1. Ethnic demography and party policy: patterns of voter alignment in Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia by Christian Autengruber Andrássy University Budapest German Council on Foreign Relations

2. Bulgaria: ethnic groups and election results Ethnic GroupPopulation 2001Percentage 2001 Bulgarians6,655,21083.94 Turks746,6649.42 Roma370,9084.68 Others156,1191.97 Total7,928,901100.00 Political party: Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) (Turkish) (Member of Liberal International) Results in parliamentary elections: 1990: 6.0 %1997: 7.6 % 1991: 7.5 %2001: 7.5 % 1994: 4.7 %2004: 12.8 % Governmental participation (coalition government or support for minority government): 1991- 1992, 1992, 1994, 1997, 2001-2005, 2005-] Volatility av. (general) 27.71% Volatility av. (DPS) 2.52%

3. Romania: ethnic groups and election results Ethnic GroupPopulation 2002 Percentage 2002 Romanians19,001,72188.2 Hungarians1,434,3776,6 Roma535,2502.5 Others709,6262.9 Total21,680,974100.00 Political party: Democratic Alliance of Hungarians of Romania (RMDSZ) (Hungarian) (Observer status in the European People‘s Party | EPP) Results in parliamentary elections (chamber of deputies): 1990: 7.2%2000: 6.8% 1992: 7.5%2004: 6.2% 1996: 6.6% Governmental participation (coalition government or support for minority government):1996-2000, 2000-2004, 2004- Volatility av. (general) (1990- 2000) 34.197% Volatility av. (RMDSZ) 0.5%

4. Slovakia: ethnic groups and election results Ethnic GroupPopulation 2002 Percentage 2002 Slovak4,614,85485.8 Hungarians520,5289.7 Roma89,9201.7 Others154,1532.8 Total5,379,455100.00 Political party: Hungarian Coalition Party (MKP) (Hungarian) (Member of the European People‘s Party | EPP) Results in parliamentary elections: 1992: 7.4%2002: 11.2% 1994: 10.2%2006: 11.7% 1998: 9.1% Governmental participation (coalition government or support for minority government): 1998- 2002, 2002-2006 Volatility av. (general) 28,85% Volatility av. (MKP) 1,63%

5. Ethnic demography and party policy: patterns of voter alignment in Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia dominant national parliaments fractionalisation in parliaments and governmental participation electoral systems recent trend: ethnic differences in voter participation exclusionary mechanisms in the transition period and/or in the 80s Unresolved minority issues or minority situation challenged by other (radical) political actors

7. Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia: number of effective parties/format Bulgaria Av. number of effective parties 1990-20013,46 Romania Av. number of effective parties 1990-20003,41 Slovakia Av. number of effective parties 1990-20024,4