1. Participation Voting Campaign Activity –Volunteer –Contribute money (corporations are people) Contacting officials Group Activity Protest

2. Participation What trends in each mode? How does US compare? Which mode has greatest effect?

3. Participation Trends –Voting is way down in most nations But in US, we elect lots… –Campaign activity is flat 3% volunteer –Donating flat in US (about 10%) –Activity of the wealthiest But trying to persuade others is way

4. % who tried to influence how others vote Is this meaningful participation?

5. Participation Trends –Contacting officials up (?) People say they will, but do they When? How? (email?) –Group activity (30%) Dalton says it’s up, Putman it’s down Does Internet act as social group?

6. Participation Trends –Protesting up? Most sign petitions, up most places Boycott up US, GB Demonstrate, way up in FR & Germany –17% in US Occupy down/flat –2-4% in US Strike down/flat

7. Participation Again, what has most consequences for what government does? Which is easiest? What differences between how wealthy and others participate?

8. Voter Turnout Who votes, who doesn’t? Why? Why a decline? Is there a decline? What proposals to increase turnout?

9. Voter Turnout in US Is there a turnout problem? In US about 55% vote in presidential elections –up in 2004 & 2008 (+60%), down in 2012 (58%) about 35-40% vote in congressional elections Washington state above the national average

10. US Turnout Compared US turnout low compared to other est. democracies Other democracies also show decline

11. US Turnout Compared 1950s vs. 1990s /2000 Few est. democracies have turnout increasing

12. Voter Turnout In the US a steady decline (maybe) turnout 10% lower 2000 than 1960 turnout much lower now than 1900 –why ?? today, a lower % of eligible voters participate –far  more eligible voters now

13. Turnout Trend 1948-2012 Large change in VAP vs. VEP turnout 58% VEP 2012 Pool of eligible voters smaller vs. voting age population M. McDonald data

14. Long term view

15. Voter Turnout 1896 90%  drop to 62% in 1904 –voter registration laws –Jim Crow laws 1916 61%  drop to 42% in 1920 –suffrage to women –size of eligible electorate doubled 1936 59%  drop to 51% in 1948 –WWII 1968 60%  drop to 52% 1972 –suffrage granted to 18 y/olds

16. Voter Turnout in US 1960 = 63% in pres (47% in 1962) 1964 = 62% in pres (48% in 1966) 1968 = 61% in pres (47% in 1970) 1984 = 54% in pres (36% in 1986) 1988 = 50% in pres (36% in 1990) 1996 = 49% in pres (36% in 1998) 2000 = 51% in pres (34% in 2002)

17. Voter Turnout in US Why a decline since 1890s? Old numbers from a different context –high mobilization labor intensive parties –limited pool of eligible voters –fraud –more mobilization then vs. now?

18. Voter Turnout in US Why a decline 1960s - 2000? Demise of parties –campaigns now capital intensive (ads) –less direct contacts w/ voters –candidate centered politics –“party building” efforts (soft money) for GOTV had little effect

19. Voter Turnout in US Why a decline? Demise of competition –Fewer US House races competitive vs. 1960s even with demise of one-party south –Fewer state legislative seats competitive –Campaign activity concentrated in rare, competitive districts (and states)

20. Voter Turnout in US Why a decline? Demise of Competition Effects of competition –10% more competitive presidential race in state = 1% more turnout ie: Ohio (2%) vs (22%) = 2% more –2 initiatives = 1% more –Senate race, Gov race...

21. Voter Turnout in US Why increase in 2004 & (less so) 2008? Were the stakes higher? –2000 election result? 2004 6% increase over 2000 –some new issue? –candidate effects?

22. Voter Turnout in US Why a decline? Regulatory barriers –30 day advance registration –vote only on day of election –must vote at specific location –limits on use of mail, absentee ballots –Prohibition on felons voting

24. Barriers to voting Lowest –ND, OR, UT, IA, ME, VT, NH, CA Highest –MS, AL, KY, VA, MD, FL, TX, LA

25. Voter Turnout in US Why a decline Regulator barriers –What effects of Election Day Registration (EDR)? Several states 4.5% increase in presidential elections 2.0% increase in midterm

26. Voter Turnout in US Election Day Registration –CA*, CO, CT, DC, ID, IL*, IA, ME, MT, MN, NH, WI, WY (ND does not require registration) –In GA 2014...42,000 registrations not processed (close Senate race) –In WA proposals to have shorter pre-reg. period but not EDR

27. Voter Turnout in US Election Day Registration –What effect on electorate? makes voting more convenient –Who will take advantage? ???

