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DCLG Household Projections

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Presentation on theme: "DCLG Household Projections"— Presentation transcript:

1 DCLG Household Projections
Bob Garland Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division

2 Comparison of the 1996 and 2003 based projections
England Average annual growth Av annual growth 96 Av annual growth 03 Increase in rate of growth Private Hhold Pop 134,500 218,700 63% Households 152,600 209,100 37% One person hholds 108,100 149,500 38%

3 Increased household growth results from higher population projections but households increasing faster than population due falling average household size and more one person households and increased longevity.

4 Regional Growth

5 Household Growth by Region (2003 based)
Table A: Household projections Numbers of households (000) Average annual change Percentage increase 2003 2026 2003 ~ 2026 North East 1,088 1,211 5 11% North West 2,874 3,378 22 18% Yorkshire & the Humber 2,104 2,511 18 19% East Midlands 1,782 2,230 19 25% West Midlands 2,193 2,602 East 2,286 2,926 28 28% London 3,093 3,926 36 27% South East 3,348 4,184 South West 2,137 2,745 26 England 20,904 25,713 209 23%

6 Components of Change Components of Household Growth England 2003 Based
Components of change (%): adult population level 58 age distribution 20 marital status distribution -3 household membership rates remainder (cross products) 6

7 Drivers of Growth

8 Household Projections
23% growth in household numbers. 209 additional households per year. 31% of household growth is due to international migration. One person households increasing fastest.

9 Regional Perspective Married couple households are not declining as quickly in the East Midlands, East or South West. All regions are experiencing a similar pattern of growth.

10 One person households

11 Migration Slightly more than half the population growth in England is directly due to international migration. In the long run migration becomes an increasingly important aspect of population growth as the number of births is projected to fall. Based on annual net growth from natural increase and net international migration; excludes long term natural increase associated with the immigrant population

12 Keep Migration in Perspective
In England, net migration accounts for 65,000 of the 209,000 (31%) annual average household growth (2003 based) despite accounting for 54 per cent of population growth.

13 Migration and the Regions

14 Recent house building and the household projections

15 Input Data Sources

16 Increasing Population
The latest population projection from the ONS is higher than the one used to produce 2003-based the household projections. 2004-based household projections will reflect this increased growth. In both projections population growth is due to natural change and migration in roughly equal parts.

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