1. DCLG Household Projections
Bob Garland
Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division

2. Comparison of the 1996 and 2003 based projections
England
Average annual growth
Av annual growth 96
Av annual growth 03
Increase in rate of growth
Private Hhold Pop
134,500
218,700
63%
Households
152,600
209,100
37%
One person hholds
108,100
149,500
38%

3. Increased household growth results from higher population projections but households increasing faster than population due falling average household size and more one person households and increased longevity.

4. Regional Growth

5. Household Growth by Region (2003 based)
Table A: Household projections
Numbers of households (000)
Average annual change
Percentage increase
2003
2026
2003 ~ 2026
North East
1,088
1,211 5
11%
North West
2,874
3,378 22
18%
Yorkshire & the Humber
2,104
2,511 18
19%
East Midlands
1,782
2,230 19
25%
West Midlands
2,193
2,602
East
2,286
2,926 28
28%
London
3,093
3,926 36
27%
South East
3,348
4,184
South West
2,137
2,745 26
England
20,904
25,713
209
23%

6. Components of Change Components of Household Growth England 2003 Based
Components of change (%):
adult population level 58
age distribution 20
marital status distribution -3
household membership rates
remainder (cross products) 6

7. Drivers of Growth

8. Household Projections
23% growth in household numbers.
209 additional households per year.
31% of household growth is due to international migration.
One person households increasing fastest.

9. Regional Perspective
Married couple households are not declining as quickly in the East Midlands, East or South West.
All regions are experiencing a similar pattern of growth.

10. One person households

11. Migration
Slightly more than half the population growth in England is directly due to international migration.
In the long run migration becomes an increasingly important aspect of population growth as the number of births is projected to fall.
Based on annual net growth from natural increase and net international migration; excludes long term natural increase associated with the immigrant population

12. Keep Migration in Perspective
In England, net migration accounts for 65,000 of the 209,000 (31%) annual average household growth (2003 based) despite accounting for 54 per cent of population growth.

13. Migration and the Regions

14. Recent house building and the household projections

15. Input Data Sources

16. Increasing Population
The latest population projection from the ONS is higher than the one used to produce 2003-based the household projections.
2004-based household projections will reflect this increased growth.
In both projections population growth is due to natural change and migration in roughly equal parts.