28. Voter Turnout in US Election Day Registration –Proponents: Democratic Party –Opponents: County Auditors ‘Bureaucratic nightmare’ –requires more staff –vote provisional ballot? –check if registered/voted in other county

29. Voter Turnout Felon disenfranchisement –Two states do not ban from voting (Maine and Vermont) –Some states restore after release / probation (ex Felons) –Some states make ban permanent (unless govt. approves individual’s restoration)

30. Voter Turnout Felon Laws –Adoption corresponds with extension of rights to Black Americans –Before 1860, 12 of 21 states w/ laws –By 1890s, 38 of 45 had laws type of crimes covered changed

31. Voter Turnout Effects of Felon laws –There might not be a decline in turnout –Levels of criminal punishment in US way, way up –More felons than ever (Why??) 9% of US adult population (2010) –14% in FL, GA 2% in 1966

32. Lots more not eligible

33. Voter Turnout in the US Why a decline Regulatory Barriers –Some are falling –Easier to register now, easier to vote by mail –EDR explains variation in an election, not since 1960.

34. Voter Turnout in US Maybe no decline? Yes, lower after 1960s - 2000 –Decline mostly outside of south Low turnout rate of young (post 1972) accounts for 1/4 of decline –and criminal ‘justice’ industry VAP vs. VEP....

35. Turnout 2004, 2008 Change VEP » 20082004 –White 66.1%63.8%-1.1 –Black 65.2%60.3%+4.9 –Hispanic49.9%47.2%+2.7 –Asian47.0%44.7%+2.4 –All63.6%63.8%-0.2

36. Turnout by Age Not quite linear Young voters lowest turnout Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008 charles franklin data

37. Turnout by Age Not quite linear Young voters lowest turnout Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008 charles franklin data

38. Turnout by Age Youngest cohort largest segment of the electorate Greatest under- representation in voting

39. Turnout by Age Under-representation? Youth vote by party –200051% Dem –200454% Dem –200866% Dem –201260% Dem

40. Decline or not... Many, most don’t vote In many nations, clear decline Where are the voters going? –Cohort vs. lifecycle effects

41. Voter Turnout So why don’t young people vote? –efficacy –life experiences re: politics –campaigns don’t care about them? ‘Rock to Vote’, “Vote or Die”? youth vote way up in place where competitive races (stakes are higher) youth vote 10% nationally in 2004

42. Voter Turnout So, who votes? Education Age (old people rule) –Cohort and life cycle effects Partisans (not independents) Income Efficacy –OK, so what drives efficacy

43. Voter Turnout When & Why do they vote? Regular voters –older people and well educated Peripheral voters – younger people and less-educated

44. Voter turnout Competitive elections mobilize larger effect on young & less educated Presidential race 2004 –person living in uncompetitive state w/ 10th grade ed. had.46 prob. of voting –person in Ohio w/ 10th grade ed.55 prob.

45. Voter Turnout Midterm election (2002) –33 y/o person in state w/ no US Senate race =.37 prob. of voting –33 y/o in state w/ most competitive Senate race.77 prob. of voting –for 62 y.o., high prob. of voting anyway

46. Voter Turnout in US What difference would it make if turnout was higher? –Composition of electorate change? EDR, Vote by Mail, etc. seem to increase turnout but not change electorate Competitive elections seem to increase turnout of everyone –greater effect on young, less educated

47. Voter Turnout in US What happens if higher turnout –and low participating groups show up? Young people Less affluent Ex-felons

48. Voter Turnout Uggen & Manza –Because felons are drawn from ranks of poor and racial minorities, laws take votes from Dems. –Estimate that 2000 Pres. election would have been reversed –Estimate that Dems would have controlled US Senate after 1984 if not for these laws Thus changed composition of US Courts