1. Manuel Barange, GLOBEC IPO. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK. M.barange@pml.ac.uk, www.globec.orgM.barange@pml.ac.uk www.globec.org GLOBEC, Focus 4 and SPACC…

2. GOAL: “To advance our understanding of the structure and functioning of the global ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems, and its response to physical forcing so that a capability can be developed to forecast the responses of the marine ecosystem to global change”.

3. GLOBEC’s Objectives: 1- To better understand how multiscale physical- environmental processes force large-scale changes in marine ecosystems 2- To determine the relationship between structure and dynamics in a variety of oceanic systems which typify significant components of the global ocean ecosystem 4- To determine how changing marine ecosystems will affect the global earth system by identifying and quantifying feedback mechanisms 3- To determine the impacts of global change on stock dynamics using coupled physical, chemical and biological models linked to appropriate observation systems

4. GLOBEC FOCUSES ON ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE …underpinned by the belief that understanding the role of variability in the functioning of marine ecosystems is essential to manage marine living resources.

5. Reykjavik Declaration on Responsible Fisheries in the Marine Ecosystem (FAO 2001): signed by over 100 fishing nations and committing them to undertake research in pursue of Ecosystem-Based-Fisheries-Management … YET ASPIRES TO BE POLICY RELEVANT … we will undertake to...:...identify and describe the structure, components and functioning of relevant marine ecosystems, diet composition and food webs, species interactions and predator-prey relationships, the role of habitat and the biological, physical and oceanographic factors affecting ecosystem stability and resilience (in other words: GLOBEC research);

6. USA Canada Mexico Peru Chile Brazil Angola Namibia South Africa Morocco Mauritania Senegal Australia New Zealand New Caledonia Japan Korea China Russia Ukraine Turkey Spain Portugal Italy Germany France UK Netherlands Denmark Norway Countries participating in GLOBEC activities at national, multinational or Regional level

7. GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee REGIONAL PROGRAMMES o PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity oICES-GLOBEC Cod and Climate Change oSouthern Ocean GLOBEC oSmall Pelagic fish And Climate Change (SPACC) In preparation: - Large Pelagics - Sub-Arctic Ecosystems RESEARCH FOCI o Retrospective Analysis Working Group o Process Studies WG o Prediction and Modelling WG oFeedback from Ecosystem Changes WG GLOBECInternationalProjectOffice National / Multinational Activities GLOBEC STRUCTURE

8. Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (PICES-CCCC) 1979 Shrimp Cod/ Pollock Flatfish Other 1.0 0.6 0.2 1953 1962 1971 1980 1989 1998

9. Cod and Climate Change Programme (ICES-CCC)

11. Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)

12. 16501700 17501800 1850 19001950 2 1 0 -2 Standardised Blue fin tuna numbers Ravier & Fromentin 2001: ICES J Mar Sci 58 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON OCEANIC TOP PREDATORS (CLIOTOP). Leader: P Lehodey, New Caledonia; O Maury, France

13. ECOSYSTEM STUDIES OF SUBARCTIC SEAS (ESAS). Leader: G Hunt, USA

14. Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC) The long-range goal is to forecast how the productivity of small pelagic fish populations will be altered by climate variability and change. SPACC will involve process studies, based on comparisons of standard measurements from different ecosystems, and retrospective studies built around palaeoecological and genetic data. Chairpersons : Claude Roy (France)/ Dave Checkley (USA)

15. Why SPACC? - Small pelagic fish account for 1/3 of world’s catches - Worldwide distribution - Abundant in similar environments (upwelling regions) - Major importance for the economy of developing regions - Vulnerable to decadal variability in environment What are SPACC’s challenges? - The urgency of stock assessments - Luxury science for developing countries? - Geographical distance between scientists - Lack of administrative “home” - The science itself 8% 30% 14% 10% 14% 1% 7% 15% Flounders, halibuts, soles Cods, hakes, haddocks Redfishes, basses, conge Jacks, mullets, sauries Herrings, sardines, anchovies Tunas, bonitos, billfish Mackerels, snoeks, cutlassfishes Sharks, rays, chimaeras Miscell marine fishes

16. SPACC Structure - March 2000 SPACC Executive Committee 2003 J Alheit (Germany) M Barange (UK) T Baumgartner (Mexico) L Castro (Chile) D Checkley (USA- co- Chair) R Guevara (Peru) L Motos (Spain) H Nakata (Japan) C Roy (France- co-Chair) C van der Lingen (South Africa) … to develop comparative integration activities, in support of existing field work, along four research themes:  Long term Changes in Ecosystems  Comparative Population Dynamics  Reproductive Habitat Dynamics  Economic Implications of Climate Change

17. Theme 1: Long term Changes in Ecosystems Lead: J Alheit/ T Baumgartner - SUPPORT MONITORING RESEARCH PROGRAMMES, CURATE LONG TERM TIME SERIES AND PROMOTE COMPARATIVE STUDIES. e.g. Workshop on Long-term changes in the NE and SE Pacific. Lima, Peru, May 2001. Funding: IAI-EPCOR and GLOBEC. -PROMOTE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PALEOCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND DEVELOP COMMON METHODOLOGIES. e.g. GLOBEC Paleoceanographic methodology workshop. Munich, Germany, October 2001. Funding: Local.

