1. Systems Science and Sustainability (Physical Systems) Oct. 13, 2008 Jeff Fletcher

2. Plan Discuss Systems and Systems Science Identify Key Systems Ideas –Use examples from Earth Systems –Focus today on natural physical systems rather than social systems –Other systems ideas are more relevant to social systems (later terms)

3. Justification Sustainability involves complex and interrelated issues –e.g., Climate change involves multiple complex systems (both natural and social) –e.g., Population control involves multiple complex systems (both natural and social) So what do we know about systems that might give us a framework for more effectively addressing Sustainability?

4. What is a System? Consider an ecosystem and economic system: what is similar? Why are they both called systems? Why might it be useful to focus on their similar “system-ness” rather than on their uniqueness?

5. Systems Comprised of: –Elements Ecosystem and Economic system examples? –Interactions or relations Ecosystem and Economic system examples? A common relation between systems is hierarchical –subsystems, supra-systems –Consider some earth systemsearth systems Other ideas –order vs. disorder, order is constraint on relations relations describe structure vs. total disorder (entropy) –system and environment boundaries define systems

6. What is Systems Science? Consider flocking birds, schooling fish, a group of friends walking together –ornithologist, ichthyologist, sociologist Mario Bunge “Stuff-free science” How is knowledge normally grouped at a University? –System Science not as abstract as math and philosophy –But more abstract (general) than individual disciplines Systems Science emphasizes theories that cut across disciplines –Game Theory, Evolution Theory, Information Theory, Network Theory, Chaos Theory, Complexity Theory, etc Interested in addressing real-world, complicated problems, from a multidisciplinary perspective

7. Key Ideas About Systems What makes a system? –Elements and Relations –order vs. disorder –system vs. environment Systems States and Dynamics –Equilibria, Stability Positive and Negative Feedbacks –Non-linear dynamics Chaos Theory, Catastrophe Theory –Emergence –Structure Open vs. Closed Matter, Energy, Information

8. Systems can be in different states For instance, temperature or composition of atmospheric system How systems change states over time is called dynamics Equilibria –Stable vs. UnstableStable vs. Unstable –Static vs. Dynamic Example of day length at equator vs. day length elsewhere –Positive and Negative Feedbacks (aphids)aphids Exponential growth example of + feedback Homeostasis example of - feedback

9. Complex Systems Yield Surprises Most models of systems are linear –Change in state predicted to be proportional to change in inputs Most real and complex systems are non-linear –Systems with feedback are often unpredictable –Small causes can have big effects Butterfly effect from Chaos theoryButterfly effect Catastrophe theory: state is not reversible by reversing causeCatastrophe theory –Current financial crisis is great example Emergence

10. Examples from Atmosphere Is CO2 effect proportional to its abundance in atmosphere? –What proportion is CO2?What proportion is CO2 Caution in reading graphs What is ppm in percent? –nitrogen (78%), oxygen (21%) and argon (.93%) = 99.93% of atmosphere! Methane also has disproportionate effectsMethane Ozone hole: example of unintended consequences and irreversibility (video)video –Big hole until 2017, then hole will start to shrink; back to 1980 level in year 2070! –Example of not reversible, directionality

11. Water Vapor in Atmosphere Also a small proportion of atmosphere Effect is being debated:being debated –What would be example of positive feedback with water vapor and global warming? –What would be example of negative feedback?

12. Earth Relatively Closed System to Matter We don’t get any more atoms here on earth –We keep reusing the Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Oxygen, and Carbon atoms we have –Nature’s RecyclingNature’s Recycling –Structure of these systems varies N critical to proteins in living organisms and abundant in atmosphere, but mostly unavailable –Depends on symbiotic relationship in plants with bacteria that “fix” nitrogen O part of H20, C02, Carbohydrates (systems interconnected) –Bodies burn carbohydrates -- Cn(H20)n –(e.g. glucose C6H12O6 + 6O2 6CO2 + 6H20 + Energy) –Plants can do this backwards with sun for E! –Similar to burning hydrocarbons (only C + H, i.e. methane=natural gas) CH4 + 202 = CO2 + 2H20 + energy C lots of it, but relatively little of it is cycling in atmosphere –Most of the carbon is stored in geologic deposits - carbonate rocks, petroleum, and coal - formed from the burial and compaction of dead organic matter on sea bottoms. The carbon in these deposits is normally released by rock weathering. –Extraction and burning of fossil fuels alters this system

13. Atmosphere is Relatively Flat Systems (not much hierarchy) Air molecules are very small compared to space between them Can treat them as all the same (Ideal Gas Assumption) –A Linear relationship holds (roughly) for earth’s atmospheric temperatures and pressures –PV = nRT –Caesar’s Last BreathLast Breath

14. Energy and Heat Earth is an open system to EnergyEnergy –ability to do work Potential, Kinetic, Heat Energy –Heat: Radiation electromagnetic waves (even through vacuum) Sunlight, microwaves, infrared –Heat: Conduction molecular vibrations in solids spreads to neighbors –Heat: Convection Molecules move in gases and liquids—collide and spread their kinetic energy

15. Entropy Second Law of Thermodynamics: –entropy (disorder) increases (or at best stays the same when cycles of work are done (for closed systems)entropy Order necessary to maintain system’s integrity –comes from energy flow into system (not closed), e.g. sunlight on earth –Overall Entropy is increasing in the Universe, but there are “back eddies” of order driven by energy input (e.g. life on earth)

16. Matter, Energy, Information Matter can be seen as acted upon by energy But understanding matter and energy relationship is not enough Information can organize matter and energy –Acorn Example

17. More Socially Relevant Systems Ideas –Optimization Local vs. global Cannot optimize system and its subsystems at the same time Tension between systems and subsystems Examples –You and your liver –Efficient country and local autonomy/control –Game Theory Tragedy of the Commons Prisoner’s Dilemma, Chicken Discounting Future Maximin, Nash Equilibrium, Pareto Optimality

18. Summary Another way to think about systems: –Complex systems have inherent problems that are affected by their systems characteristics Characteristics worth thinking about include: –Dynamics (equilibria, +/- feedbacks, non-linearity, emergence) –Structure of relationships Open vs closed (matter, energy, entrpy) Degree of hierarchy Hierarchy of Matter, energy, information