1. National Climate Monitoring Products Andrew Watkins and John Kennedy (updated 28/4/2014)

2. Example: a current national climate monitoring product (not a WMO NCMP)

3. Typical Users and Potential Users of National Monitoring Information from WMO nations WMO Annual Statement Many contributing authors National information from WMO countries Bulletin of American Met. Society (BAMS) Annual State of the Climate report. Regional chapter Many contributing authors National information from WMO countries WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update A CCl activity Combines monitoring and prediction on seasonal scale Could be supplemented with national information from WMO countries NOAA/NCDC (and similar agencies) monthly global climate reports Regular, monthly assessment of climate conditions for the globe Uses national information from WMO countries

4. Task Team on National Climate Monitoring Products Goals: –Create a short list of National Climate Monitoring Products –That can be produced consistently by most countries –Produce precise guidance for each –Produce standard software –Devise workshops and training material –Produce guidance for reporting and interpretation

5. National Climate Monitoring Products 1.Monthly area-average mean temperature time series (max+min)/2. 2.Monthly area-average of total precipitation anomalies expressed as percentages. 3.Monthly area-average of standardised precipitation index (SPI) calculated for each station. 4.Monthly area-averaged Percent of Time T max > 90 th Percentile of Daily Maximum Temperature 5.Monthly area-averaged Percent of Time T min < 10 th Percentile of Daily Minimum Temperature 6.Significant climate and weather event relevant to the area or region.

6. Implementation Based on Expert Team for Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) code Written in ‘R’ Freely available, open source.

7. From station indices to area-averages Ordinary Kriging –A standard method from geostatistics –Easy to implement Use station data to estimate value at any point (relatively) easy to understand/teach BEST - Best Linear Unbiased Estimator

8. Example: Australian Precipitation NCMP - ~150 freely available stationsOFFICIAL

9. Monthly US temperatures (NCMP1)

10. Monthly US precip (NCMP2)

11. Warm days and cold nights (NCMP 4 and 5)

12. NCMP updates would take the form of A message

13. Dissemination Routes NCMP Focal point NHMS website RCC GCC Other NHMS WMO BAMS SotC Journalists Citizens Stakeholders XML? BUFR

14. NCMP For each NCMP for each month in the record –Monthly values –Number of stations used to calculate NCMP –Quality flag For whole series –Method/software version –Focal point –Station list –Link to additional metadata

15. NCMP monthly updates/messages Date: 2013/01 Country: UK NCMP 1 (Mean Temperature anomaly): -1.7°C Station Count: 23 Normal Period: 1971-2000 Quality Assurance Indicator: 3 = QC, homogenised network NCMP 2 (Precip): 87% Station Count: 111 Normal… NCMP 6 (Extreme events): 2 events Event 1 type: Station record minimum temperature Event 1 value: -8°C Event 1 station id: 31276 Method/software: Version 7.2.1.0.0 of R_NCMP Focal point: john.kennedy@metoffice.gov.uk

16. Some (not all!) Issues to be resolved How open/adaptable is the final tool? How to incorporate training?