1. THE GLOBEC GOAL To advance our understanding of the structure and functioning of the global ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems, and its response to physical forcing so that a capability can be developed to forecast the responses of the marine ecosystem to global change.

2. GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee REGIONAL PROGRAMMES PICES- Climate Change and Carrying Capacity ICES- Cod and Climate Change Southern Ocean GLOBEC Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change RESEARCH FOCI 1 - Retrospective Analysis WG 2 - Process Studies WG 3 - Prediction and Modelling WG 4 - Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG GLOBEC I.P.O. Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, USA, UK Multinational Activities National Activities BENEFIT (S. AFRICA] NATFISH (N. AFRICA) OFCCP (Eq. Pacific) LIFECO (EC] TASC (EC)… GLOBEC STRUCTURE

3. REGIONAL PROGRAMMES Cod and Climate Change Programme (ICES-CCC) This programme investigates the effect of climate variability on cod stock fluctuations, ranging from the effects of small-scale turbulence on encounter rates between fish larvae and their prey, to large- scale effects of inter-decadal changes in wind fields on circulation and transport of heat and young fish. Cod catch at Greenland 0 100 200 300 400 500 1880190019201940196019802000 Landings in thousand tonnes 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Temperature Cod catches have followed environmental trends in recent decades. Has fishing limited the capacity of cod to respond to favourable environments?

4. REGIONAL PROGRAMMES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (PICES-CCCC) This activity develops a theoretical and mathematical framework which extends the concept of carrying capacity into the multi-species ecosystem domain. It addresses how climate change affects ecosystem structure and the productivity of key biological species at all trophic levels in the North Pacific. Shrimp Cod/ Pollock Flatfish Other 1.0 0.6 0.2 1953 1962 1971 1980 1989 1998 The community structure of the North Pacific has changed over the last decades. How is this affecting the functioning of the system?

5. REGIONAL PROGRAMMES Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC) This programme is focused on understanding how physical forces influence population dynamics and predator/ prey interactions between key species. 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Krill recruitment 10 8 6 4 2 Month Area covered with ice 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Antarctic krill has peaks of abundance on “good- ice years”. How do climate fluctuations (and thus ice cover) affect krill and its predators?

6. REGIONAL PROGRAMMES Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC) The long-range goal is to forecast how the productivity of small pelagic fish populations will be altered by climate variability and change. SPACC will involve process studies, based on comparisons of standard measurements from different ecosystems, and retrospective studies built around palaeoecological and genetic data. 100 -100 -300 -500 Pacific salmon Chilean Jack mackerel Californian sardine Japanese sardine Peruvian sardine European sardine Alaska pollock Catch (relative units) 191019301950 1970 1990 Pelagic fish globally seem to fluctuate in synchrony. What drives this patterns?

7. GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee REGIONAL PROGRAMMES PICES- Climate Change and Carrying Capacity ICES- Cod and Climate Change Southern Ocean GLOBEC Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change RESEARCH FOCI 1 - Retrospective Analysis WG 2 - Process Studies WG 3 - Prediction and Modelling WG 4 - Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG GLOBEC I.P.O. Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, USA, UK Multinational Activities National Activities BENEFIT (S. AFRICA] NATFISH (N. AFRICA) OFCCP (Eq. Pacific) LIFECO (EC] TASC (EC)… GLOBEC STRUCTURE

8. GLOBEC Focus 4 “Feedbacks from Changes in Marine Ecosystem Structure” General Objective: To co-operate with other ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial and social global change research programmes to estimate feedbacks from changes in marine ecosystem structure to the global earth system

9. GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3 Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems Working Group Goals: 1) To understand the interactions between marine coastal communities and global changes in marine ecosystems; 2) To understand the capacity of these communities to adjust to these changes; 3) To understand the consequences of these adjustments for marine ecosystems.

11. Several issues complicate study of these interactions: 1. Scale What are the scales at which marine ecosystems and coastal communities interact? What are the scales of environmental change compared with scales on which humans have the ability to change and adapt. How to move between scales when the drivers are global but the impacts local? 2. Knowledge Open” and “Closed” knowledge systems – e.g. publicly available, local knowledge, or group-based. How best to exchange and to incorporate scientific and local knowledge into decision-making? 3. Values How to assign value to ecosystem states, e.g. is an system which supports Atlantic cod inherently better than one that supports northern shrimp?

12. Source: The Newfoundland Fishery: A Descriptive Analysis Noel Roy (Memorial University) Symposium on the Efficiency of North Atlantic Fisheries; Iceland, September 12-13, 1997 http://www.ucs.mun.ca/~noelroy/NfFishery.text.html Example case study: Atlantic cod in Newfoundland The collapse of cod has been severe social disruption in Newfoundland. In addition to the social displacements, there have been changes in the ways that coastal communities use the marine ecosystems: have expanded into previously un-fished species, have expanded into new locations, are using previous fishing grounds for species other than cod. Result is potential for significant negative impacts on the marine ecosystem, and on the recovery of cod.

13. Working Group Approach Develop a review/appraisal paper on the topic “What are the impacts of marine ecosystem changes on coastal communities?”. Case studies might include: Peru and changes induced by El Nino oscillations; NW Atlantic groundfish collapses Explore “significant issues”, starting with “Scale” (a MS has been submitted) Develop models coupling marine ecosystem changes with the socio-economic system. Develop active links with other relevant programs, e.g. GECaFS, by exploring these issues for the marine ecosystems of Peru, Chile and Ecuador; or possibly the Caribbean?

14. USA Canada Mexico Peru Chile Brazil Angola Namibia South Africa Morocco Mauritania Senegal Australia New Zealand New Caledonia Japan Korea China Russia Ukraine Turkey Spain Portugal Italy Germany France UK Netherlands Denmark Norway Countries participating in GLOBEC activities at national or Regional level For more information: Contact Manuel Barange (GLOBEC Executive Officer), globec@pml.ac.uk, or Ian Perry (Focus 4 co-chair), Perryi@pac.dfo- mpo.gc.ca. www.globec.org