1. Counting the costs of the 2005 Amazon drought: a preliminary assessment Mandar Trivedi 1, Anderson, L 2 ; Queiroz, J 3 ; Aragao, L 4 ; Meir, P 5 ; Marengo, J 6 ; Young, C 3 ; Mitchell, A 1 1 Global Canopy Programme, 2 University of Oxford, 3 Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 4 Exeter University, 5 University of Edinburgh, 6 CPTEC- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais ©Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra Earth System Science, 2010 Edinburgh

2. Counting the costs of the 2005 Amazon drought: a preliminary assessment Mandar Trivedi 1, Anderson, L 2 ; Queiroz, J 3 ; Aragao, L 4 ; Meir, P 5 ; Marengo, J 6 ; Young, C 3 ; Mitchell, A 1 1 Global Canopy Programme, 2 University of Oxford, 3 Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 4 Exeter University, 5 University of Edinburgh, 6 CPTEC- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais ©Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra Earth System Science, 2010 Edinburgh

3. Outline of talk Background of project Context of 2005 drought Impacts on socio-ecological system REDD+: opportunity for mitigation-adaptation

4. Background Valuing Rainforests as Eco-utilities Capacity-building: Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) PI: Patrick Meir, U. Edinburgh Future risks: Deforestation and climate change Current vulnerability: Dry season impacts important to socio-ecological system Mitigation-adaptation: REDD+

5. Drought impacts in general 1997-98 El Niño: global impacts Amazonian drought resistance/resilience –Roots access deep water (Nepstad et al. 2007; Meir et al. 2009) –‘Green-up’ (Saleska et al. 2007) –High tree mortality in 2005 (Phillips et al. 2009) “One-two-punch”: –2002-03 El Niño –2005 Atlantic warming with dry season rainfall reduction Zeng et al. (ERL, 2008)

6. 2005 Amazon drought El Niño: eastern Amazonia 2005: southwestern Amazonia El Niño: –Pacific influence –typically wet season 2005: –Atlantic influence –dry season Zeng et al. (ERL, 2008)

7. Impacts on aspects of the socio-ecological system Fire and forest function Transport: flights Health: waterborne diseases, pulmonary disease Agriculture Fisheries

9. Fires More than twice as frequent as the average over previous 7 years (Zeng et al. 2008) Fire leakage: –Human ignition sources (pasture clearance) –Close to forest edges –Dry forest more likely to burn

10. Fires More than twice as frequent as the average over previous 7 years (Zeng et al. 2008) Fire leakage: –Human ignition sources (pasture clearance) –Close to forest edges –Dry forest more likely to burn

11. Acre

12. Acre State

13. Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)

14. Transport (flights) Smoke from fires affected visibility

15. Flights

16. Transport (river) Photo: Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra

17. Carbon Tree mortality in plots, Acre (Phillips et al., 2009) Forest & pasture burnt area (Shimabukuro et al., 2009) Multiplied by biomass loss (Kaufman et al., 1998) Converted to C loss Acre State Dead trees & burnt standing forest in Acre: 2.4 TgC

18. Health Hospital admissions: –Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do SUS (SIH/SUS) Waterborne diseases: –typhoid fever, cholera and diarrhoea Pulmonary diseases: –asthma, bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI)

19. Waterborne disease Costs of hospital treatment, Acre

20. Pulmonary disease Costs of hospital treatment, Acre State

21. Agriculture Annual censuses of permanent and temporary crops Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)

22. Agriculture

23. Extractive fisheries © AP

24. Extractive fisheries Major livelihood assets of ribeirinho Major source of protein Data from IBAMA (Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources Losses in four states: BRL$ 13.3 m Aquaculture unaffected

25. Extractive fisheries

28. Summary Large costs associated with drought: –Crops, especially manioc (staple crop) –Fires/forest function (large carbon emissions) –Extractive fisheries but not aquaculture –Health –Transport (flights)

29. Summary Impact on poor communities hard to quantify Lack of data: –non-marketed goods (crops & fish) –self-treated diseases –river transport - underpins economy –school closures –livestock losses –hydropower

30. Baka people, Cameroon. Source: Helveta Incentives to change behaviour & conserve forests Community-based monitoring Maintain local knowledge: –ecosystem services –weather –wellbeing Mitigation-Adaptation opportunity REDD+

31. Thank you © L. Anderson Funded by Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme