1. Leonard Barrie and Ghassem Asrar Directors of Research World Meteorological Organization Lbarrie@wmo.int or gasrar@wmo.int A Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) WWRP-WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to Sub-seasonal Prediction, UKMO, Exeter 1-3 Dec. 2010 Acknowledgement: Recent reports from G.Love (WMO Secretariat), Angus Friday(HLT), Jan Egeland (HLT)

2. OUTLINE Mandate for WCRP/WWRP collaboration on seasonal-subseasonal forecasting The origin of GFCS The scoping of GFCS by a high level intergovernmental task force (HLT) and the current state of progress. Next steps in GFCS development Some features of the evolving GFCS concept

3. A Report of the Executive Council Task Team (EC-RTT) on Research Aspects of an Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction Framework June 2009

4. Research Operations Research Operations Research A. Mix of Research & Operations Nowcasts Seasonal/Inter-annual Prediction Decadal Prediction Decadal To Century Day to Month Weather Forecasts Time Scale Dependence Of Three Different Characteristics Of Weather, Climate, Water and Environmental Prediction Activities WWRP-THORPEX, GAW Numerical Weather Prediction WCRP, GAW Climate Modelling B. Research Communities Meet Earth System Science GFCS WMO DPFS C. Core Service Delivery Mechanisms For Forecasts/Predictions

5. ~105 Participants; 39 Delegations; 5 Proxy Delegations (121 CAS Members) Incheon Korea November 2009

6. Outcome of CAS XV on Research at the Weather-Climate Interface 7.3.3 CAS requested the JSCs of the WWRP and the WCRP and also the THORPEX ICSC to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. It recommended that this is closely coordinated with the existing CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting (with centres producing long- range forecasts and regional climate centres) and with the future developments in WMO climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services called for in the High-Level Declaration of WCC-3.

7. OUTCOMES OF THE THIRD WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE – Aug. 2009 Conference statement from an Expert Segment Conference Declaration from a Hi-Level Segment recommending a GFCS to be implemented through a high level task force (HLT) Conference report and proceedings

8. CONCLUSIONS FROM THE EXPERT SEGMENT Present capabilities to provide effective climate services fall far short of meeting present and future needs There is an urgent need for much closer partnership between the providers and users of climate services Major new and strengthened research efforts are required to increase the time range and skill of climate prediction Observations are an essential component

9. Inter-governmental Meeting on GFCS 11-12 January 2010 Geneva Set the Terms of Reference for a High Level Taskforce (HLT) Established the Membership of the Taskforce based on a proposal by the WMOs Secretary- General Agreed that WMO Secretariat in Geneva will host an Inter-governmental secretariat for the HLT www.wmo.int/hlt-gfcs/

10. Composition of the Taskforce Michel Jarraud (WMO Co- chair)Michel Jarraud (WMO Co- chair) Joaquim Chissano (Mozambique)Joaquim Chissano (Mozambique) Angus Friday (Grenada)Angus Friday (Grenada) Ricard Lagos (Chile)Ricard Lagos (Chile) Khotso Mokhele (S. Africa)Khotso Mokhele (S. Africa) Cristina Narbona Ruiz (Spain)Cristina Narbona Ruiz (Spain) Qin Dahe (China)Qin Dahe (China) Jan Egeland (Norway) Co-ChairJan Egeland (Norway) Co-Chair Eugenia Kalnay (Argentina/USA)Eugenia Kalnay (Argentina/USA) Julia Martin-Lefevre (Hungary/France/USA)Julia Martin-Lefevre (Hungary/France/USA) Chiaki Mukai (Japan)Chiaki Mukai (Japan) Rajendra Singh Paroda (India)Rajendra Singh Paroda (India) Emil Salim (Indonesia)Emil Salim (Indonesia) Fiama Naomi MataAfa (Samoa)Fiama Naomi MataAfa (Samoa) Mahmoud Abu-Zied (Egypt)Mahmoud Abu-Zied (Egypt)

11. Why a FRAMEWORK for Climate Services? Important research does not move rapidly to climate services for the most vulnerable Climate services do not get the last mile to those who need them the most because there are gaps in the: –global distribution of scientists, engineers and other tertiary educated people –observation networks supporting climate services Jan Egland Co-chair HLT

12. Scope of Work of the HLT In one year do the following: Define the components of GFCS and their roles, responsibilities, and capabilities within the GFCS Clearly illustrate how GFCS will assist the integration of climate information and services into national planning, policy and programmes Develop options for governance Outline a plan for implementation Take into account the special needs of Africa, Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Least Developed Countries (LDCs), and Land-Locked Developing Countries (LLDCs);

13. STRUCTURE OF THE HLT REPORT Part I A succinct description of the current global climate services capability –The supply side Part II Discussion with a series of case studies illustrating as to why the Global Framework for Climate Services is required (Fill the gaps)– The demand side Part III This section should provide a clear vision of what the new global framework would look like – The Implementation Strategy and Options for Governance.

14. Principles Adopted In Developing The Implementation Strategy 1. 1.All countries will benefit, but priority should be given to the needs of climate-vulnerable poor countries; 2. 2.The primary focus must be greater access and use of climate information by users; 3. 3.Framework activities should address three spatial scales: global, regional and national; 4. 4.Climate information is primarily a public good and should be made widely available; 5. 5.The Framework should respect national and international data policies while encouraging global, free and open exchange of climate-relevant data; and, 6. 6.The role of the Framework should be to facilitate and strengthen and not duplicate.

15. Timeline (from 1 November 2010) 1 Nov Draft HLT Report on the web for government and expert review. 22 Nov. Review period ends 30 Nov. Final-1 version completed by the HLT secretariat 1 Dec. Final-1 version of report sent to HLT members 13-15 Dec. HLT-5 Geneva. HLT members comment on Final Report and discuss follow-up activities. 12 Jan. 2011 FINAL version of the Report completed taking into account of feedback from HLT-5. May 2010 Present to the WMO Congress (Cg 16) and to Secretary-General of the UN.

16. GFCS components

17. Global, Regional and National Levels

18. GFCS Priorities In the first four years give priority to: Agriculture Disaster risk reduction Water Health

19. The GFCS will establish: 1.A global system to routinely generate and exchange climate data and data products 2.Upgrade the climate service capacities in low-capacity countries to a baseline level 3.A governance mechanism GFCS Implementation Goals

20. Objective for 2016 A global, operational climate services system. Continuous upgrading of climate services in developing countries. User oriented creation of new services. A governance mechanism that drives Framework development.

21. Governance Option A: Intergovernmental Board

22. Governance Option B: Joint Board

23. GFCS components (Schematic from presentation of Jan Egland)

24. Research Operations Research Operations Research A. Mix of Research & Operations Nowcasts Seasonal/Inter-annual Prediction Decadal Prediction Decadal To Century Day to Month Weather Forecasts Time Scale Dependence Of Three Different Characteristics Of Weather, Climate, Water and Environmental Prediction Activities WWRP-THORPEX, GAW Numerical Weather Prediction WCRP, GAW Climate Modelling B. Research Communities Meet Earth System Science GFCS WMO DPFS C. Core Service Delivery Mechanisms For Forecasts/Predictions

25. Thank You