1. LONG-TERM CHANGES IN CLIMATIC EXTREMES OVER SPAIN By M. Brunet, With the help of J. Sigró*, O. Saladié*, E. Aguilar* and P.D. Jones  *Climate Change Research Group, URV, Tarragona, Spain  Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK Meeting of the CCl Expert Team on Climate Monitoring 20-22 September 2006, Tarragona, Spain

2. AIM: To document changes in climatic extremes occurrence over Spain across the 20th century with a special emphasis in the recent period of strong Spanish warming (1973-2005) OUTLINE: Data and Analysis Data and Analysis Changes in temperature extremes Changes in temperature extremes Changes in precipitation extremes Changes in precipitation extremes

3. THE DATA 22 Daily maximum and minimum temperature time series recovered under the framework of the EU-funded project EMULATE ( http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/c ru/projects/emulate.html ) http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/c ru/projects/emulate.html http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/c ru/projects/emulate.html Localization Map Available versus potential data

4. THE ANALYSIS The raw temperature data were The raw temperature data were Minimised accounting for the “screen bias” Minimised accounting for the “screen bias” Quality Controlled (QCed) Quality Controlled (QCed) Homogenised on a daily basis, according to the procedures described in Homogenised on a daily basis, according to the procedures described in Brunet, M., O. Saladié, P. Jones, J. Sigró, A. Moberg, E. Aguilar, A. Walther, D. Lister, and D. López (2006), The development of a new daily adjusted temperature dataset for Spain (1850-2003), Int. J. Climatol., in press (now online on the IJC website ) Brunet, M., O. Saladié, P. Jones, J. Sigró, A. Moberg, E. Aguilar, A. Walther, D. Lister, and D. López (2006), The development of a new daily adjusted temperature dataset for Spain (1850-2003), Int. J. Climatol., in press (now online on the IJC website ) And the raw daily rainfall data were QCed and adjusted on a daily basis by using SNHT (Alexandersson and Moberg (1997) and Vincent et al. (2002) approaches And the raw daily rainfall data were QCed and adjusted on a daily basis by using SNHT (Alexandersson and Moberg (1997) and Vincent et al. (2002) approaches The adjusted daily data were converted in the following climate extreme indices and analysed both on an annual and seasonal basis : Exc. of Tmax/Tmin 2nd, 5th, 10th, 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, CSDI, WSDI Exc. of Tmax/Tmin 2nd, 5th, 10th, 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, CSDI, WSDI Fraction of precipitation above of the 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, Greatest 1- and 5-days total rainfall, SDII90, 95 and 98, CDD Fraction of precipitation above of the 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles, Greatest 1- and 5-days total rainfall, SDII90, 95 and 98, CDD The development of regional climate extreme series has been achieved by averaging daily series of indices and then adding back the base-period mean, according to the Jones and Hulme (1996) method. The development of regional climate extreme series has been achieved by averaging daily series of indices and then adding back the base-period mean, according to the Jones and Hulme (1996) method. Linear trends: Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s nonparametric method (Gilbert, 1987) Linear trends: Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s nonparametric method (Gilbert, 1987) PCA in S mode with the correlation matrix on a monthly scale and retaining those PCs exceeding the 1 threshold of Kaiser’s rule and the inspection of the scree plots. The resulting PCs have been subjected to Varimax rotation PCA in S mode with the correlation matrix on a monthly scale and retaining those PCs exceeding the 1 threshold of Kaiser’s rule and the inspection of the scree plots. The resulting PCs have been subjected to Varimax rotation

5. EXPLORING TRENDS AND CHANGES IN SOME SELECTED TEMPERATURE EXTREMES INDICES DURING THE 20TH CENTURY AND THE RECENT PERIOD OF FORCED WARMING OVER SPAIN (1973-2005)

6. Changes in percentile based temperature indices (TX/TN2p, 5p, 10p, 90p, 95p and 98p) on annual basis and in no. of days

7. Comparing trends among indices and periods (in ºC/decade) Indices1901-2003 1973- 2005 TX2p-0.23***-0.70*** TX5p-0.51***-1.21*** TX10p-0.85***-2.04*** TX90p0.83***3.11*** TX95p0.54***1.78*** TX98p0.28***0.68** TN2p-0.09+-1.15*** TN5p-0.26**-1.84*** TN10p0.51***-2.70*** TN90p0.59***3.74*** TN95p0.32***2.52*** TN98p0.16***1.34*** Long-term Spanish warming was driven by highest reductions (increases) of extremely cold (warm) days than for increases (reductions) of extremely warm (cold) nights Slight shift in this pattern during 1973- 2005: Larger increases of warm nights and days than reductions in cold nights and days

8. Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmax lower percentiles indices

9. Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmax upper percentiles indices

10. Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmin upper percentiles indices

11. Seasonal changes in daily temperature extremes: Tmin lower percentiles indices

12. Spatial patterns for some temperature extreme indices: Number of very extremely colds days Tmax<2p. Trends in days/decade for 1901- 2005 and 1973-2005. Bold (italic) indicates significance at 1% (5%) confidence level.-0.24/-0.65-0.21/-0.61 -0.13/-0.85

13. Number of warm days (daily TX > 90p) 0.82/2.980.81/2.97 0.74/2.85

14. Number of very warm nights TN > 95p 0.41/3.500.44/2.73 0.20/1.70

15. Annual changes in the duration of warm and cold spells (WSDI and CSDI in n. days/decade)

16. EXPLORING TRENDS AND CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION EXTREMES OCCURRENCE

17. Annual changes of very (R>95p) and very extremely wets (R>98p) days ( in mm/decade)

18. Seasonal changes in the fraction of precipitation above of the 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles ( in %/decade)

19. Changes in the greatest 1- and 5-days total rainfall (trends in mm/decade)

20. Seasonal changes in daily rainfall intensity above the 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles (SDII)

21. Annual and seasonal changes in the no. of consecutive dry days (CDD)

22. THANKS!! ANY QUESTIONS?