1. AreaProfiler2 Education TWRI 2013 population projections, what a difference a year makes! Chris Stephens TWRI November 2014 Population projections

2. AreaProfiler2 The world population is projected, to be in the region of 11 billion by the end of the Century, up over 50% from today. The United Kingdom and England, in particular, may not be immune from the impact of this on our population numbers and consequently on the environment. Source: Bradshaw, C.J.A. and Brook, B.W. (2014) Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (October 2014). General Comments (1) Population projections

3. AreaProfiler2 England is almost certain to see significant population increase. For every 1% increase this represents a population growth of around 500,000. For every 2% increase this represents a new city the size of Birmingham. General Comments (2) Population projections

4. AreaProfiler2 1) Usually Resident Population. 2) Short-term Migrants. 3) A Population Estimate. 4) A Population Projection. 5) A Population Forecast. Some Definitions Population projections

5. AreaProfiler2 We use the Co-hort survival method. However, unlike ONS which, in their projections, constrain the sum of the districts to the England total, TWRI starts with local authority, produces the projection and aggregates to the Region. We produce a variety of scenarios, including Natural Change, Internal migration only. We do use a variety of weightings. Method used Population projections

6. AreaProfiler2 Table 1: England Projections Population projections Source and base year ONSTWRI Year200820102012 2013 200851,459.5 201052,198.252,234.0 201252,954.053,106.553,493.7 201353,332.053,563.053,843.653,910.853,865.8 201754,860.255,340.855,414.555,564.955,515.5 202256,822.557,428.357,337.857,503.257,465.1 202758,696.259,349.759,124.059,252.159,312.8 203260,396.261,087.960,723.960,794.961,043.8 203761,938.862,730.662,166.062,185.062,663.7 203862,235.763,056.662,440.662,971.4 Mid-year England residential population in '000's.

7. AreaProfiler2 England Projections (2) Population projections

8. AreaProfiler2 Besides understanding natural change and migration patterns, one of the aims of this analysis is to decide how we should project forward from 2013, for the different change elements. For example, should we expect birth rates to go up, to go down or roughly be the same? Since we use the past to project our view of the future we need to look at the past data, presented in a meaningful sense. TWRI: Projecting from 2013 Population projections

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13. AreaProfiler2 Table 2: Comparison of ONS & TWRI results Population projections Area Originator Projection Base Year Projected Year Source/ Model GatesheadNorth EastEngland ONS2012-MYE100 ONS20122037ONS106 116 TWRI20122037Nat. Ch.98102105 TWRI20122037Int. only9897105 TWRI20122037All Mig.103115118 TWRI20132037Nat. Ch.9899106 TWRI20132037Int. only96 105 TWRI20132037All Mig.98104116

14. AreaProfiler2 Table 3: Female Percentage Population projections Area OriginatorBase YearYearSourceGatesheadNorth EastEngland ONS2012 MYE51.07 50.77 ONS2013 MYE50.9551.0350.74 ONS20122037Proj.50.0750.5250.17 TWRI20122037Proj.49.3050.3349.91 TWRI20132037Proj.49.8650.7050.34 TWRI20132038Proj.49.8150.6950.33

15. AreaProfiler2 We have used 2011 data, updated to 2013, to get projections, for England, North East districts and the North East to 2038. In principle, this can be done for any Region/Area in the Country. A year can make a big difference a) to the population projections for a Local Authority or Region and b) to England, it could mean an extra half a million. Conclusions (1) Population projections

16. AreaProfiler2 Examining various scenarios helps to understand the underline patterns in births, deaths and migrations. It would improve understanding if a number of neighbouring authorities got together and requested analyses for their authorities; additionally it would be substantially cheaper overall. Conclusions (2) Population projections

17. AreaProfiler2 References Population projections 1)All of the raw data, used in this presentation, can be found on the Office for National Statistics website. 2)“{i}” 28 th. October 2014 page 22. [The newspaper “{i}”.] 3)Bradshaw, C.J.A. and Brook, B.W. (2014) Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (October 2014).

18. AreaProfiler2 TWRI Web Site: www.twri.org.uk TWRI E-mail: kadhem.jallab@twri.org.uk twri@twri.org.uk Population projections