1. 19 September 2013 James Cockayne United Nations University Beating the ‘Crime Trap’: what can we do about the feedback loop between fragility and organized crime?

2. What is fragility? ‘Fragility’ is defined by the OECD as the absence of the capacity to carry out basic governance functions and develop mutually constructive relations with society. By 2015, 50% of the world’s poor will live in fragile states. In 2011, fragile states hosted 77% of children that do not attend primary school, 70% of infant deaths, 65% of those without access to safe water, and 60% of the world’s starving.

3. What is the relationship between fragility and organized crime? Fragility often generates criminal rents, which armed groups and clandestine networks can strategically exploit. Fragility can be, in that sense, criminogenic.

4. Where does conflict fit? There is no direct correlation between crime and conflict onset, intensity or duration – or even between crime and violence. Other variables mediate the relationship: -the nature of the economic rents available and -the strategies of those competing to govern those rents.

5. Is organized crime an inevitable aspect of transition out of fragility, which we just have to accept? No. 1.The pax mafioso is not a sustainable peace. And illicit growth is not sustainable development. 2.Organized crime creates a ‘crime trap’ that retards sustainable development. Surplus capital is privatized, not reinvested.

6. Looking ahead: the growing political power of organized crime Urbanization, climate change and youth bulges  Fragile cities  Armed local groups  Transnational illicit economies  Informal economic, social and political power  Influence over formal politics  Skewed democratic politics  Increased fragility…

7. What should we be doing differently? Take the political power of organized crime seriously. Fragile states are often in a protection competition with criminal groups. So we should strengthen fragile states’ protection systems: not only their judicial and security systems (eg through JRR or an international trust fund) but also their social protection arrangements. To do that, we may need to harness criminal groups’ social capital to the state, by making them partners in service delivery. When can we deal with such groups?

8. Do no crime Does our emphasis on decentralization make life easier for organized crime? Does our focus on market liberalization lead to crony capitalism? Does our rush to elections amplify the political power of criminal groups?

9. @James_Cockayne www.unu.edu