1. The Future of Food – Production and Security
David Castle
Chair of Innovation in the Life Sciences

2. Key Messages Demands on agriculture are mounting
Agriculture is going to be increasingly technically complex
Productivity gains are not the sole issue
Responses to challenges have to be systematic and multi-level
Well-integrated policies are needed
Close(r) partnerships between government, academe and private sector are needed to mobilise knowledge within the UK and beyond

3. The Food Security Problem
Who is affected and how:
~ 1 billion people (macronutrient deficiency)
~ 2 billion (macro and micronutrient deficiency)
~ 1 billion (excessive caloric intake; poor diet)
Layers:
Household / community / city / regional / national / global
Dynamics:
Productivity / prices / sustainability / resilience / population / climate
All food security is relative to something or some factors; there is no absolute food security.
Even in the UK shortages would occur with a transportation strike of > 3 days

4. Future of Food – Drivers of Change
Global population increase
Changes in the size and nature of per capita demand
Future governance of the food system nationally and internationally
Climate change
Competition for key resources
Changes in values and ethical stances of consumers
These are the key drivers from the report and we’ll focus on climate change (4) as it relates to (3) governance issues

5. GHG – IPCC 2007
From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The conventional estimate for global agriculture contributions to GHGs is 14%, and the next slide shows in greater detail where it all comes from.

6. GHG - 1 http://earthtrendsdelivered.org/node/161
This is the 2005 version. There is a 2000 version for comparison.
There is transportation and other uses of fuels that create the CO2 emissions so the agriculture line could be a bit bigger.

7. GHG – Industry http://earthtrendsdelivered.org/node/161
Here the issue is that the EU 27 is not innocent in total outputs although the per capita output isn’t as bad as, say, Canada or S. Arabia.

8. GHG - Agriculture http://earthtrendsdelivered.org/node/161
In this case the top emitters per capita tend to be countries with a lot of livestock but fairly low population – Australia and Argentina and Canada. The per capita outputs in the EU are fairly low – in fact lower than the total output for the EU27 but higher in the UK.

9. World Bank Development Report 2010
Good times for temperate climes but get an army.

10. FAO World Food Prices (1)
Increases and volatility – products of globalisation and also the impact of climate and trade

11. FAO World Food Prices (2)

12. FAO World Food Prices (3)

13. Former Trade – Offs …. Productivity vs. Sustainability
Quantity of Food vs. Quality of Food
Food vs. Energy
Exploit Water Resources vs. Protect Water Resources
Local vs. Global
Me / Us vs. You / Them

14. …. New Complementarities
Productivity and Sustainability
Quantity of Food and Quality of Food
Food and Energy
Exploit Water Resources and Protect Water Resources
Local and Global
Me / Us and You / Them

15. Policy Implications
“The solution is not just to produce more food, or change diets, or eliminate waste. The potential threats are so great that they cannot be met by making changes piecemeal to parts of the food system. It is essential that policy-makers address all areas at the same time.”
- The Future of Food and Farming
Innogen perspective:
Integration of natural science and engineering with social science perspectives is the only way to tackle systems-level problems like food security
Close(r) coordination of government, academe and private

16. Scotland BUT: Scottish Population 5,168,500
World Population 6,928,198,253
= %
BUT:
World-class agricultural research
World-class engineering
Literate, numerate population
Long traditions of sustainable agriculture
Strengths in livestock, crops and aquaculture
Strengths in international development
Growing interest in farm gate sales, Fife Diet (locavory)
census
07/01/11 6,928,198,253

17. Scottish Food Research Consortium
Scottish Agricultural College
University of Edinburgh
Institute of Aquaculture, Stirling
Roslin Institute
Scottish Crop Research Institute
The Macaulay Land Use Research Institute
[ … and others …. ]

18. Key Messages Demands on agriculture are mounting
Agriculture is going to be increasingly technically complex
Productivity gains are not the sole issue
Responses to challenges have to be systematic and multi-level
Well-integrated policies are needed
Close(r) partnerships between government, academe and private sector are needed to mobilise knowledge within the UK and beyond

19. Proposed Topic of Discussion
How can we create a mutually beneficial relationship between the Scottish Parliament and our emerging food security research consortium?
To identify research priorities for the natural and social sciences
To facilitate knowledge exchange between government
To use the resources of government and academe to build bridges to the private sector
To develop and mobilise Scottish expertise in agriculture and food policy within the UK and beyond