1. Some recent studies using Models-3 Ian Rodgers Ian.Rodgers@innogy.com Presentation to APRIL meeting London 4 th March 2003

2. Outline Why Models-3? Studies currently in progress using Models-3 framework for U.K. air quality and deposition Focus on particulates: –Particulate modelling in CMAQ –Some initial results from a validation study Conclusions and issues to resolve

3. Why Models-3? JEP wants to have good understanding of effects of power station operation on the environment –Key issues include air quality, health effects, ecosystem effects Wanted single framework to address these issues: –Multi-issue –Multi timescale (episode to annual) –Flexibility of spatial scale (local – regional – transboundary) –Adequate treatment of large elevated point sources –future proof science Models-3/CMAQ emerged from review of available models as best meeting requirements

4. Approach to development of Models-3 capability Build Models-3/CMAQ domain to include a large enough region of Europe to provide good boundary fluxes for U.K. Use nested grid capability to provide 4km grid resolution for test region in Midlands Build key inputs –Emissions –Meteorology unsolder hard wired features! Test performance of vanilla model –one atmosphere approach

5. Current studies A number of studies are currently being performed: –Validation of Models-3 wet deposition modelling –Full-year simulation of air quality and deposition for the U.K. (joint JEP/Environment Agency study) –Validation of Models-3 particulate modelling –Testing of Models-3 plume rise ad plume in grid methodologies Some illustrative results from the particulates study will be shown

6. Particulates in Models-3 CMAQ aerosols module derived from USEPA Regional Particulate Model Modal approach: PM represented by 3 lognormal modes –Nucleation mode –Accumulation mode –Coarse mode Simulates 3 integral properties of each mode: –Number concentration –Surface area concentration –Mass concentration

7. Particulates in Models-3 (2) Particulate species: –Fine: SO 4 2-, NO 3 -, NH 4 +, elemental C, liquid water, organic species (primary, anthropogenic secondary, biogenic secondary) –Coarse: soil-derived material, sea salt, unspecified anthrop. species

8. Particulates in Models-3 - dynamics Coarse mode Aitken modeAccumulation mode nucleation condensation coagulation condensation coagulation Inter-mode within-mode CCN In-cloud scavenging Primary emissions 0.1% 99.9%

9. Validation of Models-3 for atmospheric particulate concentrations Joint Environmental Programme funded study Comparison of Models-3 results with TEOM measurements from JEP monitoring stations at Cliffe, Thorney, Bottesford Initial simulation run for Winter (January) and Summer (August) condition Vanilla model parameterisation (no model tuning for particulates) Modelled values are with water removed Work in progress – example results shown for Cliffe (only site with both PM2.5 and PM10 data)

10. Cliffe monitoring site location

11. Results - Cliffe, January

12. Results - Cliffe, August

13. Cliffe – scatter plot, January

14. Cliffe – scatter plot, August

16. Discussion & requirements for further work A nested-grid implementation of Models-3 for the UK has been built & testing for AQ and deposition is under way For PM: –Generally good level of agreement –60% of 24 hr average results within a factor of 3 of measurements –Tendency to underestimate PM10 when background levels low –Peaks in ground level PM in model when bl low. –Peaks are primarily associated with long-range transport rather than local sources or groups of sources

17. The next steps Data mining of Gbytes of data generated to date Detailed testing of impact of choice of science representation for JEP company priority issues Use of Models-3 for effects assessment and case making Comparison of performance with other models Would welcome interaction with other users / potential users (Potential framework to link European-wide issues to national issues)