1. Activity Drivers ME 449: Sustainable Air Quality Adam Shaw Sarah Lahr Michael Roberts 4/22/02

2. Overview n Physical activity drivers were assigned to each of the major pollution categories for which emission and consumption data was collected. n The data was divided into four major sectors: Industrial, Transportation, Commercial, and Residential. n Several industrial processes have significant emissions of a particular pollutant and should be considered separately. These are included in the XG category. n For areas such as the industrial sector which encompasses several activities, a major driver was chosen to represent the entire sector, although it may not directly affect some aspects of the sector.

3. Industrial The industrial activity was measured using the number of passenger car factory sales. This value fluctuated over time and is currently close to the value in 1950. This index was selected because it is representative of emission trends of “big ticket items” of the industrial industry.

4. Transportation n The transportation category was separated according to the type of fuel used. This broke down the sector into 4 major categories: Gasoline, Diesel, Airline, Marine. –Gasoline was measured by the combined passenger miles of automobiles, light-duty trucks, and motorcycles –Diesel was measured by combined ton-freight miles of trucks and railroad –Airline activity was measured using passenger airline miles –Marine activity was measured using marine ton-freight miles

5. Gasoline Activity Gasoline passenger miles have been rising steadily since 1950. Despite the constant increase in passenger miles, the use of energy per passenger mile (BTU/mile) has decreased.

6. Diesel Activity The diesel activity, like the gasoline, has increased steadily over time. Unlike the gasoline activity, however, the energy used per passenger mile (BTU/mile) for diesel has fluctuated and increased over time.

7. Airline Activity The airline passenger miles have increased steadily over time. After a peak in the late 1950s and early 1960s, the energy per airline passenger mile (BTU/mile) has decreased and is currently at an all-time low.

8. Marine Activity The marine ton-freight miles has fluctuated over time. The was a peak in approximately 1980, but since then it has been decreasing. The energy used per ton-freight mile (BTU/mile) has had varying values over time. It was declining until the mid-1980s and since then has been increasing.

9. Commercial Activity The sale of consumer durable goods has increased steadily since 1950,with a sharply increased growth rate since the early 1970’s. The amount of commercial floor space has also increased steadily since 1950, with a small decline in the early 1990’s but at a much slower rate than the sale of consumer durable goods.

10. Residential Activity The residential activity was measured by the number of occupied housing units for each year. The number has risen steadily since 1950, with no significant peaks of decreases.

11. Miscellaneous Activities (XG) n The activities that could not be assigned to one of the 4 categories was accounted for in the miscellaneous category. This consists of 6 categories: petroleum and related industries, chemical and allied product manufacturing, storage and transport, waste disposal and recycling, solvent utilization, and other industrial processes. –Petroleum and related industries was measured by the refinery output of petroleum products –Chemical and allied product manufacturing was measured using the output of sulfuric acid –Storage and transport was measured by the combined highway and railroad ton-freight miles –Waste disposal and recycling –Solvent utilization was measured by the asphalt and road oil output –Other industrial processes was measured using the GDP of private industries

12. Petroleum and Related Industries The refinery output of petroleum products has been increasing steadily, with the exception of the decrease in the early 1980s.

13. Chemical and Allied Product Manufacturing Sulfuric acid production had increased steadily, with only a few minor fluctuations over time.

14. Storage and Transport The highway and railroad ton-freight miles have been increasing over time. There has been very little fluctuation to the linear increase.

15. Waste Disposal and Recycling

16. Solvent Utilization The output of asphalt and road oil has increased over time, with fluctuations between the mid-1970s and mid 1980s. This output is now at an all-time high.

17. Other Industrial Activity “Other Industrial Activities” include a number of activities not included in the previous categories. Since it is not represented by a single activity, it is difficult to arrive at a common physical driver. Therefore, this category is measured against the yearly GDP of private industries.

18. Summary n From this data, analysis of how emissions and energy use relate to changes in activity will be performed. n This analysis was started for the transportation sector. –For most of the transportation subcategories, it was found that despite the increase in activity, the energy used per mile was decreasing.