Presentation on theme: "DCLG Household Projections"— Presentation transcript:
1 DCLG Household Projections Bob GarlandHousing Markets and Planning Analysis Division
2 Comparison of the 1996 and 2003 based projections EnglandAverage annual growthAv annual growth 96Av annual growth 03Increase in rate of growthPrivate Hhold Pop134,500218,70063%Households152,600209,10037%One person hholds108,100149,50038%
3 Increased household growth results from higher population projections but households increasing faster than population due falling average household size and more one person households and increased longevity.
5 Household Growth by Region (2003 based) Table A: Household projectionsNumbers of households (000)Average annual changePercentage increase200320262003 ~ 2026North East1,0881,211511%North West2,8743,3782218%Yorkshire & the Humber2,1042,5111819%East Midlands1,7822,2301925%West Midlands2,1932,602East2,2862,9262828%London3,0933,9263627%South East3,3484,184South West2,1372,74526England20,90425,71320923%
6 Components of Change Components of Household Growth England 2003 Based Components of change (%):adult population level58age distribution20marital status distribution-3household membership ratesremainder (cross products)6
11 MigrationSlightly more than half the population growth in England is directly due to international migration.In the long run migration becomes an increasingly important aspect of population growth as the number of births is projected to fall.Based on annual net growth from natural increase and net international migration; excludes long term natural increase associated with the immigrant population
12 Keep Migration in Perspective In England, net migration accounts for 65,000 of the 209,000 (31%) annual average household growth (2003 based) despite accounting for 54 per cent of population growth.
16 Increasing Population The latest population projection from the ONS is higher than the one used to produce 2003-based the household projections.2004-based household projections will reflect this increased growth.In both projections population growth is due to natural change and migration in roughly equal parts.