1. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Josée Morneau Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada. Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report

2. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Outline Current Operational Status: (Gilles Verner) –MSC Organization and Satellite Reception Facilities –Telecoms and Computers –Operational NWP System at CMC and Data Usage –MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR –Recent changes to NWP System and impact Recent and Future Developments: (Josée Morneau)

3. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Environment Canada – 2004 Minister David Anderson Deputy Minister Suzanne Hurtubise REGIONS Ontario AtlanticPrairie & NorthernQuebecPacific & Yukon A S S I S T A N T D E P U T Y M I N I S T E R S Environmental Conservation Service Karen Brown Environmental Protection Service Barry Stemshorn Meteorological Service of Canada Marc Denis Everell Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency Corp. Services Hélène Beauchemin Policy & Commumications. Norine Smith

4. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 1. Air quality is improved [Gordon Owen] 3. Canadians and their environment are protected from the effects of pollution and waste 4. The impacts of climate change on Canada are reduced 2. Weather and environmental predictions and services reduce risks and contribute to the well- being of Canadians 1. Canada’s natural capital is restored, conserved, and enhanced 3. Risks to Canadians and impacts on air, water, and land from pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are managed (Anne O’Toole l] 2. Risks to Canadians and their environment posed by pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are assessed [John Arseneau] 1. Canadians are informed of environmental pollution and are engaged in measures to address it [John Arseneau] 1. Wildlife is conserved and protected [Trevor Swerdfager] 2. Land and landscapes are managed sustainably. [Bob McLean ] 2. Science supports weather and environmental predictions and services, Departmental decision- making and policy development [Michel Béland ] 1. Environmental forecasts and warnings are produced to enable the public to take action to protect their safety, security and well being [Angèle Simard ] Environment Canada 2006 – Results based Management A. Biodiversity is conserved and protected. B. Water is clean, safe and secure A. Improved knowledge and information on weather and environmental conditions influences decision-making B. Canadians are informed of, and respond appropriately to, current and predicted environmental conditions B. Canadians adopt sustainable consumption and production approaches A. Risks posed by pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances in the environment are reduced A. Net emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced. B. Canadians understand the impacts of climate change and adapt to its effects Attain the highest level of environmental quality as a means to enhance the well-being of Canadians, preserve our natural environment, and advance our long-term competitiveness 2. Canadians are better informed through improved weather and environmental services and leveraged partnership opportunities [David Grimes–l] 1. Environmental monitoring allows EC to identify, analyse and predict weather, air, water and climate conditions [Tom Nichols] 2. Sector-based, and other approaches promote sustainable consumption and production (Cynthia Wright ] 1. Integrated information and knowledge enables integrated approaches to protecting and conserving priority ecosystems [Jim Abraham & Albin Tremblay ] 2. Information, assessment and understanding of the state of ecosystem sustainability supports decision-making [Michelle Brenning] 3. Canadians benefit from the creation and use fo meteorological, and environmental information by EC and F/P/T partners, in support of programs of common interest [Ken Macdonald] 1. The climate change plan, Moving Forward on Climate Change, is implemented [Michael Beale 2. The long-term global climate change regime is consistent with Canadian interests [Sharon Lee Smith] Departmental Strategic Outcomes CESF Outcome: Outcome Project Groupings Intermediate Outcomes C. Canadians adopt approaches that ensure the sustainable use and management of natural capital and working landscapes 1. Aquatic ecosystems are conserved and protection [John Carey] 4. Environmental information and services empower Canadians to take action on environmental priorities [Suzan Bowserl] 1. Adaptive strategies to address the impacts of climate change are developed and implemented for the benefit of Canadians and the environment (Michel Béland] CESF - Competitiveness and Environmental Sustainability Framework

5. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 HRPT Receive Sites CMC Edmonton Halifax Gilmore Creek, Alaska Tromso Wallops, Virginia Direct Receive DOMSAT EARS Readiness For METOP Next Summer Any METOP downloads at Gilmore Creek and Wallops?

6. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 GOES Receive Sites CMC (3) Montréal Edmonton Halifax Direct Receive New - Gander? Readiness For GOES-N Next Summer Vamcouver Winnipeg Toronto Ottawa

7. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006

8. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Telecommunications GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T1 during 2003 Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GOES - GTS back-up) Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS Internet still used for access to Nesdis data Funding for dedicated link (T1+) with Nesdis approved, should be implemented soon as operational link, after the Nesdis relocation

9. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 CMC Operational Models Global Model Regional Model Uniform grid Resolution of.9º (~100 km) 28 eta levels, lid at 10 hPa Kuo convection scheme Sundqvist stratiform scheme Force-restore surface module with climatogical soil moisture 10 day forecasts at 00Z and 6 day forecasts at 12Z. Cut-off of T+3h10 Variable resolution grid Resolution of.1375º (~15 km) 58 eta levels Kain-Fritsch scheme Sundqvist stratiform scheme ISBA surface module with soil moisture pseudo-analysis (error feedback, no data) 48-hour forecasts (00Z -12Z) Cut-off of T+1h35 4D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T108), but 3D-Var for regional Background errors stats from 24-48 method Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR Single GEM model (global, regional, meso)

10. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 CMC Operational Models (cont.) Mesoscale model Global EPS GEM-LAM at 2.5 km, L58 Non-hydrostatic No convection parameterization Explicit condensation (Kong-Yau) ISBA surface module No assimilation cycle (started from 12hr GEM-15 + BC) 24 hour forecasts at 12Z 2 windows (SRN BC, Windsor- Québec corridor), more later EnKF assimilation cycle with 96 members, GEM at 1.2º Resolution of ~150 km (1.2º for GEM and T149 for SEF) Forecasts with 16 members Multi model approach with different physics options 16 day forecasts at 00Z and 12Z Cooperation with NCEP for NAEFS

11. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 575 X 641 grid ( 66% in 15-km uniform area), 58 levels Regional model

12. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Currently two GEM 2.5 domains

13. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 06 UTC12 UTC18 UTC 00 UTC OBS T + 6h OBS T + 9h OBS T + 9h OBS T + 9h OBS T + 3h OBS T + 3h OBS T + 3h 00 UTC 240h global fst 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis T + 6h OBS T + 5h30 6-h regional first guess 3D-Var Analysis 6-h regional first guess T + 1h40 OBS 3D-Var Analysis 48h regional fst T + 1h40 OBS T + 5h30 3D-Var Analysis 6-h regional first guess 6-h regional first guess 3D-Var Analysis 144h global fst Data assimilation cycles at CMC

14. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 (750 m) Vertical hourly U,V Profiler (NOAA Network) ~180 km boxes 11 layers, per time step U,V MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra) 1.5 o x 1.5 o 11 layers, per time step U,V (IR, WV, VI channels) AMV (Meteosat 5-8, GOES 10-12, MTSAT-1R) 2 o x 2 o 3-hourly IM3 (6.7  ) Water vapor channel GOES 10-12 250 km x 250 km per time step Ocean Land AMSU-A 3-10 6-10 AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4 ATOVS NOAA 15-16-17-18, AQUA 1 o x 1 o x 50 hPa per time step U, V, T Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) 1 report / 6hT, (T-T d ), p s, (U, V over water)Surface report 28 levelsU, V, T, (T-T d ), p s radiosonde/dropsonde ThinningVariablesType Observations assimilated at the CMC

15. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Average amount of data assimilated per day +0% +199% +107% +47% +76% +494% Overall ~ 800 000 data assimilated per day with 4D-Var 60% increase over 3D-Var.

16. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Availability of aircraft data ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO (on GTS since July 05) Q: Where are the ADS data East of 30° E? Also AIREPs have almost disappeared there !!

17. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Canadian AMDAR coverage

18. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Canadian AMDAR - Status AC Jazz: 33 CRJ and 39 DHC-8 on GTS, 10 DHC-8 retained due to problems with data quality. More CRJ being added. CRJ data very good. Still issues with DHC-8 TT data, although improved. Some data from AMS (DHC-8 and B737) but not used nor transmitted due to data quality issues. Some progress with First Air (B737 or B727 with TAMDAR) but data quality issues related to TAMDAR calibration. Some TAMDAR evaluation with GLFE. C-ADAS to be replaced by in-house software. Monitoring of data is on-going. Results showing importance of good monitoring before distribution of data.

19. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8

20. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8 For DHC-8, significant difference in bias between ascent / descent data. Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics. CRJ data OK.

21. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE

22. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE Some problems with GLFE TAMDAR data earlier in experiment

23. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE GLFE TAMDAR data much improved after significant work by AIRDAT. HR data not monitored.

24. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Other Canadian observations Canadian AMDAR : other developments (although slow) with West Jet, AMS, Canadian North, First Air. “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail. Canadian radar data - now available centrally at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) operational, full volume scans available. Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR. Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…problems with BUFR data. Montreal mesonet, including research wind profiler: under installation but operated by Universities, data not yet available to CMC and redistribution restrictions may apply…should be provided to USA profiler hub Some soil TT data available, eventually in BUFR. Code conversion to BUFR: Nothing done, except for AMDAR. Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone. Major data management project in MSC, should lead to all data available in BUFR. Target is 2-3 years.

25. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Ozone/UV Monitoring Networks Brewer: UVA/B and total column ozone at 9 sites. Data in NRT in local ascii format. Ozone soundings now done once weekly at 10 sites. Data on GTS in CREX, 2-3 days after measurement. Both are Research networks. Some discussions for better operations, including data transmission and formats.

26. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 CACS/RT: Canada-Wide Real-Time(GPS*C Service) CACS/PGR: Post-Glacial Rebound CACS/ATS: Arctic Tracking Stations CACS/GLP: Great Lakes Partnership (Sfc Met, CSA/MSC) CACS/WCDA:Western Canada Deformation Array A potential Canadian ground-based GPS network Not shown: regional (provincial) networks, Canadian Coast Guard sites Raw GPS data received for ~30 sites from NRCan and IGS via FTP and processed in-house to ZTD (since Summer 2005) Sfc Met at 19 sites Hourly network (GAMIT) and Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are made available in NRT (J. Aparicio) Potential of ~ 127 sites not processed processed by NOAA/FSL = Radiosonde-GPS collocations (7)

27. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting Minor changes : AMV’s from MTSAT-1R : July 2005 (replacing GOES-P) Blacklisting of DHC-8 AMDAR : Oct 2005 Blacklisting amsu-a ch 6 from NOAA-15 : Oct 2005 Blacklisting amsu-b ch a from NOAA-15 : Jan 2006 Assimilation of satellite data, December 7, 2005, in Global + Regional systems AMSU-A and MHS on NOAA-18 BUFR Winds for Meteosat-8 (replacing Meteosat-7) Major changes to EPS on December 13, 2005 Forecast twice a day to day 16 Inclusion of MODIS winds and AMSUA on AQUA Improvements to EnKF algorithm (model error) EnKF – 2x48 members replaced by 4x24 (better stats) In forecast models, use of ISBA for ½ of members

28. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Recent NWP verification GEM-15 4D-Var New Sat data

29. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 CSA Chinook mission The CSA decided in early 2004 to make SWIFT the primary instrument for their second SciSat mission Chinook Mission The CSA selects GPS instrument as secondary payload with SWIFT and creates the Chinook Mission March 2005 SWIFTARGOSWIFT and partner experiment ARGO are just about to start mission phase B/C contract/studies for projected launch in Nov 2010, 3 year mission Unclear at this stage if data will be available in real- time, work and funding needed for this.

30. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 PART 2 : Outline Recent & future developments 2006 : –Summer : new version of global model for Medium-range forecasting system & 4D-Var analysis changes –Fall : Update to Regional model for Short-Range Forecasting system 2007 : –Winter : METOP amsu-a & mhs, AIRS, SSMI & SSMI/S, COSMIC, 3 hourly sfc obs, QuikSCAT, update to AMV’s. Revised bgck & obs error statistics. Off-line biais correction for radiance data. 2008+ : –Raise global model lid to 0,1 hPa –More obs … –GEM-LAM with Continental/Local 4D-Var LAM

31. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Main Features of the New Model Version Increased horizontal and vertical resolution 800x600x58L (33 km) compared to 400x200x28L (100 km) Numerical poles at geographic locations (non-rotated) Representation of clouds and precipitation Shallow convection with Kuo Transient Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch (vs Kuo) Modified Sundqvist scheme for grid-scale condensation Bougeault-Lacarrère for the turbulent mixing length (vs Blackadar) Constant thermodynamic roughness length over water in the Tropics (vs Charnock everywhere) ISBA land surface scheme with sequential assimilation of soil moisture (based on OI) (vs Force-Restore) (Stéphane Bélair, MRD)

32. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Other Changes to the 4D-Var Analysis (Stéphane Laroche, MRD) GEM-GlbNew GEM-Glb Outer loops22 High-resolution (trajectory) 400x200x28L Time step = 45 min 800x600x58L Time step = 15 min NL- PhysicsSame as GEM-GlbSame as new model Inner loops40 + 30 = 7030 + 25 = 55 Simplified Physics-PBL & SGO -Stratiform precip. -Deep convection -PBL & SGO -Stratiform precip. Low-resolution (Analysis increments) 240x120x28L Time step = 45 min 240x120x58L Time step = 45 min Error statisticsNMC (1999)NMC (revised)

33. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Horizontal Grid Environment Canada CPOP – 11 April 2006 Opérationnel Global-méso 400X200 -> 100 km 800X600 -> 33 km at 45 o N

34. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Vertical Levels Opérationnel 10hPa 28 eta levels DZ (km) Global-méso 10hPa 58 eta levels DZ (km)

35. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 JAN 2002 Contours: (mm/day) 0-1 1-5 5-10 10-20 >20 Global Evaluation of Precipitation GPCP NEW OPE

36. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 GPCP NEW OPE JUL 2002 Contours: (mm/day) 0-1 1-5 5-10 10-20 >20 Global Evaluation of Precipitation

37. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I WINTER new ope SSMI-13 new ope SSMI-13

38. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I SUMMER new ope SSMI-13 new ope SSMI-13

39. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Pre-implementation testing Evaluation was done on 2 periods of two months each: Summer 2004: 15 july @ 15 sept. 2004 Winter 2005: 15 dec 2004 @ 15 feb 2005

40. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Environment Canada Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Northern Hem.) SummerWinter

41. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Environment Canada Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Southern Hem.) SummerWinter

42. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Tropics 72-h forecasts RMSE and BIAS 125 SUMMER cases Blue: Operational model Red: Global Meso

43. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Precipitation over North America (day 3) SummerWinter

44. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Typhoons over 14 cases (3-day runs) Environment Canada (Anne-Marie Leduc, CMC) Central pressure (hPa) Position (km)

45. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Winter 2007 : more observations & revised statistics AIRS & SSMI radiances 3 hourly sfc data Off-line biais correction for radiances data. Revised background & observation errors statistics More low level AMV’s SSMI/S radiances QuikSCAT Metop ATOVS amsu-a & mhs COSMIC refractivity

46. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 AIRS assimilation 100 channels selected from 281 set Use center pixel of 3 X 3 array (warmest now available) Eliminate channels sensitive to ozone, peaking above model top at 10hPa, redundant surface channels, complex Jacobian shapes, with large RTM errors Identify channels insensitive to clouds. Main criteria: Cloud height and emissivity from CO2 slicing. Local dtau/dp must be negligible up to 50hpa above cloud. Background check (+/- 3  )

47. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 AIRS assimilation Short global cycle with current operational model (0,9 o ) February 2004

48. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 SSMI assimilation : Experiment Description Periods: July 1-31, 2003 ; January 1-31, 2004 Control: 3D-Var, Global 0.9 o model, direct assim. of GOES-W, and NOAA15,16,17 * AMSU- A & AMSU-B Tbs, plus conventional obs Experiment 1: addition of SSM/I Tbs over oceans in clear skies Experiment 8: addition of SSM/I Tbs & removal of AMSU-A CH3, & reject AMSU-B CH2, 3, 4, 5 over oceans where CH2 |O-B|  5K (* AMSU-A data unavailable for January 2004)

49. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Mean Integrated Water Vapour (kg m -2 ): AMSRE – ANALYSIS July 2003January 2004

50. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Forecast Validation Using Analyses CNTL EXP8 CNTL EXP1 January 2004

51. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 New Background Error Covariances 3-D background error std dev computed using Monte Carlo approach Will replace the NMC approach used for current operational system. Higher values in tropics than extra-tropics and higher values over oceans than over continents Streamfunction at 500hPa (filtered to T20) Winter 2007 : Updated background and observation error statistics (Mark Buehner, MRD)

52. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Background Error Spatial Correlations Analysis increment from single zonal wind observation at 500hPa over Atlantic ocean New approach gives sharper spatial correlations for all variables Sharper vertical correlations for temperature results in smaller background error variance in space of AMSU-A observations, compensated by reduction in σ obs NMC methodMonte Carlo method NMC method Monte Carlo method

53. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Future development 2007-08+ : –Raise global model lid to 0,1 hPa –More obs : High level peaking channels from AIRS & ATOVS Hourly sfc pressure data More GEO radiances Scat winds (ASCAT) AQ data –GEM-LAM Continental/Local 4D-Var LAM

54. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3-5 May, 2006 Thank you