1. Unpacking inequalities in Europe and Central Asia
Ben Slay, UNDP senior advisor
8 May 2015

2. Global inequality discourse: Two dominant threads
“Northern”: OECD countries (Picketty, Stiglitz)
Impact of trade, financial globalization, demographics,
Strong links to social inclusion
Good data, can focus on wealth as well as income
“Southern”: Developing country focus (Humanity Divided)
Coverage of social protection/services
Progressive taxes
Role of women

3. Neither focus is quite right for our region
Post-socialist legacies left well established systems of social protection, services . . .
But with growing gaps?
Position of women better than in other developing regions . . .
But is progress being lost?
Inequalities in our region do seem to be important
Apparent in national consultations
Maybe because people aren’t used to them?

4. Income inequality: What do the regional data show?
Two common stories:
Transition economies: “Paradise lost”
Very low pre-1990 inequalities
Huge post-1990 increases
Result: (very) high levels of inequalities
Turkey: “Traditional developing country profile”
High levels of income inequality . . .
. . . That are coming down
Do the stories hold up?
Transition economies: Yes, but:
Choice of base year matters a lot
Lots of national differences
Turkey: Yes—but inequalities are still high
Caveat: Data are imperfect, inconsistent

5. Western CIS, South Caucasus: Do they fit the profile?
Income inequality: Gini coefficients
* 2010, or most recent year. Source: POVCALNET (internationally comparable data).

6. Turkey, Western Balkans: Do they fit the profile?
Income inequality: Gini coefficients
* 2010, or most recent year. Source: POVCALNET (internationally comparable data).

7. Central Asia: Does it fit the profile?
Income inequality: Gini coefficients
Turkmenistan?
Uzbekistan?
* 2010, or most recent year. Source: POVCALNET (internationally comparable data).

8. Low levels of/reductions in income inequality can help reduce poverty . . .
Belarus
Moldova
Poverty threshold: PPP$4.30/day. Source: POVCALNET (internationally comparable data).

9. . . . While high/rising income inequalities can make poverty worse
FYR Macedonia
Georgia
Poverty threshold: PPP$4.30/day. Source: POVCALNET (internationally comparable data).

10. Income inequality: Some initial conclusions
Serious data questions
Inequality concerns seem particularly pressing in:
FYR Macedonia
Georgia
Albania
Turkey
Other countries seem to have been more successful
Statistical anomalies?
Or do policies matter?
Pro-poor growth often goes with reductions in inequality
Need to go beyond income inequality

11. Beyond income inequalities: UNDP’s Inequality-adjusted HDI
Human development losses due to inequalities in per-capita GNI, education, life expectancy
Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office (2012 data).

12. Maybe what matters is exclusion? (Especially from labour markets)
World Bank data, UNDP calculations (unweighted averages).

13. . . . Disaggregated by vulnerability criteria (ethnicity)?
Sources: ILO, national statistical offices, UNDP/EU/World Bank Roma vulnerability database data.

14. Other “new poor” (“newly vulnerable”)—Migrant households
Kyrgyzstan: Income poverty rates
Ratios of remittance inflows to GDP (2013)
Sources: National statistical offices, World Bank, IMF, CBR data; UNDP estimates.

15. Data review: Some conclusions
Better data needed for many inequality indicators
Especially for non-income inequalities
But long lags affect internationally comparable income inequality data
Reducing income inequalities matters for reducing poverty
Need to go beyond income inequalities
Post-2015 indicators to underpin the SDGs

16. Dialog on inequalities “takeaways”
Pluses:
Strong interest from national, regional partners
Empirically: income poverty and inequality move together in our programme countries
Minuses:
Significant measurement issues:
Data gaps (quality, quantity)
Low awareness of new indicators (e.g., Palma ratios)
How to measure non-income inequalities?
Except for gender programming, not many “inequality projects”
Conflation of inequality, poverty?

17. From “Dialog on Inequalities” to “Inequalities RHDR”
Better connect region with global inequality narratives—and vice-versa
Strengthen regional, national programming in inequalities
Build a UN(DP) regional inequalities “brand”

18. “Process, not just a publication”
RHDR to serve as platform for:
Project development
Dissemination of inequalities-related content, knowledge
Strong use of social media, innovation opportunities
Inequality-related SDGs (especially targets, indicators) to be cross-cutting thread
Country case studies included
Co-financed by COs, IRH
Expressions of interest received to date from 8 COs

19. Programming questions
“Stand alone” versus “mainstreaming” inequality programming?
Gender parallel
When does the “inequality lens” add value?
Socio-economic versus spatial inequalities
When is area-based/regional/local development programming about reducing (spatial) inequalities?
Do national data support programming to address inequalities?
Could this be new programming area?
How strong is government interest?
How to best link to SDGs?

20. Thanks!