1. Portuguese NEC Programme (PTEN) Workshop on Plans and Programmes of Air Quality and NEC Directives Brussels, September 2004

2. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Overview Setting up PTEN PTEN: Portuguese NEC Programme Projections and its uncertainty National Economic growth Articulation with related policies Emissions Monitoring NEC Consistent reporting Future work

3. Setting up PTEN

4. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Business as Usual Scenario Reference Scenario 2010 Policy Instruments in Place, 2010 2000 Emissions Sector scenarios for energy demand Emissions estimates – BAU scenario Assessment of effectiveness of Policy instruments in place Emissions estimates – Reference scenario Assessment of the additional emission reduction effort Identification of additional necessary emission reduction Policies & Measures Methodology framework

5. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Information base – national emission inventories; year 2000 Sector validation with stakeholders – improvement of National inventories and increase awareness of involved parties 2 versions: 2002 and 2004 Improvements in previous version were made within the scope of CAFE bilateral consultation process Developed simultaneously with National Climate Change Programme Better articulation with Energy, Transport and Climate Change Policies Methodology framework

6. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Adoption and implementation Enforcement of policy instruments already in place (Reference scenario) Follow-up of compliance with national commitments Divulgation of PTEN to stakeholders – sector meetings

7. Portuguese NEC Programme

8. Brussels, September 2004 Projections - methodology Demographic scenarios Energy demand model Energy supply models Electricity generation expansion plans Policy instruments in place Processes emissions Macroeconomic & sector scenarios Emissions

9. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Projections Macro-economic & sector scenarios Sector validation with stakeholders (cement, pulp & paper, refineries, electricity supply, glass, ceramics) Two scenarios: low and high growth Uncertainty is assumed, although no quantification Lack of certainty regarding the assessed 2010 effectiveness of the policy instruments in place IPPC allows for great flexibility in setting Emission Limit Values Lack of detailed knowledge on the universe of activities within the scope of solvent and transport Directives

10. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Projections Identified divergences with EU scenarios PTEN has a sector approach vs technology used in EU wide scenarios which somehow hampers detailed comparison Energy supply & demand – e.g. PTEN considers: CHP in 2000; no new capacity of Coal Power Plants in 2010; 1.64 Mtoe (PRIMES 0.94 Mtoe ) oil consumption in thermal power production in 2010 Emission Factors – e.g. level of implementation of certain end- of-pipe technologies and its effectiveness (e.g. PTEN considers 0.27kt NOx/PJ for low NOx burners – RAINS considers 0.39) Policy instruments – e.g. PTEN considers 100% effectiveness of adopted instruments (e.g. 39% power generated from renewable resources in 2010)

11. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 National Economic Growth Macro-economic scenarios in use by the Portuguese Government GDP annual real growth rate

12. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Articulation with related policies NOx, SO2, Ozone Emission, Air Quality Framework Directive GHG Emissions, Burden Sharing Agreement_Kyoto Protocol (...) Air Quality PTEN EU Policy InstrumentsNational Policy Instruments Under implementation or final development IPPC Directive(96/61/EC) LCP Directive(2001/80/EC) Directive E-FRE (2001/77/EC) Directives S content in Fuels; Env. Charact. Fuel (2000/71/EC & 98/70/EC) Directive NMVOC Solvents (99/13/EC) Directive S content in Fuel (1999/32/EC) Directive NMVOC Gasoline (94/63/EC) Other instruments ACEA Agreement Burden Sharing Agreement; ECCP Under implementation (regulatory & other) Ordnance 646/97 (NMVOC Gasoline) Decree-Law 194/2000 (IPPC) Decree-Law 242/2001 (NMVOC Solvents) POE_Rev. MAPE (Ordn. 383/2002) Programme E4 (Res. CM 154/2001) Programme 3E Programme Solar Heated Water Portugal Reviewed Expansion Plan for the Electricity Supply Portuguese Energy Policy Guidelines (Res. CM 63/2003) National Climate Change Programme (PNAC) Plan for National Network of Logistic Platforms

13. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Emissions: Reductions due to current P&M Policies & MeasuresSO 2 Directive 98/70/EC (S content of fuels – agriculture) not assessed Directives 99/32/EC (S content of fuels) 29-31 IPPC (& LCP) Directives 80 E-FRE, E4 17-8 Reviewed expansion plan for electricity supply 17-8 Solar H 2 O, Energy efficiency in buildings 0.3-0.4 Total reduction 130-122 Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.d. Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 0.029 Bio-fuels 0.042 Total reduction 0.07 Reductions in 2010 (kton) Transports Energy supply & demand Total SO 2 reduction131-122

14. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Emissions: Reductions due to current P&M Policies & MeasuresNO x IPPC (& LCP) Directives 25-26 E-FRE, E4 6-5 Reviewed expansion plan for electricity supply 5-4 Solar H 2 O, Energy efficiency in buildings 0.8-0.96 Total reduction 34-33 Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.d. Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 3-3 Bio-fuels 1 Total reduction 4 Reductions in 2010 (kton) Transports Total NO x reduction38 - 37 Energy supply & demand

15. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Emissions: Reductions due to current P&M Policies & MeasuresNMVOC IPPC Directive 21-22 Directive 94/63/EC (gasoline storage) 8-9 Directive 99/13/EC (solvents) 15-17 Total reduction 44-48 Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.a. Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 1 Bio-fuels 3 Total reduction 4 Reductions in 2010 (kton) Transports Fuel supply & Solvent consumption Total NMVOC reduction48 - 52

16. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Emissions: Reductions due to current P&M Policies & MeasuresNH 3 IPPC Directive (production of fertilisers) 3-4 Total reduction 3-4 IPPC Directive 10 Total reduction 10 Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 and ACEA n.d. Auto-oil (voluntary agreements) 0.1 Bio-fuels 0.3 Total reduction 0.4 Reductions in 2010 (kton) Transports Industry Livestock Total NH 3 reduction14

17. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Related policies - CChange Assessed reduction potential of non-GHG from PNAC additional measures for transportation SO 2 NO x NMVOCNH 3 Reduction in 2010 (kt) 0.0958.6485.7100.57

18. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 National Emissions 21 to 42 kt

19. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Sector breakdown 2010 (low scenario) kt

20. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Sector breakdown 2010 (high scenario) kt

21. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Compliance with NMVOC NEC High uncertainty of NMVOC national inventories Emissions in 2010 (kt)LowHigh Business as Usual Scenario248.1273.6 Reference Scenario200.7221.9 Distance to target-20.7-41.9 Paints & Varnishes Directive-10.4-11.3 Expected reduction IPPC chemical sector-4.9-5.7 Additional GHG reduction measures for Transport-5.7 Distance to target+0.3-19.2 Improved wood combustion tech. residential sector (high uncertainty of potential effectiveness) -4.8-5.1

22. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 NMVOC Emissions Required reduction of 21-42 kt in 2010 EU Directive for Paints and Varnishes will reduce 10- 11kt in 2010 56-60kt emitted in 2010 from activities out of the scope of current and planned P&M: % of 2010 total emissions Use of diverse products in residential sector11 (20-23kt) Wood combustion in residential sector8-7 (16kt) Combustion in industry and construction4 (7-8kt) Road paving with asphalt2 (3-4kt) Burning of agricultural waste2 (3kt) Other activities (e.g. bread & wine production, waste water) 2 (7-6kt)

23. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Monitoring PTENs monitoring developed on 2 levels: Emissions – continual improvement of national inventories Policy measures – depends on the owner of the policy 3 key-monitoring moments: 2005, 2008, 2010 Public governance Stakeholders Policy instruments A BC A – Responsibility B – Execution C – Monitoring

24. Future work

25. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Future work EU Mainstreaming reporting obligation New EU instruments on NMVOC reduction on: several residential products (e.g. waxes, detergents, cosmetics) combustion in residential sector asphalt paving Portugal Improve national NMVOC inventories Improve characterization of combustion in residential sector (number and type of equipments, date of implementation, etc.) …

26. Portuguese NEC Programme Brussels, September 2004 Related policies – Air quality SO 2 : P&M within PTEN relevant but not decisive NO x : Transport P&M quite relevant O 3 : insufficient information to decide on importance of P&M Policies & Measures within PTEN1h8-24h1yrLocalRegionalNational Directive 98/70/EC - * Directives LCP, 99/32/EC *** Directives 99/13/EC,94/63/EC ** E-FRE, E4, Expansion electricity system * Energy efficiency in buildings - Solar Water Heating - IPPC Directive *** Directives 98/69, 98/70, 99/32 *** Bio-fuels & Auto-oil - Air Quality Improvements * Scale of effects - - Not significant ImprovementDecisive improvement