1. www.ncof.gov.uk UK National Report IGST, November 2005

2. www.ncof.gov.uk Contents Background Current status and recent progress Successes and achievements

3. www.ncof.gov.uk Background National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF) launched in March 2005 –Brings together NERC marine research agencies and the Met Office ocean forecasting groups. –Aims to improve coordination of UK ocean forecasting activities. –Research agencies engaged in NCOF are NOCS, POL, PML and ESSC. The Met Office is an established provider of operational ocean forecasts –Surface wave and storm surge forecasts for over 2 decades. –Open ocean forecasts using the Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) system for the last decade. FOAM is the main UK contribution to GODAE. –Operational forecasts for the shelf seas are also produced using a model developed by POL.

4. www.ncof.gov.uk Background New operational capability –A high resolution (5km) global Ocean Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product is being developed. Aim to take full advantage of SST products made available through GODAE. The OCCAM model –Developed at NOCS and the University of East Anglia. –High resolution modelling and data assimilation hindcast studies. –A ¼º global version of OCCAM with data assimilation has been run for a 5 year period. –A 1/12º global version is currently under development.

5. www.ncof.gov.uk Current status Input data –FOAM surface forcing: 6-hourly forcing data from the Met Office operational NWP system. Global NWP upgraded to 40km resolution from November 2005 (previously 60km). Higher frequency fluxes are available from the NWP analysis for development. –FOAM assimilation data: In situ profile data delivered in real-time over the GTS (including Argo). –Both temperature and salinity data are assimilated. –Extensive quality control checks developed for the ENACT project. Altimeter data received from CLS twice weekly. Sea-ice concentration fields produced by the Canadian Met Centre (CMC). –Assimilation of sea-ice velocity data derived from SSM/I and QuikSCAT observations trialled. In situ SST and coarse resolution (2.5º) AVHRR data. –OSTIA input data: In situ SST and GODAE High Resolution SST (GHRSST) data. –OCCAM input data: 6-hourly ECMWF wind forcing. In situ profile and altimeter data.

6. www.ncof.gov.uk Current status Data serving –FOAM operational data serving adapted to customer requirement. Data to Royal Navy via secure communications links to HORACE forecaster workbench system. Operational data via the Met Office Data and Products Distribution System by FTP in GRIB. Direct FTP feeds to customers with specific operational requirements. –FOAM / OSTIA products available for research use through ESSC / GHRSST. Model –FOAM ocean model: z-coordinate, primitive equation model. Same code as the ocean component of the Hadley Centre coupled climate models. Includes sea-ice and mixed layer models. Nested model system for high resolution regional models. –The Nucleus for European Modelling of the Oceans (NEMO): Work is underway to transition the FOAM system to use the NEMO modelling framework. Initial version expected to be ready for operational implementation in 2007. –OCCAM ocean model: z-coordinate model based on the MOM code with a free surface. Rotated grid in the N Atlantic to permit full coverage of the Arctic basin.

7. www.ncof.gov.uk Current status Data assimilation –FOAM data assimilation scheme: Developed from the Analysis Correction scheme originally devised by Lorenc et al. (1991). Deals efficiently with multiple observation types and with large numbers of observations. Sea surface height increments projected in the vertical using the Cooper and Haines scheme. –OCCAM data assimilation: In situ / altimeter data assimilation using the methods of Fox et al (2000) / Fox & Haines (2002). Assimilation products and dissemination –ESSC LAS: N Atlantic 1/9º FOAM data available on the ESSC web site http://www.nerc-essc.ac.uk/lashttp://www.nerc-essc.ac.uk/las –Real-time data and on-line archive with access using the live access server (LAS) software. –Data is freely available to registered research users. Surface fluxes used by FOAM accessible to GODAE partners. ¼º global OCCAM hindcast also available. –Real-time fields in GRIB format from some FOAM configurations available on the Met Office's DPDS: http://www.metoffice.com/research/ocean/operational/dpds/dpds_foam.html. http://www.metoffice.com/research/ocean/operational/dpds/dpds_foam.html –Prototype OSTIA products are freely available from: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/ostia.htmlhttp://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/ostia.html.

8. www.ncof.gov.uk Current status Systems –FOAM operational configurations (all 20 vertical levels): Global 1º operational suite since 1997. 1/3º Atlantic and Arctic operational since Jan 2001. 1/9º North Atlantic and 1/9º Mediterranean run daily since 2002, operational since Dec 2004. 1/3º Indian Ocean and 1/9º Arabian Sea operational since Sept 2001. 1/4º Antarctic operational since Jan 2005. –All models can be run in hindcast mode from 1997. Links with GODAE pilot projects (Argo, GHRSST) –All FOAM configurations assimilate both T and S profiles from Argo floats. Some assessments of impact have been carried out. –OSTIA products developed in response to the availability of GHRSST data. Aim to take full advantage of the global data sets. Development of OSTIA system will make GHRSST data available for FOAM. –Preliminary tests indicate a beneficial impact.

