1. Risk Analysis in Aquaculture Workshop for OIE National Focal Points for Aquatic Animals, Byblos, Lebanon, 12–14 August 2013 Edgar Brun OIE Collaborating Centre on Epidemiology and Risk Assessment for Aquatic Animal Diseases Atlantic Veterinary College, Canada

2. Outline Definitions Why do risk analysis Basic principals Constraints

3. What is risk analysis An objective, systematic, standardized and defensible method of assessing the likelihood of negative consequences occurring due to a proposed action or activity and the likely magnitude of those consequences Or… a model building process aiming to identify, describe, manage and communicate a risk a tool for science-based decision-making (manage alternatives) a tool for how to deal logically with uncertainty and incomplete knowledge

4. What is «risk» Risk in a daily language the chance of something going wrong any hazardous entity likely to cause injury, damage, or loss is subjective (relative to our mind and culture) is “invented” to understand and cope with dangers and uncertainties of life

8. Risk in epidemiology Risk is the probability that an event will occur with a (generally) unfavorable outcome, in a specified time interval (Last, 2000)

9. Risk in Risk Analysis means the likelihood of the occurrence and the likely magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of an adverse event or effect to animal or human health Risk = probability x consequence Aquatic Animal Health Code (2012)

10. Event tree/Biological pathway A “dissection” of the “risk-question” into a graphic diagram (model) showing a step by step pathway of all physical and biological events required for the hazard to occur. Each step (event) can be dedicated a likelihood of occurring

11. Exampel; The biological pathway 1. Smolts descending the home river (N) 2. Smolts infected when leaving home river 3. Smolts swimming towards a neighbouring river 4. Smolts swimming up a neighbouring river 5. Ascending smolts still infected when swimming up (n) Estimate the risk of one or more salmon smolt deriving from a Gyrodactylus salaris infected watercourse, to ascend neighbouring rivers still carrying viable parasites Photo TAMo

12. “Total uncertainty” “Lack of certainty” exists whenever your knowledge or understanding of an event, consequence, or likelihood is inadequate or incomplete. Uncertainty ●due to limited knowledge ●imprecise measurements ●can be reduced Variability ●normal variation ●can be measured and explained ●can not be reduced Lack of differentiation may lead to inadequate or incomplete knowledge or understanding of the results

13. Uncertainties are described by distributions Depicted in a xy-diagrams; x= any value for the variable y = probability for occurring Describes the likelihood of a given outcome of a stochastic variable (a stochastic process)

14. Sensitivity analysis Testing the relative importance of the different variables (steps) in the pathway - how and to what extent the various variables and their related uncertainty in a model affects the final result

15. Why do we need to do risk analysis in aquaculture Risk to farmed aquatic animals ●Introduction of pathogens through import (OIE/WTO) ●Where to establish new sites ●Awareness of hazards (new/most important) ●Identify populations/areas most at risk ●Identify farms most likely to be infected ●Welfare Risk to the environment ●Pathogen exchange between farmed and wild ●Genetic impact of escapees ●Invasion of non-naïve species ●Pollution from aquaculture or to aquaculture

16. Why do we need to do risk analysis in aquaculture Risk to humans ●Food safety and public health (Codex) ●Social risks  Socio-economic (employment)  Reputation  Welfare FAO (2008): Understanding and applying risk analysis in aquaculture

17. Basic principals

18. Four basic components in risk analysis Hazard identification Risk assessment Risk management Risk communication

19. Hazard identification The process of identifying which hazard(s) that could potentially produce which adverse consequences ●close collaboration with risk assessors and mangers for a precise definition of the task to be assessed (face to face meetings)

20. Hazard identification (characterization) What do we know about the disease ●Agent characteristics, clinics, treatment, transmission etc. Diagnostic tests Distribution in exporting country Any surveillance in exporting country How sure are we of the situation in our own country/farm

21. Risk assessment the process of evaluating ●the likelihood that a defined hazard will be introduced, established, and spread ●estimating the biological and economic consequences

