1. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO Casillas González Héctor F. González Lira E. Raymundo López Hernández Ruben OCTOBER 20 – 22, 2004 18 th International EMME/2 Users Conference Mexico City, Mexico

2. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. I. Introduction II. Study Overview III. Corridor Analysis IV. Models of Analysis V. Demand Results VI. Demand Forecast VII. Conclusions I. Introduction II. Study Overview III. Corridor Analysis IV. Models of Analysis V. Demand Results VI. Demand Forecast VII. Conclusions Index

3. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. Corridor Characteristics: Cancún is located in the Municipality of Bénito Juárez in Quintana Roo, Mexico. Tourism is the principal economic activity Population of 492,258 inhab. in 1,644 km². Blvd. Kukulkán is on the east side of the city and communicate the city with the Tourist Zone. Zone of Study Introduction

4. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. Objectives: Estimate the number of vehicles using the bridges of Bojórquez, Bonfil y Nichupté. Estimate social benefits and fees income. Methodology Results: Transit corridor analysis Demand Characterization Transit and fees income estimation of each Bridge. Economic y financial evaluation Study Overview Análisis de la Demanda. Información Documental. Información de Campo. Oferta. Demanda. VOT Modelo de selección modal. Pronóstico de aforos e ingresos. Evaluación Financiera Evaluación Económica Demand Analysis Documental Information Field Information Supply Demand VOT Mode selection model. Transit and fees income estimation Financial Evaluation Economic Evaluation

5. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. Bojórquez Bridge: Length: 0.80 km Investment: 181 - 487 million of pesos and 2 lanes per direction Bonfil Bridge: Length: 9.6 km Investment: 945 - 1,576 million of pesos and 2 lanes per direction Nichupté Bridge: Length: 7.2 km Investment: 752 - 1,253 million of pesos and 2 lanes per direction Location of the three Bridges Study Overview

6. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. Point of study Las Perlas, weekday (Automobiles) According to the observed demand, the zones between Plaza Caracol and Plaza Kukulkán, bring the biggest rate of trips. Corridor Analysis Point of study Nizuc, weekday (Automobiles) At this point, the trips are between the Central Market (Ejido Bonfil) and the tourist zone, almost was identify trips between the airport and the Riviera Maya.

7. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. Models of Analysis In this project we just analyze the highway mode, for this reason we dont use a modal assignment model, we only use a path selection. The choice is obtained when we apply fees to each project. The selection of the potential users of the bridges are estimate with a Logit multinomial probabilistic model, which utility functions on path choice are estimated through declared preference survey. The percentage of potential users of the project on each fee level is estimated with the next equation: where: P(i)= Probability of use the route i Ui = Result of the utility of the function from the selection i In this case, we need to estimate the utility function of each selection, with or without project. That means estimate the fees and delays of each option.

8. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. Demand Results. Bojórquez Bridge 830 veh-peak period on week day and 1,112 vehicles in weekend (20,119 vehicles AADT ) Fees of $3 pesos for cars and $5 pesos for trucks Used by through traffic in Punta Cancún (67% of the actual demand) Its works like a bypass of Punta Cancun

9. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. Demand Results. Bonfil Bridge 512 veh-peak period on week day and 774 in weekend (2,482 vehicles AADT) Fees of $24 pesos for cars and $27 pesos per trucks Increase the capacity of trips to the tourist zone. The principal change of volume is in the south with an average of 70% and 7% in the north access.

10. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. Demand Results. Nichupté Bridge 1,003 veh-peak period on week day and 1,521 in weekend (4,670 vehicles AADT) Fees of $24 pesos for cars and $28 pesos for trucks The construction of this bridge means a reduction of 55% of the transit in the north of the Blvd. Kukulcán Also means a reduction of 17% of the transit y the south access

11. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. Demand Forecast

12. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. With the results of the transit assignment, the best fees and the results of the economic and financial evaluation for each bridge, we could say that the Bojórquez bridge is the best investment. Its important to keep watching the transit in the tourist zone for determinate the moment that the Nichupté Bridge will be available, beginning with two lanes with the possibility of widening to four lanes. Its not recommendable the construction of the Bonfil Bridge at least in the next 30 years. Conclusions