1. CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS John Randall Registrar General for Scotland INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY SCOTLAND LECTURE SCOTLAND’S POPULATION 30 October 2002

2. OUTLINE OF TALK 1OVERALL POPULATION CHANGE 2MIGRATION 3BIRTHS 4DEATHS 5CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE 6MARRIAGES AND DIVORCES 7KEY ISSUES

3. projected SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION, 1861-2021

4. SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION 1981-2021

5. POPULATION CHANGE 1981-2001

6. PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE IN EU COUNTRIES 2000-2020

7. POPULATION CHANGE BY COUNCIL AREA 1981-2001

8. SCOTLAND: NATURAL CHANGE AND NET MIGRATION 1951-2001

9. SCOTLAND: NET MIGRATION 1951-2001

10. SCOTLAND: NET MIGRATION WITH REST OF UK/OVERSEAS 1951-2001

11. SCOTLAND: NET MIGRATION RATES PER 1,000 POPULATION FOR HEALTH BOARD AREAS 1991-2001

12. SCOTLAND: MIGRATION TO AND FROM THE REST OF THE UK BY AGE IN 2000

13. Projected SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED BIRTHS AND DEATHS 1951-2021

14. SCOTLAND: BIRTHS 1901-2001

15. SCOTLAND: BIRTHS PER 1,000 WOMEN BY AGE

16. TOTAL FERTILITY RATES 1951-2001

17. TOTAL FERTILITY RATES FOR EU COUNTRIES IN 2000

18. SCOTLAND: DEATHS 1901-2001

19. SCOTLAND: STILLBIRTH, PERINATAL AND INFANT DEATH RATES 1951 - 2001

20. Projected SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH 1950-2040

21. ESTIMATED EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH IN EU COUNTRIES 1999 Source: ONS, Eurostat

22. SCOTLAND: DEATHS BY SELECTED CAUSES 1991 - 2001

23. AGE-ADJUSTED MORTALITY RATES BY SELECTED CAUSE IN 2000 MALES FEMALES

24. STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATES BY COUNCIL AREA IN 2001

25. SCOTLAND: CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE 1981-2001 -18% -23% +20% +11% +29% -18% -23% +20% +11% -2% +29%

26. SCOTLAND: PROJECTED CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE 2000-2021

27. SCOTLAND: POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX IN 2001 MALESFEMALES

28. SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED AGE STRUCTURE 1901-2031 MALESFEMALES MALESFEMALES MALESFEMALES MALES FEMALES Scotland 1911 Scotland 1951 Scotland 2001 Scotland 2031

29. projected SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED DEPENDENCY RATIOS 1951-2021 Total Dependency Ratio Under 16 60 +

30. SCOTLAND: MARRIAGES 1951-2001

31. SCOTLAND: MARRIAGES BY MARITAL STATUS OF PERSONS MARRYING 1951-2001 195119611971198119912001

32. SCOTLAND: MARRIAGES BY TYPE OF CEREMONY 1951-2001

33. SCOTLAND: DIVORCES 1952-2001

34. KEY ISSUES 1DECLINING POPULATION 2GEOGRAPHICAL CHANGE 3AGEING POPULATION 4LOW FERTILITY 5RELATIVELY HIGH MORTALITY 6REDUCING MIGRATION LOSS

35. CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS John Randall Registrar General for Scotland INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY SCOTLAND LECTURE SCOTLAND’S POPULATION 30 October 2002