22. Risk assessment (4 steps) 1. Release assessment – determine the likelihood that a hazard will be introduced (transferred) through a planned action (e.g. with a consignment) 2. Exposure assessment –determine the likelihood that a transferred hazard will be able to establish (spread) in its new environment

23. For release and exposure we need a pathway 1. Smolts descending the home river (N) 2. Smolts infected when leaving home river 3. Smolts swimming towards a neighbouring river 4. Smolts swimming up a neighbouring river 5. Ascending smolts still infected when swimming up (n) 6. Viable parasites able to infect susceptible species

24. Risk assessment 3. Consequence assessment – quantify the possible biological and economic damage the established hazard may cause 4. Risk estimation – integrating the estimation of the probability of release and exposure events with the results of the consequence assessment to produce an estimate of the overall risk of the event occurring.

25. Qualitative vs Quantitative RA Qualitative RA (risk estimates in ”high”, “moderate” ”little”, ”negligible ”) ●Often a first choice ●Quick, low requirement for data ●Low level of precision, no measure for uncertainty Quantitative RA (risk estimates in numbers) ●Deterministic- model: using fixed (average) values  quicker, moderate quantitative data need  low precision for uncertainty ●Probabilistic-model: using distributions for uncertainty and variability  good estimates for uncertainty, sensitivity analysis  high demand for resources (time, money and competence)

26. Qualitative risk estimates Rivers N Mean 95%CI Maxp(0) River 1 13,0000.10-1 591.9 % 65,0000.50-4 1176.5 % 130,0001.00-7 1769.2 % 200,0001.50-10 2565.7 % River 2 13,00000-0 0100.00 % 65,0000.00020-0 299.98 % 130,0000.00030-0 299.97 % 200,0000.00040-0 499.97 %

27. Qualitative risk estimates P(infected smolts ascending the river>0)=0.31

28. Quantitative risk estimates (Risk matrix)

29. Risk management The handling of the results from the risk assessment and implementing necessary means to reduce either the likelihood of realization (introduction and spreading) and/or the consequences of it ensure a balance between a country's desire to minimise the likelihood or frequency of disease incursions and their consequences and its desire to import commodities and fulfil its obligations under international trade agreements (OIE).

30. Risk management Deals with policy related to risk ●Acceptable level of risk ●Recognition of unacceptable risk and that some "risky" actions cannot be managed and therefore should not be permitted under any circumstance ●Application of the precautionary approach A risk assessment may give more than one result Alternative risk management measures achieving the required level of protection are equally acceptable Benefits ?

31. Risk communication A risk analysis strives for objectivity, but contains elements of subjectivity transparency is essential.

32. Risk communication A continuous open and transparent process where all stakeholders are consulted, results incl assumptions and uncertainty, and management measures communicated. Should begin at the start of the risk analysis process and continue throughout Peer review of the risk analysis is an essential component of risk communication for obtaining a scientific critique aimed at ensuring that the data, information, methods and assumptions are the best available

33. risk communication Hazard identification Risk assessment: -release -exposure -consequence -risk estimation Risk management: -risk estimation -option evaluation -implementation -monitoring & review What can go wrong? How likely? How serious? What can we do about it?

34. From the Aquatic Animal Health Code OIE has its focus on trade (IRA), but no a single method of import risk assessment has proven applicable in all situations The process needs to include an evaluation of the aquatic animal health service, zoning and regionalization, and surveillance systems in place in the exporting country

35. Constraints in risk analysis Technical ●Resources (competence, time, money…) ●Communication (internal/external) Scientific ●Definition of the question ●Data Usefulness ●Credibility (is the question answered, is the model correct) Management ●How to handle lack of information ●Competence to act Communicative ●Terminology ●Transparency ●Results  Assumptions – limitations imbedded in the model

36. Final remarks International aquaculture has a number of biosecurity and physical concerns that pose risks and hazards to both its own development and management, and to the aquatic environment and the human society RA in aquaculture should be used to assess both risk to society and environment and from society and environment to aquaculture RA can be used to improved sustainability, profitability and public’s perception of the sector

37. Thank you for your attention