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Sustainability Freshman Inquiry Feb. 1, 2011 Jeff Fletcher See also: Daily Log PageDaily Log Page
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Logistics Extra Credit Opportunities –Collapse Critic: Terry Hunt “What (Really) Happened on Easter Island? Ecological Catastrophe and Cultural Collapse” WHEN: Wed, Feb 2, 2011, 7:30pm WHERE: PSU EB 102 MORE Read Kolbert Chapters 8, 9, 10, afterward, and chronology for this Thursday –Reading notes Mercy Corp Fieldtrip Thursday Feb. 17, 2-5pm (including transportation time), $2.50 each Signup for 1 on 1 meetings Questions about HW2: Bad/Good Apples? –Due tomorrow night Questions about Midterm?
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Complex Systems Yield Surprises Most models of systems are linear –Change in state predicted to be proportional to change in inputs Most real and complex systems are non-linear –Systems with feedback are often unpredictable –Small causes can have big effects Butterfly effect from Chaos theoryButterfly effect Chaos Demos Catastrophe theory: state is not reversible by reversing causeCatastrophe theory Logistic Equation: x t+1 = r x t (1-x t )Logistic Equation –Current financial crisis is great example Emergence
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More Socially Relevant Systems Ideas –Optimization Local vs. global Cannot fully optimize system and its subsystems at the same time –Tension between systems and subsystems Examples –You and your liver –Efficient country and local autonomy/control –Game Theory Tragedy of the Commons Prisoner’s Dilemma, Chicken Discounting Future
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Summary Another way to think about systems: –Complex systems have inherent problems that are affected by their systems characteristics Characteristics worth thinking about include: –Dynamics (equilibria, +/- feedbacks, non-linearity, emergence, discontinuous change) –Structure of relationships Open vs closed (matter, energy, entropy) System and its environment Degree of hierarchy Degree of order/disorder Hierarchy of Matter, Energy, Information
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Catastrophe: Time Machines How do we know about ancient atmosphere, temperatures, weather, fauna? Greenland Ice Cores (also Antarctic Ice Cores) –Atmosphere: trapped air bubbles –Temperature: isotopic composition of the ice (isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen different ratios depending on temperature)isotopic composition of the ice Lakebed sediment pollen samples –What kind of plants were growing at a particular location in the past Ocean and lakebed sediments for wind blown substances (e.g. dolomite)
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Chapter 5 Climate models –P. 102 climate cells –NetLogo modeling programNetLogo modeling program Heat Forcing –2.5 w/m 2 Water vapor feedback Collapse of societies based on drought –Effect of global warming on US drought conditions –Survive 3 to 5 days without water depending on temperature –Survive weeks without food
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Chapter 6 Amphibious homes (http://www.inhabitat.com/2007/08/29/amp hibian-houses-rising-water/)http://www.inhabitat.com/2007/08/29/amp hibian-houses-rising-water/ Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI) –400ppm, 450pm, 500ppm? –CO2 levels near peak for last 3.5 billion years –Temp near peak in last 420 K years
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Stabilization of CO 2 Emissions
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Stabilization Wedges
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15 Stabilization Wedges See printed descriptions of these for Group Exercise, also available at http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Resources_new_files/CMI_Wedge_Game_Jan_2007.pdf pages 4 - 8 Socolow says… “Pick any 7 of these”
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The Bad News Implementing wedges will only reduce our C0 2 EMISSIONS by 2055; it does not reduce the total CO2 in the atmosphere. TOTAL C0 2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FOR THE NEAR FUTURE NO MATTER WHAT WE DO NOW. Under the current conditions… “There is for the most part no direct cost to emitting CO2…none of Socolow’s wedges are apt to be implemented.”
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Social Engineering How do we make a wedge happen? Social Engineering is: –Policy: Legislation, regulation, standards & guidance. –Economic or Financial Stimulus: Subsidies, creating markets, pricing, grants and loans. –Technology: Encouraging inventions, adoption of new technology, implementation on a wide scale.
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Group Exercise Pick one stabilization wedge. Come up with ideas for how to make that wedge possible in the real world. A Policy designed to encourage the wedge. A Financial Stimulus to encourage the wedge. An invention or Technology that could enable the wedge. Help each other think about and refine your ideas.
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