1. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory SAN FRANCISCO BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM Background and Planning Meetings Background and Planning Meetings Historical Perspectives Historical Perspectives Recent Perspectives Recent Perspectives Key Hydrodynamic Processes Key Hydrodynamic Processes PORTS PORTS Suggested Approaches Suggested Approaches Next Steps Next Steps Richard A. Schmalz July 19, 2010

2. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Background and Planning Meetings October 9, 2009 CSDL Preliminary Planning Meeting October 9, 2009 CSDL Preliminary Planning Meeting IOOS/RA Reviews California Coastline IOOS/RA Reviews California Coastline USGS San Francisco Bay Modeling Review USGS San Francisco Bay Modeling Review May 6, 2010 CSDL Follow-up Planning Meeting May 6, 2010 CSDL Follow-up Planning Meeting FVCOM User Workshop Review FVCOM User Workshop Review California Current System Modeling Review California Current System Modeling Review AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting Abstract Reviews AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting Abstract Reviews

3. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Historical Perspective NOS 1979-1980 Circulation Survey Report 7 R.T. Cheng, USGS retired, OFS—2d TRIM Customized windfield provided by F. Ludwig, Stanford University Customized windfield provided by F. Ludwig, Stanford University website semi-operational---R. Smith, USGS website semi-operational---R. Smith, USGS

4. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

5. Recent Perspectives NOS Historical Circulation Survey Data Restoration CSDL Tech Note 9. NOS Historical Circulation Survey Data Restoration CSDL Tech Note 9. Movement towards 3d unstructured grids in recent model studies: unTRIM, SUNTANS, and FVCOM. Movement towards 3d unstructured grids in recent model studies: unTRIM, SUNTANS, and FVCOM. San Francisco Bay-Delta UnTRIM Model Calibration Report, California Department of Water Resources, December 2008. San Francisco Bay-Delta UnTRIM Model Calibration Report, California Department of Water Resources, December 2008.

6. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

7. Key Hydrodynamic Processes Key Hydrodynamic Processes Upwelling/Downwelling dynamics—California Current (ROMS OSU and JPL models) Upwelling/Downwelling dynamics—California Current (ROMS OSU and JPL models) Internal wave generation—nonhydrostatic SUNTANS and ROMS coupling (Fringer et al., Oceanography, 2006) Internal wave generation—nonhydrostatic SUNTANS and ROMS coupling (Fringer et al., Oceanography, 2006) Shelf-Bay interaction Shelf-Bay interaction Salinity intrusion and Delta dynamics Salinity intrusion and Delta dynamics Wetting-drying of tidal flats in the northern Bay Wetting-drying of tidal flats in the northern Bay Inundation associated with coastal storms Inundation associated with coastal storms

8. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

10. USGS/NOS Real-time C/T Sensors USGS/NOS Real-time C/T Sensors Plans for USGS real-time C/T sensor network Plans for USGS real-time C/T sensor network Proposed addition of PORTS C/T sensors at all Proposed addition of PORTS C/T sensors at all PORTS water level gauges pending funding PORTS water level gauges pending funding Cooperation with USGS in station location selection Cooperation with USGS in station location selection and maintenance of selected stations and maintenance of selected stations

11. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory VDATUM California Coast Grid

12. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory VDATUM Grid in the vicinity of San Francisco Bay

13. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory VDATUM San Francisco Bay Bathymetry

14. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Suggested Phase I Tasks Use FVCOM Version 3.1 Use FVCOM Version 3.1 Modify VDATUM California grid using SMS Modify VDATUM California grid using SMS Consider Apr-May 1979 and Sep-Oct 1980 Consider Apr-May 1979 and Sep-Oct 1980 for initial tidal and hindcast simulations for initial tidal and hindcast simulations

15. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory USGS/NOS Modeling Cooperative Efforts Phase I consistent with recent unstructured grid modeling approaches, builds on VDATUM grid and bathymetry, and uses recovered historical NOS data employed by Ralph Cheng, USGS, for comparison of modeling results. Phase I consistent with recent unstructured grid modeling approaches, builds on VDATUM grid and bathymetry, and uses recovered historical NOS data employed by Ralph Cheng, USGS, for comparison of modeling results. Unstructured modeling approach allows NOS FVCOM modeling approach to be coordinated with unTRIM modeling efforts by Jon Burau, USGS, Sacramento. Unstructured modeling approach allows NOS FVCOM modeling approach to be coordinated with unTRIM modeling efforts by Jon Burau, USGS, Sacramento. Assistance and cooperation in the development of the Delta inflow boundary conditions, particularly during the historical 1979-1980 hindcast. Assistance and cooperation in the development of the Delta inflow boundary conditions, particularly during the historical 1979-1980 hindcast.

16. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Suggested Phase II Tasks Suggested Phase II Tasks Extend the tidal and hindcast periods from April 1979 – October 1980. Extend the tidal and hindcast periods from April 1979 – October 1980. Perform formal tidal and hindcast skill assessments. Perform formal tidal and hindcast skill assessments. Efforts underway with USGS: Efforts underway with USGS: Ralph Cheng, Jeff Gartner, and Jon Burau to obtain CTD and current meter datasets. Ralph Cheng, Jeff Gartner, and Jon Burau to obtain CTD and current meter datasets.

17. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Suggested Phase III Tasks Transfer and couple San Francisco Bay FVCOM to shelf forecast models at NCEP Transfer and couple San Francisco Bay FVCOM to shelf forecast models at NCEP ETSS/G-NCOM ETSS/G-NCOM NOS West Coast Shelf Model NOS West Coast Shelf Model Perform formal skill assessment of NCEP coupled San Francisco Bay FVCOM nowcasts and forecasts Perform formal skill assessment of NCEP coupled San Francisco Bay FVCOM nowcasts and forecasts

18. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Next Steps Review and edit NOS Circulation Survey Current, CT, and CTD datasets Review and edit NOS Circulation Survey Current, CT, and CTD datasets Obtain historical water level data 1979-1980 Obtain historical water level data 1979-1980 Obtain water level and PORTS current station HA results Obtain water level and PORTS current station HA results Perform HA (15-day) on historical current data Perform HA (15-day) on historical current data Revise VDATUM grid and bathymetries Revise VDATUM grid and bathymetries Develop additional water level, current, and density Develop additional water level, current, and density station locations---  initially measure conductivity at PORTS water level stations. station locations---  initially measure conductivity at PORTS water level stations.

19. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory OrganizationRoleComments OCS/CSDL/MMAPSponsor NOS/CO-OPSSponsor, Stakeholder, Customer NWS/NCEPSponsor, Stakeholder, Customer IOOS Regional AssociationsStakeholder USGSStakeholder Marine navigation communityEnd user Emergency response communityEnd user Environmental management communityEnd user Stakeholders

20. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

21. Milestone DurationCompletion Date Concept Approve Project Charter1 monthJuly 2010 Feasibility Review of existing models; observation data mining & analysis2 monthsAugust 2010 Gate review/Approve Feasibility Summary1 monthAugust 2010 Project Planning (Detailed) Key planning tasks1 monthSeptember 2010 Develop PMP2 monthsOctober 2010 Gate review/Approval of the PMP Executive Summary1 monthOctober 2010 Development and Testing Model set up6 monthsMarch 2011 Tidal skill assesment4 monthsJuly 2011 Hindcast skill assessment6 monthsJanuary 2012 Nowcast/Forecast skill assessment4 monthsMay 2012 Gate review1 monthJune 2012 Deployment Nowcast/forecast system implementation2 monthsAugust 2012 Customer acceptance (CO-OPS)1 monthSeptember 2012 Gate review1 monthSeptember 2012 Project Closure 1 monthOctober 2012 High Level Project Schedule and Milestones

22. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Project Initiation Team Role No.Who (if known) or TBD % Time or Hours Dates Needed (Date Range) Name of Manager MMAP Supervisor1Frank Aikman10%On-goingMary Erickson Project Manager1Richard Schmalz50%5/2010-10/2012Frank Aikman Physical Scientist support1Philip Richardson50%5/2010-10/2012Frank Aikman FVCOM Consultation2Changshen Chen and Robert Beardsley 60 hrs ea7/2010-10/2012Frank Aikman CO-OPS transition to operations 1Aijun Zhang10%7/2010-10/2012Peter Stone NCEP/NCO support1Chris Magee10%7/2010-10/2012Ben Kyger Resource Requirements for Project Planning (High Level).