9. www.ncof.gov.uk Current status Internal metrics and intercomparison plans –FOAM is using the internal metrics agreed for the Mersea Strand-1 project. –Continued contribution to the intercomparisons initiated in Mersea Strand-1. –Automated verification system routinely produces obs - forecast statistics. Users and external metrics –Primary user of FOAM is the Royal Navy. –Data are also used by commercial operators for activities such as ship routing. –1/9º North Atlantic configuration drives the NW European shelf seas model. –Boundary data also generated for a number of other regional systems. –Development of hindcasts / forecasts of phytoplankton, zooplankton and carbon air-sea fluxes. In collaboration with NERC in the CASIX (Carbon Air-Sea Interface flux) project. –BMT developed tools for SAR, oil spill and chemical spill management. Interfaces to the FOAM and shelf seas data.

10. www.ncof.gov.uk Current status Reanalysis activities (if any) –10-year hindcast including the biological model is planned within CASIX. Global 1º, N Atlantic & Arctic 1/3º and N Atlantic 1/9º FOAM configurations 6-hourly Met Office surface fluxes, and will include physical data assimilation. Impact of assimilation of ocean colour data on the biological fields in these hindcasts will be assessed. Computer resources –Met Office supercomputing facilities: NEC SX-8 with 16 nodes. Two NEC SX-6 clusters, one with 19 nodes, the other with 15 nodes. Nodes are split between two computer halls to ensure operational levels of resilience. FOAM system currently uses about 2% of the operational share of this resource.

11. www.ncof.gov.uk Current status Consolidation phase and transition to operational systems (activities) –All FOAM configurations are fully operational. Full operational support including: –24/7 operator cover. –On-call arrangements for response to problems by scientific staff. –Backup procedures. –Use of resilient systems. –The OSTIA system is expected to transition to operational status in 2006.

12. www.ncof.gov.uk GODAE successes and achievements Assessment of the functions of the end-to-end system –FOAM system has been run operationally for many years. –Fully robust end-to-end system providing operational real-time products. –Timeliness and reliability of delivery of products a key consideration. –Activities of GODAE have led to development of several aspects of FOAM. The improvement in data handling, processing, modelling and data assimilation methodologies that arise from GODAE. –Increased availability of Argo data has led to multiple benefits for FOAM. Direct impact due to greater density of profile observations. –Improved performance of the models in sparsely observed regions. Experience that has influenced the development of QC procedures. –Opportunity for evaluation and development of QC for salinity profiles. –Improvements driven by response to issues e.g. offsets in salinity profiles.

13. www.ncof.gov.uk GODAE successes and achievements –Assimilation of altimeter SSH data within FOAM continues to be developed Issues remain in some regions. –Being addressed as a high priority. –Transition of the Met Office’s ocean modelling activities to NEMO. Increased effort being devoted to development of a European modelling system. Collaborative approach to improve the rate of progress with modelling developments. Assessment of the quality of GODAE products –Emphasis placed on making data freely available, and on participation in intercomparison exercises. Led to the establishment of the LAS at ESSC to serve data. Intercomparison efforts have provided insights into the performance of the system. –Helped to rapidly identify problems and priorities for improvements.

14. www.ncof.gov.uk GODAE successes and achievements –Argo provides unrivalled opportunities for quantitative validation of operational models. Prior to Argo on-going validation limited to T in a few well sampled regions. Significant improvements in the usability of statistics generated by the operational verification system used for FOAM. Impact of GODAE products for the different applications –Increasing demand for generation of boundary data for regional systems. In many cases for operational use in regional forecast systems. Impact of use of FOAM boundary data: –Study for both physical and biological variables in the POLCOMS-ERSEM shelf seas model system to commence shortly. –Study currently underway in the Spanish ESEOO project. –Developments shared between FOAM and the Met Office’s GloSea seasonal forecast system. Includes ocean model, data assimilation and observation QC. –The Met Office’s decadal climate prediction system, DePreSys, uses Argo and altimeter data for initialization of decadal predictions.

15. www.ncof.gov.uk GODAE successes and achievements Utility of GODAE products for the research community. –Innovative use of LAS / OpenDAP within Mersea has provided a new dissemination mechanism. Opened data access to a wider community. Generated an unprecedented level of interest in the FOAM data as a research resource. The no. of GODAE users and their level of satisfaction (user feedback). –Take up of products by commercial users / government departments has been slower than originally anticipated. –User feedback generally positive and constructive. A valuable tool for identifying priorities for improvements. The development of new application and user communities. –NCOF partnership provides a focus for outreach to new user communities. Actively pursued within NCOF. NCOF Business Development Manager appointed.

16. www.ncof.gov.uk GODAE successes and achievements –The OSTIA product is of interest for a wide variety of applications including: –Use in the Met Office NWP system. –Use in seasonal forecasting applications. The ability to assess the performance and cost effectiveness of the global ocean observing system and to propose an improved design of the global observing system. –Some assessment of the effectiveness of Argo, altimeter & GHRSST for FOAM. Focused on identifying and developing improvements to the use of the data. The contribution to the demonstration of the sustainability of the global ocean observing system. –NCOF partners are engaged in the Mersea consortium. consortium leading the establishment of a European-level marine service for GMES. –Sustainability a principal consideration.