1. What is NHS SoTW doing? Predictive modelling 22 September 2009 Working together to make South of Tyne and Wear healthy for you Better health Using your money wisely Excellent patient experience

2. Vision Where do we want to be? Vision & future state Where will we be if we do nothing? Predictive model What do we need to do to close the gap? Predictive model OGIM planning Predictive Modeling & Strategy Where are we now? JSNA etc

3. Our Vision Working together to make South of Tyne and Wear healthy for you Better health Using your money wisely Excellent patient experience Better health Excellent patient experience Using your money wisely

4. Better health Where are we now? Dramatic reduction & narrowing of gap in South Tyneside and Sunderland but not in Gateshead. The gap is still high in all three areas. Circulatory disease mortality under 75 years

5. Better health - future state Prevention Targets in partner plans Reduce inequalities Reduce risk factors Secondary prevention

6. Excellent patient experience Where are we now? Emergency hospital admission per 1000 population

7. Excellent patient experience - future state Choice Care close to home Every contact a health improvement contact Public confidence Self care, personal control Safe, effective care Whole systems care

8. Using your money wisely Where are we now? Emergency admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (usually treatable outside of hospital)

9. Wise use of money - future state Value for money No unnecessary waits Fit for purpose estate Right care, right place, first time

10. Where will we be if we do nothing? Forecast reductions in young but significant increases in the very elderly Without change by 2016 we will need 500 more hospital beds for over 40,000 more admissions, costing £50m

11. ObesitySmoking End of life Planned care Rehabilitation CVD risk Urgent care Alcohol Mental health Long term conditions Maternity Children What are we going to do? 12 strategic objectives Obesity Smoking AlcoholCVD Risk MSKMaternity Urgent care Children Mental Health LTC CVD Rehab End of Life

12. Childhood obesity We will ensure better health by minimising health risks and supporting the adoption of healthy lifestyles Alcohol-related admission Smoking in pregnancy Outcomes How will we know if the things we do get us to where we want to be? Smoking in people with a chronic condition Hypertension control for people with heart disease We will ensure better health through access to treatments that minimise the impact of risks and improve survival Breastfeeding Admissions for conditions treatable outside hospital We will improve patient experience and use money wisely Breastfeeding

13. Modeling the Future – the ‘Bigger Picture’ Predicted increase in elective demand over the next 10 years ( ≈ 20%)

14. Breastfeeding Modeling the Future – the ‘Bigger Picture’ Predicted increase in non-elective demand over the next 10 years ( ≈ 20%)

15. Breastfeeding Acute costs are expected to rise - if successful more activity shifted to primary care Modeling the Future – the ‘Bigger Picture’

16. Healthcare Trends – The Emerging Story Breastfeeding Increasing consultation demand with increasing age

17. Healthcare Trends – The Emerging Story Breastfeeding Increasing demand for home visits and telephone contact with age

18. Healthcare Trends – The Emerging Story Breastfeeding Consultations by age and HCP

19. Population Changes Breastfeeding ONS forecasts show a significant increase in the elderly over the next 10 and 20 years

20. Potential Impact on Consultations Breastfeeding Driven by an increase in the elderly, consultations are expected to increase year on year

21. Potential Impact on Consultations Breastfeeding The elderly population are dominating the potential increase in consultations

22. What picture is our work painting? Breastfeeding Increase in elderly population Year on year increase in consultations due to population alone Significant impact on workload, in particular for healthcare professionals that work with the elderly More home visits and telephone contacts required Increase in activity from secondary to primary care

23. Evaluating year 1 of the bigger picture work Breastfeeding

24. Evaluating year 1 of the bigger picture work In terms of prediction direction

25. Evaluating year 1 of the bigger picture work Breastfeeding In terms of prediction accuracy (± 10%)

26. Future plans for predictive modelling work Breastfeeding Extend bigger picture model  Extend by 1 year  Disease prevalence modelling  Incorporate Strategic Plan and QIPP plan initiatives  Workforce modelling  Combining primary care and secondary care  Mental health

27. Thank you Contact details Fiona.McDonald@sotw.nhs.uk 0191 5027172 Chris.Callan@sotw.nhs.uk 0191 5027170 Working together to make South of Tyne and Wear healthy for you Better health Using your money wisely Excellent patient experience