1.  Leveraging National Communications to integrate climate policy into development plans in Europe and CIS  Sub-regional workshop for GEF Focal Points  Europe and CIS  Dubrovnik, Croatia, 11-13 February 2009

2. Outline of Presentation  Summary of some key climate threats in the region  National Communications role  Integrating climate change into development priorities  Priorities in National Communications for GEF programming

3. UNDP-GEF Adaptation 2 Food Security Poverty Now 2020-50s 2100s 5% rainfall decline in southern belt of ECIS per decade 40% of irrigation water demand not met in average year; increases to 70% in dry years and drought season (in south Macedonia) Livelihoods affected by more droughts and crop failures Significant decline in annual discharge and runoff formation across the region Irrigation will begin to fail in Central Asia; spring yield will decrease at least 27% Regional and sub- national disparities and increased rural poverty Surface water resources in most basins of Kazakhstan will decrease 9-29% Production of water- intensive crops (e.g. cotton) in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will fail Poor population impacted by more frequent climate- related disasters Water Climate change poses serious risks in the region

4. UNDP-GEF Adaptation 3 Sea level Economy Now 2020-50s 2100s Dramatic glacier retreats already observed in Pamir, Ala- Too and Caucasus Frequency and intensity of floods on Danube increased Rise in Black Sea level from previous century is detected at a rate of 2.5mm/yr ~3-8% GDP loss in South East Europe and Central Asia In Tajikistan alone, thousands of glaciers will disappear by 2050 Glacial lake outbursts will intensify flood-related disasters Absolute increment of sea level rise on the Georgian coast of Black will be 0.2m Economic losses from floods, landslides and droughts will increase across the region Contribution to runoff formation will fall 15-30% as result of snow melt in parts of Uzbekistan Fergana Valley foothills will become intensive mudslide zones Low-lying coastal areas of the Black Sea and Adriatic inundated ~ 20% Economic losses from damage to coastal infrastructure and settlements Disasters Climate change poses serious risks in the region

5.  Historic mortality from floods highest in Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan  Economic losses from flooding as proportion of GDP historically highest in Turkey, Western Kazakhstan, parts of Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Serbia, Belarus, Romania, Albania, and Macedonia Human and economic losses

6.  Armenia: water reserves in snow have decreased 5-10%  Azerbaijan: seasonal snow line has risen from 1,300-1,500m to 1,800- 2,000m; subsequently, water resources will be reduced by 5.7–7.7km 3  Macedonia: average discharge will decrease by 10-20% in next 50 years  Kazakhstan: surface water resources in most basins will fall 9-29% in 50-100 years  Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan: water resources must dramatically increase to sustain current level of productivity of cotton and cereals (up to 70%).  Albania: total runoff formation already down 10%; will decrease 30% by mid-century Water Stress

7. Initial National Communications was important in bringing attention to CC issues in countries, but had some limitations: Focused on Convention reporting – strategic opportunities for feeding into national development not fully exploited Focused on Convention reporting – strategic opportunities for feeding into national development not fully exploited Conducted by technical experts, but limited participation of stakeholders from public and private sectors Conducted by technical experts, but limited participation of stakeholders from public and private sectors Investigation academic in nature – limited relevance to policy decision (for instance for climate risk management ) Investigation academic in nature – limited relevance to policy decision (for instance for climate risk management )

8.  Second National Communications (SNC):  A second opportunity  Transforming the NC from a mere reporting process to a strategic and policy support tool   Producing the SNC document not the end point

9.  SNC should be a vehicle to facilitate: –Institutionalization of climate change responses –Production of knowledge and information on the basis of national priorities –Mechanism for a policy dialogue to address climate change concerns –Basis for mainstreaming climate change into national/sectoral planning processes and development priorities

10.  Develop a strategy to address policy relevant issues in the different SNC components  Establish and consolidate a system for institutional coordination and political buy-in  Promote policy-oriented studies to expand the traditional technical assessment  Guide technical teams to leverage the results of mitigation and Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) studies for project formulation and implementation, as well as fundraising Making SNC more policy-relevant

11. Objective of SNC should seek to facilitate policy changes Outcomes of the SNC process to highlight the policy strategies in the short and long terms SNC process should identify opportunities for strengthening technical and institutional capacities SNC process should identify opportunities for strengthening technical and institutional capacities Ways to facilitate the integration of the NC process into government agendas – sustainability and appropriation

12. Scope of work Scope of current or future NCs may need to be revisited to ensure linkage with development planning Ensuring consistency of V&A and mitigation with development needs (i.e., SNC to focus on assessments conducive to influence decision making) Ensuring consistency of V&A and mitigation with development needs (i.e., SNC to focus on assessments conducive to influence decision making) Ensuring scope of V&A and mitigation studies addresses policy questions Ensuring scope of V&A and mitigation studies addresses policy questions Assessing practices and trends that enhance vulnerability and increase GHG emissions Assessing practices and trends that enhance vulnerability and increase GHG emissions Conversely, studies may be driven by policy changes needs to address both development and adaptation/mitigation Conversely, studies may be driven by policy changes needs to address both development and adaptation/mitigation

13. Engaging Stakeholders Design a strategy for stakeholders engagement through the SNC process and beyond Involve and seek inputs from relevant government institutions Involve and seek inputs from relevant government institutions Consultations initiated in SNC proposals to be enhanced and consolidated Consultations initiated in SNC proposals to be enhanced and consolidated Stakeholders process to be documented, including follow-up needed to keep adequate engagement Stakeholders process to be documented, including follow-up needed to keep adequate engagement Strategy for results appropriation, with recommendations to facilitate adoption of results Strategy for results appropriation, with recommendations to facilitate adoption of results Emphasizing socio-economics assessments as a key element of adaptation and mitigation assessments Emphasizing socio-economics assessments as a key element of adaptation and mitigation assessments

14. UNDP-GEF Adaptation 13 1. National Communications: process and outputs V&A and mitigation priorities identified 2. Adaptation Policy Framework and mitigation plans Strategies and Projects Identified 3. Adaptation Financing, carbon financing Adaptation and mitigation policies adopted Leveraging National Communications - Summary Integration into national/sectoral plans Partnerships, Projects (GEF, bilateral, multilateral) National Budgeting Stakeholders, institutional coordination Monitoring and evaluation

15. Discussions  What role can GEF Focal Points play in linking priorities reflected in National Communications with GEF programming at the country level?