1. Danish Institute for International Studies Nicolas Teodors Veicherts Major DIIS 2004 – 2006 Afghanistan 2006 – 2007

2. My basic arguments… The overall end-state of interventions today is to create lasting stability in a country or region. The mean is democracy. The support from the local population is the centre of gravity of interventions today. The wars of the West are “easily won”.  War planning prior to an intervention should be based on post- conflict planning and not the other way around.  Post-conflict planning should be led by civilians and a civilian effort from the beginning of the post-conflict phase must be guaranteed.  The military main effort in the post-conflict phase must be guided by civilian objectives.

3. My agenda…  Some definitions of my own…  Some characteristics of today's interventions…  …so what does concerted planning and action (CPA) require?  Conclusion 1 + 2

4. GENOPBYGNING & UDVIKLING CONFLICT POST CONFLICT Lasting stability => Democracy CIVILIAN (DEVELOPMENT) EFFORT H MILITARY EFFORT Months5 – 12 years H H PLANNING A SKETCH OF AN INTERVENTION

5. MILITARY TASKS: Policing, destroying spoilers (ruins, wounded, homeless, polution) HUMANITARIAN TASKS: (camps, food, water, medical assistance, coordination, communikation) DEVELOPMENT TASKS: Infrastructure projects: Water/sanitation, education, training, governance, industry, elections. 3-block-warfare

6. The local population is the centre of gravity. People do not distinguish between negative peace (i.e. security) and positive peace (i.e. infrastructure, jobs, justice etc.).  This calls for an early and guaranteed civilian effort.  The civilian effort  the neglect of the former regime. What do we know about the interventions of today (1/3)

7. What do we know about the interventions of today (2/3) The West is guaranteed to win the initial (traditional) military battle. Collateral damages are limited.  The importance of war effort is reduced.  The post-conflict plan becomes more important than the war plan.

8. The local population is the centre of gravity.  This calls for an early civilian effort. The opponents main target is the centre of gravity  stop any progress. The opponents do not distinguish humanitarian efforts from other civilian efforts.  The civilian effort must be protected. The West is guaranteed to win the initial (traditional) military battle. What do we know about the interventions of today (3/3)

9. …so what does concerted planning and action require? (1/2) Prior to an intervention:  Be sure to have a post-conflict plan that focuses on what the people need and want.  Nationally (Iraq), regionally (Basra), locally (DK AOR).  Plan x Organisation = Timetable.  Since the post-conflict plan is about developing a country it should be done by civilian experts supported by the military.  The war plan should create the exact preconditions mentioned in the post-conflict plan – and not just the best possible.

10. In the post-conflict phase:  Continuously to improve the livelihood of the people calls for a continued civilian effort.  The military should focus on securing the civilian effort (man-to-man, not a zone defence).  Creating and up-holding security is still an important task. C C …so what does concerted planning and action require? (2/2)

11. Conclusion (1)  Beside an overall coalition post-conflict and development plan all contributing nation should develop a post-conflict plan of their own that both the military and civilian effort in their AOR should follow.  The military cannot have their own security as priority number one. It has to be the security - in its broadest sense - of the local population.  Military and civilian leaders should be measured on their ability to fulfil the conditions set-up in the post-conflict plan.  Since the civilian effort “is key” Western governments must have a vacuum-filling capacity for crises where the security situation prevents IOs, NGOs and others from operating.  For-profit companies or willing NGOs (state-sponsored) - could provide such capacities.

12. C2: What about the necessary independent, neutral and impartial humanitarian aid?  Make a clear distinction between ”core humanitarian work” (food, water, medicine, temporary housing) and other civilian efforts (schools, housing, demining) They might also be humanitarian but accept that an enemy will see the NGOs as Western “end-state enablers”.  Allow only the Red Cross and its affiliates to use WHITE colours.  Create a global value around “the WHITE efforts” and be careful with the definition of these.