18. Theme 2: Comparative Population Dynamics Lead: M Barange (UK) Biomass Catches ISPR Biomass/ catches (M t) ISPR (y -1 ) 1960197019801990 0 5 10 15 B 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Japanese sardine -DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL COMPARATIVE STUDIES ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF PELAGIC FISH STOCKS. e.g. Jacobson et al. 2000. Surplus production, variability and climate change in the great sardine and anchovy fisheries. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 58: 1891-1903. Funding: SCOR and GLOBEC. -PROMOTE USE OF ENVIRONMENTAL/ CLIMATE DATA IN FISH MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES e.g. Study group on “Use on environmental indices in the management of pelagic fish populations”. South Africa, December 2001; Paris, December 2002 (GLOBEC Spec. Contr. 5 and 6). Funding: IOC

19. Theme 3: Reproductive Habitat Dynamics Lead: D. Checkley (USA) and C. Roy (France) -DEVELOPMENT OF COMMON TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE STUDY OF SPAWNING HABITATS e.g. “Use of the CUFES for mapping spawning habitats of pelagic fish”. San Sebastian, Spain, February 2000 (GLOBEC Report 14). Funding: participants and SCOR - PROMOTE COMPARATIVE STUDIES LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE WITH SPAWNING HABITAT CHANGES, AND DEVELOP MECHANISMS TO TRANSLATE THESE CHANGES INTO MANAGEMENT ACTIONS e.g. “Small pelagic fish spawning habitat dynamics and the daily egg production method” and “Characterizing and Comparing the Spawning Habitats of Small Pelagic Fish”. Concepcion, Chile. Funding: Local/ IRD/ BENEFIT/ SCOR/ participants.

20. Theme 4: Economic Implications of Climate Change. Lead: Sam Herrick/ Dale Squires (USA) -DEVELOP SCENARIO ANALYSES TO ADDRESS THE SOCIO- ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGES IN PELAGIC FISH PRODUCTION e.g. “Workshop on the economics of small pelagics and climate change, Porstmouth, UK. September 2004. Funding: NOAA, SCOR, GLOBEC

21. GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee REGIONAL PROGRAMMES PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity ICES-GLOBEC Cod and Climate Change Southern Ocean GLOBEC Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change (SPACC) In preparation: - Large Pelagics - Sub-Arctic Ecosystems RESEARCH FOCI Retrospective Analysis Working Group Process Studies WG Prediction and Modelling WG Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG GLOBECInternationalProjectOffice National / Multinational Activities GLOBEC STRUCTURE

22. GLOBEC Focus 4 Feedbacks from Changes in Marine Ecosystem Structure “To co-operate with other ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial and social global change research programmes to estimate feedbacks from changes in marine ecosystem structure to the global earth system”

23. GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3 Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems Goals: 1) To understand the interactions between marine coastal communities and global changes in marine ecosystems; 2) To understand the capacity of these communities to adjust to these changes; 3) To understand the consequences of these adjustments for marine ecosystems.

25. Climate variability Internal ecosystem dynamics Fishing Habitat degradation Pollution Exotic species, new diseases Environmental change Demographic Change Technological innovations Law and property relations Policy Change Relations of production/reproduction, Gender and ethnic relations Shifting values Change in Marine Ecosystems Change in Fishing Communities These interactions involve issues of: 1.Scale (of interaction, of adaptation, drivers vs responses…) 2.Values (of ecosystem state/ fisheries) 3.Knowledge (science versus management versus Local)

26. collapse of Atlantic cod stocks in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada CLIMATE CHANGE + OVERFISHING Case study Consequences of changes: -Severe social disruption (fishery closures, plant closures, unemployment, reduced incomes, employment volatility, outmigration, shifts in property relations and power…)

27. Policy response (ADAPTATION) : - Fishing Moratorium on cod - Downsize fleet - Income replacement measures (incl. new quotas for alternative spp) -Thus contributing to further marine ecosystem change. Social response (ADAPTATION): -Fishing effort expands spatially and ecologically -Effort intensifies on traditional grounds -Effort shifts across species, down trophic levels Low Ecosystem Resilience Some Fishers Resilience (capacity to absorb change)