1. Effects of Regional Housing Dynamics on Older Suburbs Thomas Bier Center for Housing Research and Policy Cleveland State University American Planning Association “Tuesdays at APA ” May 8, 2007

2. The same dynamics that undermined cities have begun to undermine suburbs The same dynamics that undermined cities have begun to undermine suburbs (It was only a matter of time)

3. Emergence of suburban decline in the 1990s Lucy and Phillips. 2000. Confronting Suburban Decline Lucy and Phillips. 2000. Confronting Suburban Decline Puentes and Orfield. 2002. Valuing America’s First Suburbs: Puentes and Orfield. 2002. Valuing America’s First Suburbs: A Policy Agenda for Older Suburbs in the Midwest A Policy Agenda for Older Suburbs in the Midwest Hudnut. 2003. Halfway to Everywhere: A Portrait of America’s First-Tier Suburbs Hudnut. 2003. Halfway to Everywhere: A Portrait of America’s First-Tier Suburbs Puentes and Warren. 2006. One-Fifth of America: Puentes and Warren. 2006. One-Fifth of America: A Comprehensive Guide to America’s First Suburbs A Comprehensive Guide to America’s First Suburbs

4. Coalitions Chicago: South Suburban Mayors and Managers Association Chicago: South Suburban Mayors and Managers Association Detroit: Michigan Suburbs Alliance Detroit: Michigan Suburbs Alliance Kansas City: First Suburbs Coalition Kansas City: First Suburbs Coalition Minneapolis: North Metro Mayors Association Minneapolis: North Metro Mayors Association Virginia First Cities Coalition Virginia First Cities Coalition Wisconsin Alliance of Cities Wisconsin Alliance of Cities National League of Cities’ First-Tier Suburbs Council National League of Cities’ First-Tier Suburbs Council Ohio First Suburbs Consortium Ohio First Suburbs Consortium

5. First Suburbs Consortium of Northeast Ohio First meeting 1996, 3 suburbs; now 17 First meeting 1996, 3 suburbs; now 17 Suburbs adjacent to or near the city of Cleveland Suburbs adjacent to or near the city of Cleveland Range in population from 600 to 85,000 – total 488,000 (35% of county) Range in population from 600 to 85,000 – total 488,000 (35% of county)

7. First Suburbs relative to rest of county’s suburbs First Suburbs relative to rest of county’s suburbs Older housing (median 60 years) and lower value (35% lower) Older housing (median 60 years) and lower value (35% lower) Built-out Built-out Dense Dense Deteriorating Deteriorating Declining population Declining population More minorities More minorities More foreclosures More foreclosures Lower income (25% lower) Lower income (25% lower) Less tax-base growth Less tax-base growth

21. Goal of First Suburbs: change public policies to Invest in older communities Invest in older communities Revitalize traditional neighborhoods and tax base Revitalize traditional neighborhoods and tax base Enhance quality of life and economic stability Enhance quality of life and economic stability Preserve farmland and open space Preserve farmland and open space Protect the environment Protect the environment

22. Activities – “Inside game/Outside game” (Rusk) Inside game Inside game New housing New housing

30. Activities – “Inside Game/Outside Game” (Rusk) Inside Game Inside Game New housing New housing Commercial revitalization Commercial revitalization

35. Activities – “Inside Game/Outside Game” (Rusk) Inside Game Inside Game New housing New housing Commercial revitalization Commercial revitalization Code enforcement Code enforcement Nuisance abatement Nuisance abatement Cooperation Cooperation Juvenile Court Juvenile Court Anti-poaching agreements Anti-poaching agreements Tax sharing Tax sharing Joint purchasing Joint purchasing Joint safety services Joint safety services

36. But the Inside Game is not enough. First Suburbs lack resources to succeed on their own. They need an Outside Game to engage other jurisdictions and state government in solutions Outside game Outside game Can’t be just a Cleveland-area thing Can’t be just a Cleveland-area thing Ohio First Suburbs Consortium (www.firstsuburbs.org) Ohio First Suburbs Consortium (www.firstsuburbs.org)www.firstsuburbs.org Suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton Suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton

37. Regional Dynamics

38. The same dynamics that undermined cities have begun to undermine suburbs ( It was only a matter of time ) Economic success drives development and movement Economic success drives development and movement Most moves are up to higher-value real estate Most moves are up to higher-value real estate Most new real estate is built at region’s edge; thus most “up” options are farther out Most new real estate is built at region’s edge; thus most “up” options are farther out Old buildings lose market appeal, become obsolete, lose value, are abandoned Old buildings lose market appeal, become obsolete, lose value, are abandoned Decline spreads – eventually to suburbs Decline spreads – eventually to suburbs Policy reinforces Policy reinforces

39. Regional Housing Dynamics Buildings Buildings New New Mostly “Out” Mostly “Out” Abandoned Abandoned Mostly “In” Mostly “In” Movement High Value High Value Mostly “Out” Mostly “Out” Low Value Low Value Mostly “In” Mostly “In” Policy Supports new out Ignores middle Feds target low/mod slum and blight Home Rule: you’re on your own

40. As a society, we treat buildings the same way we treat cars and refrigerators: build them, use them, use the life out of them – then junk them. Buildings, neighborhoods and cities are just as expendable as cars and refrigerators. It just takes longer. What is our society’s advice to people in old places that are weakening, deteriorating? “Move, get out, move to a better place.” Most of those who can, do.

41. Decline and abandonment are inevitable when regional new housing exceeds household growth

42. Relationship Between Regional New Housing and Household Growth, 1990-2000 Buffalo Pittsburgh St. Louis Detroit Cleveland Baltimore Columbus Chicago Portland Oakland Phoenix Boston RATIO: NEW TO HOUSEHOLDS * 3.9 2.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 CITY HOUSEHOLD CHANGE -10.1% -6.3 -10.8 -10.1 -4.6 -6.7 17.3 3.6 19.5 4.3 25.9 4.8 CITY NEW % OF AREA 7.8% 3.2 1.7 2.0 4.5 1.6 40.6 9.5 11.9 5.7 24.8 2.8 *Ratio of regional housing building permits to regional household growth

43. Suburban decline raises fundamental issues (What’s supposed to happen when a place gets old?) Home Rule: Old places are singularly responsible for their condition (society hails moving from old to new but not assisting old to renew) Home Rule: Old places are singularly responsible for their condition (society hails moving from old to new but not assisting old to renew) Free market: Don’t intrude Free market: Don’t intrude Planning: Local, fine; regional, no Planning: Local, fine; regional, no

44. For big cities and small suburbs, solutions require Shared responsibility for all places Shared responsibility for all places Market intrusion (when construction exceeds growth): growth management and/or regional tax sharing Market intrusion (when construction exceeds growth): growth management and/or regional tax sharing Regional planning Regional planning But such solutions are “un-American” – they go against “property rights”, “the free market”, “survival of the fittest”, “local control”

45. Suburban decline is “good” news: creates pressure for fundamental policy change; decline (and angst) will not go away Small, “powerless” suburbs are likely to organize coalitions and to recognize how existing policies undermine them; big cities think “We can turn this around” Small, “powerless” suburbs are likely to organize coalitions and to recognize how existing policies undermine them; big cities think “We can turn this around”

46. Mayors see government cooperation as salvation They're promoting new roles for county Tuesday, April 24, 2007 Thomas OttPlain Dealer Reporter Fearing that the region is on the brink of disaster, nine suburban mayors will push for a new form of Cuyahoga County government that they say could save money and respond faster to the county's economic problems.

47. It was only a matter of time