1. Recession, Retrenchment and Recovery State Higher Education Funding & Student Financial Aid Sponsored by the Lumina Foundation for Education SHEEO Professional Development Conference August 2005

2. The Problem 5 recessions in 30 years Higher education resources stagnate or decline while enrollment increases

3. National Trends since 1980 FTE enrollment in public institutions has grown by more than 40% since 1980. Enrollment growth since 2001 has already outstripped that of each of the previous two decades. + 11.8% + 6.2% + 8.5% Source: SHEEO SHEF Educational Appropriations per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1980-2004, Constant 2004 Dollars Adjusted by SHEEO HECA

4. The Complication 2001 - Not just another recession Serious questions about the values of our society and the strength of our commitment to educational opportunity.” David Breneman 2002

5. The Opportunity As the economy improves, it is now time to plan for the next recession Symposium on Financing of Higher Education April 2004

6. Project Partners State Higher Education Executive Officers National Association of State Student Aid Programs Center for the Study of Education Policy – Illinois State University

7. Project Goal To identify and disseminate successful state-level strategies and policy tools to protect students’ access to postsecondary education

8. Project Methodology 1. Economic & Fiscal Analysis – higher ed appropriations, financial aid expenditures & financial access 2. Survey of SHEEOs & NASSGAP Members 3. Interviews with policy leaders in selected states

9. Project Deliverables Final report Summary of analyses Recommended strategies and policy options State profiles Database Literature review and other study materials

10. Recession To what extent was funding restored to higher education after the four previous recessions? Similarities and differences among states Student financial aid trends Financial access across recessions Purchasing power of states’ grant programs

11. Data Set State Support: Grapevine Student Financial Aid: Annual NASSGAP Reports Enrollment: NCES Tuition & Fees: Washington HECB GDP & GSP: BEA Family Income: CPS CPI: BLS

12. Economic Cycles, Higher Ed Approps & Student Aid Preliminary Analysis

13. Economic Cycles, Higher Ed Approps & Student Aid Preliminary Analysis

14. Economic Cycles, Higher Ed Approps & Student Aid Preliminary Analysis Recessions

15. Comparison of 1979-2003 Percent Changes in Total Appropriations to Percent Changes in Total State Student Aid Note: GA, LA, NC, & NV are not listed in order to make the graph more readable Differences among states? Change in Approps & Aid Illustration Only

16. Note: GA, LA, & NC are not listed in order to make the graph more readable Comparison of 1979- 2003 Percent Changes in Total State Student Aid to Percent Changes in Average Four-Year Public Tuition Differences among states? Change in Tuition & Aid Illustration Only

17. Keeping Up with the State Economy? Higher Ed Approps - Washington Preliminary Analysis Recessions

18. Keeping Up with the State Economy? Higher Ed Approps – New York Preliminary Analysis Recessions

19. Investing in Students? Aid & Approps - Illinois Preliminary Analysis Recessions

20. Balancing Tuition and Aid? Access-Cost Indicator Balancing tuition & student aid Policies that states influence Public 2 and 4 Year Institutions Average Tuition & Fees – Aid per FTE Median Family Income

21. Balancing Tuition and Aid? Midwest States Preliminary Analysis Recessions

22. Balancing Tuition and Aid? Enrollment Growth States Enrollment Data from SHEEO SHEF 2005 Figure 4 Preliminary Analysis Recessions

23. Balancing Tuition and Aid? High State Support States Preliminary Analysis Recessions

24. Survey Objectives Assess Recession Impact state higher education and student aid policies and priorities Identify Successful Strategies to maintain financial access through future recessions.

25. What’s important in the state? Preliminary Analysis

26. Changed priorities for higher ed? Preliminary Analysis

27. Where should new funds go? Preliminary Analysis

28. What student aid program and policy changes have been made? Changes in application deadlines Changes in family contribution calc Changes in income limits Changes in length of eligibility Access versus choice

29. What strategies have been developed for financial access? Partnerships with universities and K-12 in an information service to encourage access to higher education Use of proceeds from College Savings Plans for student loans Increased emphasis on high school preparation

30. Recovery What long-term strategies have states developed to maintain financial access through economic cycles? Preparation for economic downturns Potential for states working together Effect of economic factors on student aid policies and decisions