1. Dr. William O’Hare O’Hare Data and Demographic Services LLC March 25, 2010

2. OUTLINE BROAD TRENDS IN RURAL AMERICA CHANGING CONTEXT OF RURAL AMERICA FOCUS ON FAMILIES AND CHILDREN REGIONAL AND RACIAL TRENDS IN RURAL AMERICA THE 2010 CENSUS COMMENTS ON COMMUNITY CHANGE

3. WHAT IS RURAL? MANY DEFINITIONS BUT NONE PERFECT (SEE ERS www.ers.usda.gov/Data/RuralDefinitionswww.ers.usda.gov/Data/RuralDefinitions for list of rural definitions) RURAL VERSUS NON-METROPOLITAN

4. RURAL AND NONMETROPOLITAN RURAL IS ANYTHING THAT IS NOT URBAN PLACES OF 2500+ POPULATION AND POPULATION DENSITY AT VERY FINE LEVEL OF GEOGRAPHY (1000 PERSONS PER SQUARE MILE) NONMETROPOLITAN IS ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF A METROPOLITAN AREA COUNTY BASED MEASURE – A COUNTY IS EITHER TOTALLY INSIDE OR OUTSIDE A METRO AREA BASED ON POPULATION SIZE AND COMMUTING PATTERNS NONMETRO USED MORE OFTEN BY RESEARCHERS BECAUSE DATA IS MORE AVAILABLE

5. Percent of National Population of Children in Rural and Nonmetro Areas Percent Rural Percent Nonmetro Under Age 52215 Under Age 182315 Total Population2316

6. Poverty Rate for Children and Elderly in Rural and Nonmetro Areas 2008 TotalRuralNonmetro Under Age 5211727 Under Age 18181522 Age 65+10 12

7. TERMINOLOGY “RURAL” = OUTSIDE METROS “URBAN” = INSIDE METROS “WHITE” = NON-HISPANIC WHITE “PRESCHOOLERS” = UNDER AGE 5/6

10. Population Change 2000-08 Location Number of Counties Population (Numbers in millions) Population change (2000-08) 20002008 Number (in millions)Percent U.S.3,141281.4304.122.78.1 Nonmetro2,05148.649.91.32.7 Metro1,090232.8254.221.49.2

12. Unemployment Rates 2007 Feb. 2009 RURAL5.19.8 URBAN4.58.7

14. CHILD POVERTY IN RURAL AMERICA

17. PERCENT OF CHILDREN UNDER AGE 6 IN DEEP POVERTY 2008

20. Blue Counties Are Rural Areas with Primary Care Shortage

22. KEY FACTS ON RURAL CHILD POVERTY Rural children have higher poverty rates than urban children The poverty rate gap between rural and urban children is growing Rural children are more likely to live in deep poverty and near-poor families Rural children are more likely to be poor for longer periods Health care is less likely to be easily available for rural children

23. HOW DO PROTECTIVE FACTORS WORK IN RURAL AMERICA? FAMILY STRUCTURE (PARENTAL COHESION) PARENTAL EDUCATION PARENTAL WORK EFFORT

25. CHANGING RURAL FAMILIES

29. CHANGING RURAL FAMILES NOW MORE RURAL KIDS IN SINGLE-PARENT FAMILIES COHABITATION MORE PREVALENT IN RURAL AREAS TEEN BIRTH RATES HIGHER IN RURAL AREAS

30. PARENTAL WORK EFFORT

31. Work Effort by Householder (Head of Household) URBANRURAL Percent worked full-time year- round7168 Percent worked less than full- time year-round2021 Percent who did not work1011

38. GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE RURAL CHILDREN ARE MORE LIKELY TO LIVE IN LOW-INCOME FAMILIES OF THOSE RECEIVING CASH PUBLIC ASSISTANCE, RURAL FAMILIES RECEIVE LESS THAN URBAN FAMILIES RURAL CHILDREN ARE MORE LIKLEY TO DEPEND ON EITC RURAL CHILDREN ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEPEND ON MEDICAID AND SCHIP

39. REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

43. Distribution of Rural Children in Poverty by Race and Region All Regions Combined Northeast Region Midwest Region South Region West Region Non-Hispanic White5988814750 Black2144351 Hispanic166101632 Asian and Pacific Islander*11*1 American Indian/Alaskan Native415216 Total100 * = rounds to zero

44. THE IMPPORTANCE OF THE 2010 DECENNIAL CENSUS FOR CHILDREN

45. UNDERCOUNT OF CHILDREN IN THE DECENNIAL CENSUS YOUNG CHILDREN HAD THE HIGHEST UNDERCOUNT RATE OF ANY AGE GROUP IN 2000 CENSUS 750,000 (4% OF TOTAL) WERE MISSED THIS IMPACTS OUR ABILITY TO PLAN THIS IMPACTS DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL FUNDS.

46. Ten Key Programs for Children Which Use Census Data for Distributing Federal Funds Name of Program FY2008 (in billions of dollars) Total $ 447.3 Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid) $ 261.1 Special education Grants to States $ 10.8 Title I Grants to Local Education Agencies $ 7.5 State Child Health Insurance Program $ 7.1 Head Start $ 5.7 Foster Care Title Iv-E $ 4.3 Child Care Mandatory and Matching Funds of the Child Care and Development Fund $ 2.9 State Grants to Improve Teacher Quality $ 2.8 Adoption Assistance $ 2.0 Child Care and Development Block grant $ 2.0

48. KEY IDEAS ABOUT COMMUNITY CHANGE COMPREHENSIVE EFFORTS – TRAITS CLUSTER SUSTAINED EFFORTS OVER TIME DATA-DRIVEN DECISION-MAKING

49. SUMMARY RURAL DISADVANTAGES ARE OFTEN SMALL, BUT THEY ARE WIDESPREAD AND THEY ACCUMULATE THERE IS A STRONG RACIAL OVERLAY TO CHILD POVERTY IN RURAL AMERICA RURAL AMERICA IS MORE OF A MOSIAC WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR THE PUBLIC TO DEVELOP A CLEAR IMAGE OF THE RURAL POOR