPa 72h

56. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Winter 2003-2004: North America Anomaly Correlation GZ 500 hPa over North America 4D-Var 3D-Var

57. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Anomaly Correlation GZ 500 hPa over the Southern Hemisphere 4D-Var 3D-Var Winter 2003-2004: Southern Hemisphere

58. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien RMS error differences (4D-Var – 3D-Var) GZ 500 hPa 72h Winter 2003-2004: RMS of Error Differences at 72h -4-8-12-161161284 ImprovementDegradation(m)

59. 4D-Var 3D-Var 4D-Var (simpler) 4D-Var (simpler,1 loop) 4D-Var (thinning 3D) 7% (better simplified physics) 3% (Updated trajectory) 35% (thinning 4D) (TL/AD dynamics) 55% FGAT (thinning 3D) FGAT (thinning 4D) 16% 18% Impact of the various components of 4D-Var

60. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Implementations planned 2005-06 Improved GEM Global model Late 2005 Assimilation: new datasets –NOAA-N ATOVS, MSG winds, MTSAT-1R winds Fall 2005 –SSM/I and SSM/IS radiance, AIRS, QuikScat and COSMIC(after new global GEM) Spring 2006 –Stratos AMSU-A channels + AMSU-B (raised model top)2006 + –More IR channels (GOES, METEOSAT, MTSAT and IASI) –Sfc GPS, ASCAT EPS twice a day and 20 members, 15 days Fall 2005 GEM-LAM 2.5 km, 1 or 2 windows Summer 2005 LAM 4D-Var 2007-2008

61. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Improved Global GEM Numerics / Dynamics 800 x 600 x L58 (i.e., 33 km at 49 o ) Timestep of 15 min Numerical poles at geographical poles  6 horizontal diffusion on momentum variables Modified sponge layer at model top Filtered orography from USGS Physics Constant thermodynamic roughness over water surfaces No vertical smoothing on net radiational fluxes Bougeault-Lacarrere mixing length for the vertical diffusion MoisTKE for boundary-layer clouds Shallow convection with Kuo Transient Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch Grid-scale condensation with a modified Sundqvist scheme (consun)

62. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Priorities for Satellite Data METEOSAT/MSG and MTSAT-1R Imagery (Also CSR product) High Density AMV for MTSAT ATOVS: Improved access to Level 1B data (new link with Nesdis), Canadian HRPT data (processing with AAPP) for regional model (cut-off of T+90 min.) and EARS. NOAA-N and METOP data. RARS in Asia- Pacific. SSM/IS (no data received yet) QuikScat and Envisat (AATSR), both now received, tests underway MODIS Products (Winds, SST, LAI, Cloud), winds operational. A more “operational like” status of NOAA wind product would be very useful. AIRS (assimilation now being tested) COSMIC as soon as available

63. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Surface analyses

64. Environment Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Centre météorologique canadien Surface analyses (cont.)